Jennifer Duffy is a left wing loon, but she is very good at what she does, examining statistical data on elections. Her report deserves careful attention and thought.
First, the shift in voting patterns in suburbs is real and has serious short and long term implications. Without the suburbs, conservatives can kiss any hope of political control goodbye. The liberals will reign at state and national levels and conservatives will be left to huddle in their cabins in the woods and curse the darkness.
Second, how is it that suburban district that once were reliably GOP are now voting for Democrats on an increasingly regular basis. I believe that, in part, this is a function of the overall success of the education system in producing liberals. Schools now preach a liberal message from pre school through graduate school while conservative views are not tolerated. Young adults can be expected to accept the liberal slant and will likely take longer to come to their senses once they are away from the education system. The more these folks cluster in suburbia, the less likely conservative candidates can will elections there.
Third, I suspect that this phenomenon is greater among females than among males. Women tend to think of themselves as beneficiaries of left wing social trends and probably are the segment of the electorate delivering Democrat majorities in suburban districts.
The politicians are very attuned to this trend which is why we see the Republican Party swerving away from it’s conservative base. Conservatives aren’t very good at handling this sort of dynamic. The Democrats are very good at telling a different story to each of their disparate groups, then governing as hard core lefties. In any case, the battleground is the suburbs and it’s a battle that we can’t afford to lose.
Second, how is it that suburban district that once were reliably GOP are now voting for Democrats on an increasingly regular basis.
Some people are dying. Other people are moving away from high taxes and places with high costs of living.
“'The Big Sort' focuses on one of the key factors behind these geographic trends: people are increasingly choosing to move into neighborhoods and communities of like-minded people who share their political views, creating what Bishop and Cushing call 'way-of-life segregation.'”