[SoftwareEngineer]

FINAL DAILY COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER (w/RAS INTERNALS)

The final numbers are in. R:49 O:48. This still includes the good SAT numbers for the President. They did not fall off yet

Let us break down the numbers:

• True number should have been R:50 O:48 but ONCE AGAIN the "Lean Romney" number is rounded down to zero
• Only 87% of Republicans are shown voting for the Governor. UNBELIEVABLE
• Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans will vote for the President. UNBELIEVABLE
• Right Track/Wrong Track Nationally is 44/53. Seems too high
• RT/WT for Asians and Hispanics is 47/50. Seems too high
• Governor leads Independents by 14
• The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE
• Approval Index is -22% for Independents. GOOD!
  
  Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24
  
  Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (87*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 49.35
  Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (12*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 47.88
  
  Now, as I have said in my previous commentaries, I find the Republican voter number for the Governor (87%) unbelievable. Every other survey (including liberal ones) find the number to be near 95%. So, let us run the SAME numbers (above) with just one change i.e. assume that 95% of Republicans vote for the Governor
  
  Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (95*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 52.31
  Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (05*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 45.29
  
  So final tally: R:52 O:45
  If you throw 1% to "Other" and split the other 2% between the two then your final tally becomes:
  
  R:53 O:46
  
  FINAL THOUGHTS: In less than 12 hours it will become clear how right or wrong I was. Unlike Nate Silver, I do not claim powers of soothsaying or divinity. I am just an Engineer and my data is only as good as the input (Rasmussen's numbers) and my analysis (the best I can do)
  
  I truly appreciate the help everyone has given and I raise my toast in anticipation of a great victory by the Governor
  
  NOTE: Many numbers used here are internal and not available on the link above

[SoftwareEngineer]

My final commentary ping:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955659/posts#28

[Tennessean4Bush]

What were the “good” Sat numbers for Obama? 50-47, 51-46, 49-48?

[InterceptPoint]

Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24

Why don't you re-run your calculation with the only change being D/R/I = 38/38/24?

[SomeCallMeTim]

The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE

THANKS A TON, SE, for all the daily posts and analysis. It's been very interesting to read.

This gender gap thing worries me too. Women make up a LOT more of the voting public these days... Seems hard to win an election if the group that votes the most, is voting for the OTHER guy.

Really... amazing dichotomy in this election. The MACRO issues scream R+4 turnout... HUGE Romney win. But, the MICRO factors seem to say "close win for Zero".

I guess... we'll find out today. I'll be watching Virginia and Philly, early

[MyDogAteMyBallot]

“The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE”

This is embarrassing—I may have to consider a sex change operation

[jwalsh07]

Gallups final had the indies even and the same final number 49-48. That is only because there poll shows an R+1 turnout. Ras has indies +14. These are not small samples of indies in rolling averages so statistically their numbers are outside the MOE. Weird polling this year. They all coalesced to a tie within MOE but all got there different ways.

[twigs]

FWIW, my husband is a dem and voted a straight Republican ticket.

[kevao]

Thanks for all your valuable analyses during these weeks. Very much appreciated.

[Mike Darancette]

You may well eat Silver’s lunch.