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To: grey_whiskers
2. The research does not intend, nor is reasonably anticipated to yield a HPAI H5N1 experimental virus which has increased transmissibility, pathogenicity, or expanded host range, unless there is evidence that such a virus could be produced through a natural evolutionary process in the foreseeable future;

I don't have a lot of time, but I wanted to address this point because I think it is a rather important one.

The H5N1 research done so far pretty strongly indicates that a similarly transmissible virus arising through natural evolution is VERY possible and most likely just a matter of time. Every time I read an editorial about frankenvirus, risks of terrorism, and whatever, all I can think is that the fear is misdirected. Mother Nature is the most deadly terrorist that ever existed. We need this research. We need to know if increased transmissibility is coupled with decreased virulence.

12 posted on 12/05/2012 3:54:32 AM PST by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
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To: exDemMom; grey_whiskers; Slings and Arrows; neverdem; Smokin' Joe; MestaMachine; Rushmore Rocks; ...

.

Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Humans, 2012

Overall case fatality rate of 59.0%

WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases

http://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/vrdl/Pages/AvianInfluenzaOutbreaksinHumans.aspx

For more information, see WHO Avian Influenza webpage:

http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/en/

For comparison:

The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died. - With about a third of the world population infected, this case-fatality ratio means 3% to 6% of the entire global population died. - Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million people in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people, while current estimates say 50–100 million people worldwide were killed.

This pandemic has been described as “the greatest medical holocaust in history” and may have killed more people than the Black Death. It is said that this flu killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years, more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic


13 posted on 12/05/2012 12:53:47 PM PST by LucyT
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