when has anyone in this administration been candid about anything?
I would have to agree with this analysis
finding anything positive that would lead to strengthening of the economy is near to impossible
Talk of reducing QE is like an addict taking about cutting down his Oxy dosage.
Great analysis ... until the last paragraph.
“Of course, when the Fed is forced to make this concession, it should be obvious to a critical mass that the recovery is a sham. Investors will realize that years of QE have only exacerbated the problems it was meant to solve. When the grim reality of QE infinity sets in, the dollar will drop, gold will climb, and the real crash will finally be upon us. Buckle up. “
This is not a given. It may happen, but there is a great deal of inertia when it comes to the dollar. In fact, an argument could be made that all of this will strengthen, not weaken, the dollar. Peter Schiff apparently doesn’t recognize that while we have enormous problems, the problems in China, Japan, and Europe, are even greater (by a sizable amount). And far, far greater in most of the so-called emerging markets.
Also, recognition of a bubble does not immediately cause puncturing of that bubble. Investors may be well aware that QE is the only thing holding up prices in RE, bonds, and equities, but until there is some trigger pushing everyone out, the bubble may exist for quite some time. This is especially true, as investors in Europe, Japan, and China look to get out of their domestic economies (a phenomena that is already occurring).
The Fed was pushed hard by certain interests to say that it would tighten up later this year, only if certain parts of the economy improve by then (employment, production, etc.). Some are happy, when bond yields increase, but that’s what to watch out for (interest rate hikes, government unable to pay debts, vicious circle of decline in activity, government unable to pay debts and so on). Really, domestic manufacturing increases are the way to recovery, and large numbers of new, small manufacturing starts would require repeals of regulations and fees at every level of government.
Yeah, ignoring the fact that 10 year bonds are now up to 2.5 percent from about .5.
But go on, tell us how the inflation demon has been slain!