Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Dick Morris: Why I Was Wrong
National Review ^

Posted on 11/07/2012 12:06:52 PM PST by TigerClaws

Dick Morris explains why his prediction was completely off:

I’ve got egg on my face.  I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.  

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels.  Didn’t happen.  These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay.  And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.  

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-5051-98 last
To: TigerClaws

Hindsight is always 20/20, isn’t it Dick.


51 posted on 11/07/2012 12:45:58 PM PST by Arm_Bears (Be cheerful, be confident, and VOTE!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America

true


52 posted on 11/07/2012 12:46:06 PM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

Morris was only wrong about the depth of theft that bama and his cretonnes used...


53 posted on 11/07/2012 12:48:59 PM PST by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmacusa
Shut up Dick
54 posted on 11/07/2012 12:49:22 PM PST by Conscience of a Conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: over3Owithabrain
Obama GAINED votes from his base groups - Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Single Women. A lot of votes.

And we laughed thinking zerO's move to get nasty and partison during the campaign in order to appeal to his base was dumb because the infamous indies would win the election. HA
55 posted on 11/07/2012 12:49:26 PM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: over3Owithabrain
[Where did those 10 million white Obama 2008 voters go???]

Very intriguing question. I imagine many Democrats are disillusioned with Obama but not enough to vote Republican so they sit 2012 out. If fraud is responsible for erasing 10 million votes that is likely to come to light eventually.

56 posted on 11/07/2012 12:50:21 PM PST by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: wiseprince
Blow it up from the inside...

Amen!
57 posted on 11/07/2012 12:53:40 PM PST by Quaid
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

“And we laughed thinking zerO’s move to get nasty and partison during the campaign in order to appeal to his base was dumb because the infamous indies would win the election.”

Yeah I have to admit I fell for that. Seemed logical. Traditionally, if you are only pandering to sew up your base late in the election while the other guy is grabbing moderates/indies, you are headed for defeat.

But unless it was just straight out fraud, Team Obama must have calculated their base way wayyyy larger than anything Romney could mobilize and win with. That’s why a campaign that seemed to be running on small ideas and pettiness actually was executing a winning strategy. They have the votes.


58 posted on 11/07/2012 12:54:58 PM PST by over3Owithabrain
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 55 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

I love how Morris tries to dump some of his error on Chris Christie. If you look at the polls before Hurricane Sandy, the results were already baked in. But you have to look at all the polls OTHER than Rasmussen and Gallup who made the same damn mistake that Morris did.

Which brings me to the larger point. Morris is the obvious screw-up here but Gallup and Rasmussen did the EXACT same thing Morris did: made the wrong assumptions.

Gallup and Rasmussen should have known better and not tinkered with their party ID results. If you survey 1000 people and 30% identify as Republican and 40% identify as Democrats THEN THERE IS A +10 DEM ADVANTAGE AND YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS MESSING WITH THAT!

If you survey 1000 people a month later and 35% identify as Republican and 35% identify as Democrats THEN THERE IS NO PARTY ADVANTAGE AND YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS MESSING WITH THAT!

ABC/WashPo said there was a +6 advantage in their final poll and did not weight a damn thing. Exit polls come out election day, +6 dem advantage.

Please let this election be the end of “skewed” talk....it always was and always will be BS.


59 posted on 11/07/2012 12:56:29 PM PST by jackmercer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rwfromkansas
"And screaming deport them is not exactly going to win votes of non-whites. Have to find some way to support the rule of law while not alienating those folks."

Deport them and they don't vote.

60 posted on 11/07/2012 1:04:21 PM PST by StAnDeliver (/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

Whatever. Who cares. If conservatives continue to listen to you we deserve what we get. Just go away, Dick. Go sell your stupid books and newsletters somewhere else.


61 posted on 11/07/2012 1:06:37 PM PST by texaschick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jackmercer

Your analysis is spot on, but this electoral debacle wasn’t caused by Morris’s failure to foresee it. The problem was caused by the strategic delusion that if both parties ran liberals, the public would prefer the Republican liberal.

If given the opportunity, guys like Rove will do it again in 2016.


62 posted on 11/07/2012 1:07:14 PM PST by Tau Food (Praise God. Trust God.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

Whatever. Who cares. If conservatives continue to listen to you we deserve what we get. Just go away, Dick. Go peddle your stupid books and newsletters somewhere else.


63 posted on 11/07/2012 1:08:25 PM PST by texaschick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: C. Edmund Wright

I told husband several days ago, after that first debate, that something wasn’t right; that Obama seemed very unconcerned about how the election would turn out. Knowing how he admires tin pot dictators’ election tactics; I suspected that he already knew that the skids were greased for him - as they always have been. He also has the look of shame about him; a strange, stressed look that probably included the events of Benghazi. I don’t know that for sure; just call me suspicious. - All this sort of stuff will eventually catch up with him and the Clintons as well. Bill has that same craven look about him; Hillary, too.


64 posted on 11/07/2012 1:12:16 PM PST by Twinkie (REMEMBER BENGHAZI !!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: apillar
"In the future, I'm forced to give far less weight to Dick and his crew and far more to that liberal pantywaist Nate Silver, as much as I despise doing so."

Looking forward to your crash-and-burn. Zogby nailed two straight before going down in flames re: Kerry.

65 posted on 11/07/2012 1:12:55 PM PST by StAnDeliver (/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

Michael Barone finally put his excuses out as well today.

Harumph!


66 posted on 11/07/2012 1:16:32 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

I admit that I haven’t tried too hard to find it - but does anyone know if Michael Barone has admitted and explained why and how he was wrong?


67 posted on 11/07/2012 1:17:15 PM PST by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: MplsSteve
See here.....

 

Two Americas : the country is no longer culturally cohesive.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012 11:10:56 AM · by teflon9 · 54 replies
National Review Online ^ | November 7, 2012 | Michael Barone

 

68 posted on 11/07/2012 1:24:07 PM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 67 | View Replies]

To: cicero2k

I heartily agree. He has no credibility. Who would be interested in what he has to say anymore? I remember before the health care decision came down, he was saying very assuredly that the SCOTUS was going to overturn the law. And then he was so sure that Pennsylvania would break for Romney. What an idiot!


69 posted on 11/07/2012 1:27:28 PM PST by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Tau Food

“If given the opportunity, guys like Rove will do it again in 2016.”

How the hell Romney got out of the primary I will never know. The primary electorate was, I thought, solidly conservative so Romney had no business winning it. The only explanation I have is that people got scared and thought “we don’t want to look extreme”. Well damn it that’s the second time we did that and the second time it failed. McCain was the “safe” choice as well and look where that got us.

Next time, conservatives need to slap on some b**ls before voting in the primaries.


70 posted on 11/07/2012 1:28:05 PM PST by jackmercer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 62 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

HELLO! We want a real conservative to get excited about! Not some moderate nice guy! We want a bare knuckle fighter for America and our families! We want to live free from fear of a government takeover! We want a return to Biblical moral standards! This is what we want!


71 posted on 11/07/2012 1:33:22 PM PST by vpintheak (Occupy your Brain!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cgbg

WHAT I HAVENT HEARD ANYONE TALK ABOUT IS THE CATHOLIC VOTE. IT IS A PROBLEM THAT GOES BACK A FEW DECADES AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EXCIZE BUT BISHOPS, PRIESTS AND NUNS
UNFAITHFUL AND COWARDLY ARE LARGELY AT FAULT. A FEW GOT EMBOLDENED AFTER THE HHS MANDATE BECAME A REALITY BUT IT WAS
FAR TOO LITTLE TOO LATE. NOMINAL CATHOLICS, INDIVIDUALLY AND AS INSTITUTIONS (PICK ANY JESUIT UNIVERSITY) HAVE BETRAYED THE CHURCH. THERE ARE THREE NON-NEGOTIABLES 1) LIFE IS SACRED AND BEGINS AT CONCEPTION 2) MARRIAGE IS BETWEEN A MAN AND A WOMAN AND 3) RELIGOUS LIBERTY IS AN INVIOLABLE RIGHT. THE DEMOCRATS ARE 0-3 ON THESE TOPICS. IF THE CLERGY HAD SOME CAHONAS AND WOULD PREACH ON THOSE ISSUES RATHER THAN SOCIAL JUSTICE BALLOONS AND BUTTERFLIES THAN MAYBE SOME OF THE LATINOS WOULD HAVE CROSSED OVER. I LIVED IN MEXICO FOR THREE YEARS AND NEVER MET A MEXICAN IN FAVOR OF ABORTION OR SODOMY. ITS A TRAVESTY THAT BISHOP WHIMPY DOESNT EXCOMMUNICATE BIDEN, PELOSI AND HALF THE PRESIDENTS OF SO-CALLED CATHOLIC HIGH SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES FOR PROMOTIING MARXISM AND THE ABOMINATIONS THAT HAVE DESTROYED OUR NATION AND FAITH OF MILLIONS.


72 posted on 11/07/2012 1:33:59 PM PST by SEMPER GAUDETE
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: discostu

Psst-—haven’t you heard? Romney is a MORMON, and they’re crazy! How else to explain Mitt getting 3 MILLION fewer votes than Juan McCain? Fewer than 60 million Americans proved yesterday that they are not fools. Bob


73 posted on 11/07/2012 1:35:05 PM PST by alstewartfan ("I'm a graduate of rock&roll, Class of '58!" Al Stewart)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: TexasFreeper2009

Actually, yes. U.S. mortality is 2.5 million a year, 10 million since last election. If seniors are predominately Republican as exit polls show, that’s 2 million RIP Republicans. And unfortunately, dead ‘pubies don’t vote.


74 posted on 11/07/2012 1:35:37 PM PST by qwertyz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: rwfromkansas

You don’t have to deport anyone, let Obama drive off the cliff, let the bush tax cuts end, let Obamacare be applied, then cut back your hours to 30 or less, lay off your workers and go family buisness only, no non family employees, get all your friend there ebt cards and food stamps, the government goes belly up in know time, the free ride is over. Then after then inner cities implode and burn to the ground we hold the looters off with our home arsenal’s.


75 posted on 11/07/2012 1:37:01 PM PST by qman (The communist usurper must go!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: GreatMan

You are correct....even Jim told us not to vote for Romney as he WOULD NOT....others said they would vote for all on the ticket BUT Romney or not vote at all. Now look who is crying in their beer!!! (What if they left the Pres. vote blank, who says it wasn’t filled in later for “O”?)


76 posted on 11/07/2012 1:55:00 PM PST by GrannyK
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws
I felt sorry for Morris last night. My spouse was watching Morris's tweets and told me that all of a sudden, the tweets went dark. It occurred to me that Morris might have gone off and committed suicide.

But no, I think we will see his round rubicund face pop back up on TV again soon. He hasn't ever stayed away long, even after previous big failures!

Actually I don't blame Morris or Barone for their predictions. I think they were entirely reasonable. The problem was, the composition of the electorate last night was different than any of us could have reasonably predicted.

Who would have predicted, for example, that college kids --who by yesterday must have known they would be facing almost certain unemployment after graduation, if the regime didn't change-- would be stupid enough to vote en masse to continue that very regime?

77 posted on 11/07/2012 1:56:29 PM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: shhrubbery!

Bingo.

Last night broke all templates previously known.

We are done - its over. The fleas have taken over the dog.


78 posted on 11/07/2012 1:59:37 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 77 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws
Mo, when you're wrong, really, really wrong nobody cares why, you were wrong....period..... and no nothing but nothing matters after that.

You're the expert, you're the man making his living at this for forty years, important people give you big bucks for your predictions and analysis. You said all of this...and more so please...eat your crow and clean the plate. and be quiet.

79 posted on 11/07/2012 2:03:14 PM PST by count-your-change (You don't have to be brilliant, not being stupid is enough.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nutmeg

bookmark


80 posted on 11/07/2012 2:05:00 PM PST by nutmeg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Brad from Tennessee
If fraud is responsible for erasing 10 million votes that is likely to come to light eventually.

You are joking, correct?

81 posted on 11/07/2012 2:08:59 PM PST by Digger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

A lot of votes “disappeared”. In fact, just enough votes disappeared to match the polls. Got it? What happened yesterday was a bloodless cou d’tat.


82 posted on 11/07/2012 2:19:41 PM PST by Terry Mross (Once again I wasted my vote. But I have learned my lesson.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: skeeter

Wow, you love Dick....

Isn’t Radar a more suitable venue for you to peruse?

/S

LOL


83 posted on 11/07/2012 2:22:41 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: wiseprince

“Why not just do what the Dems did? Blow it up from the inside and blame the guy in power. This is how you do it

1. Raise Taxes: Let the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone thus raising taxes
2. Fiscal Cliff: Do not raise the debt ceiling
3. Blame Obama for the outcome”

The problem i see is that the media decides who gets the blame, and then relentlessly heap it upon them. Obama will never get the blame. The republican house will get the blame, and endless spin that things aren’t working because government didn’t go far enough. Elect an even more leftist Santa Claus president in 2016, with 55%+ of the vote.


84 posted on 11/07/2012 2:32:39 PM PST by The Good Doctor (Democracy is the only system where you can vote for a tax that you can avoid the obligation to pay.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: wiseprince

“Why not just do what the Dems did? Blow it up from the inside and blame the guy in power. This is how you do it

1. Raise Taxes: Let the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone thus raising taxes
2. Fiscal Cliff: Do not raise the debt ceiling
3. Blame Obama for the outcome”

The problem i see is that the media decides who gets the blame, and then relentlessly heap it upon them. Obama will never get the blame. The republican house will get the blame, and endless spin that things aren’t working because government didn’t go far enough. Elect an even more leftist Santa Claus president in 2016, with 55%+ of the vote.


85 posted on 11/07/2012 2:32:39 PM PST by The Good Doctor (Democracy is the only system where you can vote for a tax that you can avoid the obligation to pay.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Conscience of a Conservative

Dick, did you see how cool Bubba O’Riley played it. Take a hint and just go.


86 posted on 11/07/2012 2:38:38 PM PST by oyez (I think we are done here.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: Vendome

Maybe. In the meantime have you considered CollegeHumor.com?


87 posted on 11/07/2012 2:57:18 PM PST by skeeter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 83 | View Replies]

To: skeeter

I like that site.

It’s hilarious.


88 posted on 11/07/2012 3:07:41 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 87 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America
sorry dick- not buying it...there was no “surge” of obama voters; he got 7 million less votes last night than four years ago and barely 50% of the vote....what everyone missed on was the expectant surge of GOP voters and the myth the enthusiasm was on our side...

One thing that is not being discussed is that there are a lot of potential GOP voters who could not vote for a non-Christian. I'm one of them.

89 posted on 11/07/2012 3:11:57 PM PST by zeugma (Those of us who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: zeugma; All

congratulations- you contributed to another four years of obama....quick question- what’s the difference between a Christian saying they would never vote for a non-Christian and the feelings of some muslims against Christians (excluding the violence of course)???

fact is at heart Romney is a very good person and a lot better than many who parade around and call themselves Christian....


90 posted on 11/07/2012 3:38:32 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 89 | View Replies]

To: Digger

[You are joking, correct?]

It came to light after the 1960 presidential election that massive voter fraud occurred in Illinois that favored JFK. Numerous people tried to get Richard Nixon to file suit but he declined. Nixon said he didn’t want to be party to a constitutional crisis.


91 posted on 11/07/2012 3:42:02 PM PST by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 81 | View Replies]

To: C. Edmund Wright

Re “vaporized” votes. Either 1) the pubbies were lying about the turnout they were seeing yesterday or 2) something very fishy is going on.

Let’s here some hard evidence - show us the data - of your information re strong R turnout vis-a-vis the total vote numbers - specifically in OH and PA. Also, it doesn’t really stand up to the anecdotal evidence of people waiting in LONG lines. I have never seen a line so long in a presidential election. If voter turnout was so much lower than 2008 - why the incredibly long lines?


92 posted on 11/07/2012 3:55:37 PM PST by illinifan (The Left doesn't want you to be upwardly mobile. They want you to be angry and disaffected)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: catfish1957

Rove, like everyone today, was confused about where all of the votes vanished. He was basing his projection on 2008 turnout and Barone was trying to tell him that 2008 turnout didn’t materialize


93 posted on 11/07/2012 6:18:01 PM PST by Homer1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America
congratulations- you contributed to another four years of obama...

bite me.

94 posted on 11/07/2012 7:21:45 PM PST by zeugma (Those of us who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 90 | View Replies]

To: Conscience of a Conservative

Stepped on your toes, did I? Are you a fan of Morris?


95 posted on 11/07/2012 10:52:29 PM PST by jmacusa (Political correctness is cultural Marxism. I'm not a Marxist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: TigerClaws

Morris is WRONG again.

The only reason Obama won was because of his race..period. Blacks never turn our for elections like they did and have for Obama. It will be back to business as usual in the mid-terms and the house will go even more red and the senate will likely go red as well and then guess what? When Bronco Bama is almost done gutting every last drop out of your ass? The Democrats will try out Cory Booker on the nation...let’s see a white liberal win the white house again....ain’t happening pal.

Just ask Gore, Kerry, Dukakis, Carter, and Mondale. Clinton won...why?

Because he acted and claimed to be the “first black president”....catch my drift?


96 posted on 11/07/2012 11:10:38 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (In a world where I feel so small, I can't stop thinking big.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmacusa

No, no, my comment was directed at Morris, not you. My mistake, my post wasn’t clear.


97 posted on 11/08/2012 2:55:08 AM PST by Conscience of a Conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 95 | View Replies]

To: Conscience of a Conservative

Quite alright, no offense taken.


98 posted on 11/08/2012 3:16:42 AM PST by jmacusa (Political correctness is cultural Marxism. I'm not a Marxist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 97 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-5051-98 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson