Posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Sunday, November 04, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.
These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.
One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Wth is that?
Seriously. What is that?
“Romney may win, but not decisively. That says a lot about the state of the electorate and none of it is good. America is in decline. There is no doubt about that. A failed, divisive, incompetent President like Obama should not be able to pull almost 50% of the vote.”
Agree that America is (currently) in decline. However, you must also cite the corruption media tail wind that every D receives - millions worth of free TV prop up and emotional support and defense, and in contrast attack and undermining of the R message. How many points is that worth? How much of that bump can be laid at the feet of average Americans? We’re finally beginning to see the reverse of that, with that old media dying - but not yet. That old, dying advantage, though dying out more and more each year, is still worth I think 5 or 10 points easily to the D TOTUS or candidate. So perhaps America is not as far dead, as we think, and is more manipulated and the target of the psychological war of the Rat corrupted media.
Just sayin’...
I’ve said this the last few days...
Ras and every other pollster has GIGO data - it all rests on a big assumption.
If that assumption is wrong - so is the result! No one can call the election this year because no one really knows if the model is a good fit to the data.
And I think they’re looking for data that validates their model. All the polls, including Ras are way off!
Marxist stuck at 48%. ALL polls show this when taken in totality. Romney will win 51-48 (1% other) with circa 300 EV’s, +/- 15 EV’s.
I heard/saw Christie verbally hugging Hussein, going on and on about how Hussein was helping them. He could have stopped with one sentence but he kept gushing and gushing. My mouth dropped open when I heard/saw that.
At that time, Christie was a wuss crybaby. It appears he is like a fellow I knew - this guy was a big, tall guy, who never stopped talking and posturing - yet, if there was a hurricane coming that was 150 miles away from his house (his house was on high ground with no body of water that could hurt him), he would pack up and leave the state, going to his son's house. With all his loud talk, if politics got really nasty, he would again pack up and leave the state.
You wouldn't want to trust that guy to stand beside you in a time of trouble - he was leaving. Christie reminded me of that man - there is big trouble for Christie and he wimped out, almost kissing Hussein’s “Allah is great” ring. We saw the real Christie under his bluster. This is my opinion.
Right. But not surprised that CiC bunkum would help some of his base stragglers home, at all. The key is what my astute colleagues are saying, no way does GOP run under 95%.
So he must be getting too much noise in his data (or simply not enough GOP response), and thusly on shifting ground D+~n.
You've never seen that graphic here before? It's probably been posted here thousands of times. I believe it's a still shot from a YouTube video of a girl who complained about people criticizing Obama some years back. Dunno, but it's been viral over the internet for a long time now.
I thought it was a perfect response the doom and gloom post I replied to.
And you said it well, Bruce. Thanks.
Now things are trending back to Romney... and one must look to the campaigns and where they are and what they are saying and the reaction of Americans to it. When one does that... all evidence points to a Romney victory. I have lived through this exact same thing before. I also remember the misery here on FR when the media tried to steal the election for kerry in 2004... with their lying exit poll data and its supression of the vote in the panhandle of Florida. Well we are smarter today and the pollsters are just as ignorant and/or corrupt as they were in 2004.
LLS
I’ve seen it a million times, going back to the original Britney Spears meme...it’s just...every time I see that, I have the same reaction.
2008 was obviously a modern historical anomaly caused by a deeply unpopular Republican in the White House and a financial crisis etc as opposed to a revolutionary, transformational event. Cell phones and hurricane Sandy have not made voting trends in this country fundamentally unpredictable. Americans can still be polled and pollsters will have a much better template in terms of demographics and where to look for future models after Tuesday.
The NBC Election site social media tracker registered another bump for Romney yesterday in terms of announced candidate support online.
Whether this is realistic or not to the real vote, who knows until it happens, but right now Romney is comfortably ahead in the support metric via the Internet.
This follows several days of Obama being ahead during and after Sandy.
I hope this is a good predictor of enthusiasm and the actual vote.
As for this poll, VERY VERY VERY GLAD TO SEE INDIES SUPPORTING ROMNEY BY A BIGGER MARGIN AGAIN after seeing other polls drop that margin (including Rass before today).
It's not absurd. Many conservatives will not vote for Romney and that was backed up by his grabbing the Republican Party for liberals at the national convention. He lost many votes of the party conservatives when he did that. Many Christian Republicans aren't voting for him, either. I don't know that they will vote third party, but I believe they did, and will, skip the ballot presidential vote line.
I suppose we will see an analysis of the vote after the election, and then we will know.
The thing is, people become numb after awhile. The economy has been bad for so long that people just kind of “got used to it.”
That’s why many are just okay with the status quo.
If this were 2010, there is no doubt we would see a huge Romney victory. But, two years later, it will be closer.
LLS
There’s another thing that gives me hope for the future of the country. The Leftward lurch on social issues over the last several decades is something that primarily appeals to people who are either single or childless. Married couples with kids are much more Conservative.
30-40 years ago, you didn’t have so many single and childless adults. Pretty much everyone got married and had kids, and being a Democrat was much more about economic issues.
I’m 50 years old and I know so many of my peers who are childless and who either never married or waited until they were well into their 40’s to marry and don’t plan on having kids. And they’re all Liberals. All scared to death about religious Christians in “Jesusland”. All obsessed with global warming. All convinced that the era when divorce rates, teen pregnancies rates, and out of wedlock birth rates were much, much lower than today (along with abortion rates, which logically follows the other statistics) was “the dark ages”.
Raising a family adds a dimension to your life that changes your perspective on many things. I’m a real estate agent and I was recently showing apartments to a single Gay guy. One apartment that I showed him overlooked a courtyard with a small private playground that hardly ever gets used. He said to me, “sorry, but I don’t do kids”.
While it’s not pleasant to listen a baby crying or a toddler having a temper tantrum, the fact is, people never used to talk like that about children years ago. You didn’t have this whole culture of people who were proud of being childless.
So I’m optimistic that the future belongs to the children, the majority of whom will grow up with more Conservative values.
Well it isn’t my job on the line so the panic among pollsters is understandable this cycle but given the obvious systemic biases from 2008 as new patterns and baselines emerge they will hopefully be able to at least roughly pick this up, account for the new information and adjust their projections accordingly.
DATE DAY OBAMA ROMNEY 28-Oct SUN 47 50 29-Oct MON 47 47 30-Oct TUE 47 50 31-Oct WED 47 50 1-Nov THU 47 47 2-Nov FRI 50 47 3-Nov SAT 47 50
NH,
I am having a brain (rhymes with “gart”)
What do I have to do to get the Presidential matchup DAILY crosstabs on the Platinum portion of RAS
BTW, I did confirm that he was using D+4 till last week
Cheers!
Oct 22-28 D+4 Oct 15-21 D+2 Oct 08-14 D+1 Oct 01-07 D+3 Sep 24-30 D+3 Sep 17-23 D+2
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