Posted on 11/04/2012 1:13:19 PM PST by Red Steel
+1.
Since Obama has been elected and the Obamacare fiasco went down she has inundated me with emails and links on how bad Obama is (even though she voted for him) She asked me before the primaries who I thought would get the Nod for Repub and I told her it will probably be Romney.
I kept my opinion of him to myself so she checked him out and since then has sent me all sorts of links and emails on the good thins Romney has done.
This stopped a few months ago but I never asked why. I don't like to get too much into politics with close family being I am Conservative and most of them are Democrats.
Well today my Mom started telling me how bad Romney is. I asked her where she got her info and she said from all the commercials on TV. She's not voting for Romney because he is going to cut Medicare etc. Now she claims she won't vote for Obama either but this little bit of anecdotal evidence shows you the power of negative ads.
Polls are guesses and that is all they are. Tuesday will tell the tale but all those Negative ads are having an effect. And I am willing to bet they are affecting both sides. I've heard several pundits poohpoohing TV ads saying they aren't that effective, but isn't it interesting all the campaigns still spend big bucks on them?
I think it is going to be close in Ohio just from reports I am getting from the Northern Early voting Districts(Long Lines the last couple of days in Heavy Union country)
I am going to watch the counties around Cincy and Columbus. If they Trend Romney then he should win Ohio. But if he doesn't stay close there or win then I think Obama takes it.
YouGov just released a huge poll (http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf), showing O 48.5, R 46.5. In 2008 they were quite good as well.
So, the national polls and state polls appear to drift closer now.
YouGov just released a huge poll (http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf), showing O 48.5, R 46.5. In 2008 they were quite good as well.
So, the national polls and state polls appear to drift closer now.
Pew has overestimated the D turnout, pure and simple.
So, it is you and the other naysayers on FR who aren't being objective.
See you on the 7th so you can tell me how accurate Pew was.
Good find, thanks.
It will be interesting to compare this “before” to the real “after” results of Romney versus The Media’s Benghazi-Coward Obama.
Do you think Pew is correct in assuming that there will be a 6.3 % turnout advantage for Democrats? ...and, if so, why?
Princeton University polls, here for PEW, is as bad as Quinnipiac U pollsters.
Ohio GOP EV has already virtually wiped out the lead Obama won by in 08 (250,000).
Ohio GOP EV has already virtually wiped out the lead Obama won by in 08 (250,000).
Ohio GOP EV has already virtually wiped out the lead Obama won by in 08 (250,000).
I couldn't tell by looking at the page.
Amen~~ I am making a FR list of posters I will look for on the 7th. I just added two more names from this thread :)
There is another factor as well and that is prayer! There are many, many churches, organizations, etc. that are holding prayer this weekend and on until Tuesday. I am praying, voting,working hard, and staying positive (in that order)
I couldn't tell by looking at the page.
You realize that Gallup was wildly inaccurate in 2008 and Pew was nearly dead on. Gallup’s final tracking poll had Obama winning the 2008 election by 11 points and wasn’t even close. Meanwhile Pew nailed the final election results in 2004 and 2008. I’m sorry, but you shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss polls you don’t like - especially ones with a decent track record like Pew.
They massively oversampled Dems +6. Correct for a rational sample mix of +4 Dems and you get 48 0-49 R just like the real polls are showing.
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf
Way down near the end of the PDF file they give their weighting
If the internals are off they’re off. Period. I don’t care about they’re track record. They are counting on a +6 D turnout that most other pollsters think is ridiculous. Also take into account early voting numbers. D turnout down across the board.
Correct that oversampled D to a rational +4 Dem sample and you get Romney 49, 0bama 47 which is right in line with all the other polling out there.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.