Posted on 11/04/2012 1:13:19 PM PST by Red Steel
See here is my problem with that meme. No one has counted the votes yet so how can they say x number of votes more for Romney? It "Sounds" good and all but this is not my first Rodeo. I'll believe it WHEN those votes are counted. I know a few things about Ohio. One is Democrats will win the Cleveland area. And they will win IN Cincy. But most everything else can go either way (Though some areas in Columbus are starting to go Hard Blue in these last few elections.)
Karl Rove was the first I heard touting the GOP early voting meme. He is also the same guy the told us we would hold the House and Senate in 2006. So I take what he sez with a grain of salt.
I’ll stick with Michael Barone’s prediction,thank you very much.
So why should we believe a PEW poll with an absurd +6 Dem oversampled and not the every bit as historically accurate Ras poll which shows the race tied?
Let not fool ourselves by clinging to our knee jerk Eyeore opinions that lead us to believe a +6 Democrat sample in the Pew is a “real poll”.
Correct that oversampled D to a rational +4 Dem sample and you get Romney 49, 0bama 47 which is right in line with all the other polling out there
PEW used a 41D 35R 24Indy sample
They massively oversampled Dems +6. Correct for a rational sample mix of +4 Dems and you get 48 0-49 R just like the real polls are showing.
You both mindlessly cling to your ignorant emotion based opinions in the face of ALL contradictory fact.
The Christie Effect continues to have legs.
This is my only question...and I’m not trying to be contrarian.... I really just don’t understand this D+ stuff. Do they just call a whole bunch of random people and it so happens that they get 6% more democrats? Because in that case, yeah I’m worried because even if it doesn’t match up with the country’s registration numbers, it’s probably likely that people are just self-identifying as Dems because they’re going to vote that way. On the other hand, if they are purposefully weighting these polls to get D+ whatever... Then yeah its bull based on an assumption. Which it is, I don’t know.
They weight the poll based on what the assume the electorate looks like. See any evidence in your day to day life that Obama is generating the same support in 2012 he did in 2008? PEW pollsters think he is.
Well, an impact is likely the Sandy bounce, but it’s concentrated in Obama states anyway:
“Another notable gain for Obama, perhaps reflecting Hurricane Sandy’s effect on the race, comes in a region he was already secure in: the Northeast. He has increased his lead over Romney from nine points (52%-43%) to 21 points (56%-35%) there over just the past week.”
The math is simple. Virtually all the polls are trending towards Obama. Period. This now includes the WaPo tracker, Pew, even Rasmussen is tied now where Mitt once led. You can say they are all wrong, but I find that highly unlikely. What I see is Republicans forced to dispute nearly every poll - mostly with the same argument that the sample is wrong. Fine. We will know the truth Wednesday morning. I don't know for sure what will happen, but it looks to me like Obama will win a narrow victory. If this election were going to Mitt, we'd have seen the opposite of how these last minute polls are coming in.
I don't know where you get that I hate Romney considering I was one of the people defending him when this site was anti-Romney. He wasn't my first choice, but I won't have any trouble voting for him. The problem is, you don't like objectivity. You are burying your head because you don't want to hear bad news. I sympathize with that, but I just refuse to ignore unhappy facts.
PU must have had a spare bottle of Zogby sauce stored in the pantry for this one.
Dims love to sway elections by showing their candidate breaking at the end.
Source, please.
So don’t posutre as if you are bothering to THINK about this cause your posting history shows you are NOT thinking.
Still waiting. Why are we suppose to believe THIS poll and not Rass which was every bit as accurate in 2008 and shows a tie race?
Could it be because you are still clinging to your sour grapes that your candidate lost the 2012 GOP nomination and you emotionally want this poll to be accurate?
Alright then. Everyone else is wrong, and you are right. No one else has a valid point, only you understand that nearly every poll out there is wrong. Only you have an explanation for why the polls aren't breaking for Romney - and instead seem to be drifting to Hussein.
That's fine Johnnie. You get to be obnoxious for the next 2 days, but if the polls are right and Obama wins you are going to owe me and anyone else you raged at a huge apology. I do not buy that the polls are all wrong, but yes, I concede I could be wrong. However if you are wrong, it is going to crush you since it appears you haven't even allowed for the possibility.
I think we are looking at Obama winning a roughly 51-49 election. I hope it goes the other way, but there it is. I think Mitt had a little momentum (probably not enough to win), but hurricane Sandy broke it and pushed the majority of the remaining undecideds into the Obama camp.
So short answer, NO you have NO rational explanation you merely WANT to believe the PEW poll to validate your sour grapes.
So don’t accuse everyone else here of doing what YOU are doing.
Based on what evidence?
This election will come down to turnout. Which side gets its voters to the polls will decide the outcome of the election.
You make no allowance for Republican voter enthusiasm which is simply off the scale.
Michael Barone, George Will and others have said it’ll be a comfortable Romney win.
Obama is struggling to hold onto states he should have safely locked up. Its being fought in PA, WI, MI and IA - states that went big for Obama four years ago.
I do concede the polls could be right and Obama could win narrowly. But a lot would have to break his way for that to happen. A President under 50% almost always goes on to lose.
It ain’t over yet.
What are you babbling about? I am not making up my mind how I think the election will go based ONLY on Pew. Rasmussen had Romney in the lead for awhile and that has since slipped to a tie. The state polls are closer these days, but more still seem to favor Obama in the swing states. I don't see evidence that Romney has any surge going in his direction the last few days. I just saw the WaPo tracker moved to Obama +1. It just looks to me like Obama is going to win a close election. I hope that doesn't happen, but that is the way I see it playing out. It's a horrible outcome and one I don't think this nation will be able to recover from.
On in 2008 and that was s easy election and Obans folks were handing out their internals to fellow travelers like Pew !
Pew is a farrrrrr left wing wacko front group .
Notice all the concerned trolls are swarming here .
No coincidence.
It’s there last chance to spread dismay and its over themes !
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