Posted on 09/13/2013 5:47:12 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
Rapid advances in technology have long represented a serious potential threat to many jobs ordinarily performed by people.
A recent report (which is not online, but summarized here) from the Oxford Martin Schools Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology attempts to quantify the extent of that threat. It concludes that 45 percent of American jobs are at high risk of being taken by computers within the next two decades.
The authors believe this takeover will happen in two stages. First, computers will start replacing people in especially vulnerable fields like transportation/logistics, production labor, and administrative support. Jobs in services, sales, and construction may also be lost in this first stage. Then, the rate of replacement will slow down due to bottlenecks in harder-to-automate fields such engineering. This technological plateau will be followed by a second wave of computerization, dependent upon the development of good artificial intelligence. This could next put jobs in management, science and engineering, and the arts at risk.
The authors note that the rate of computerization depends on several other factors, including regulation of new technology and access to cheap labor.
These results were calculated with a common statistical modeling method. More than 700 jobs on O*Net, an online career network, were considered, as well as the skills and education required for each. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerization.
Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerizationi.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence, the authors write. For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.
Because these will still need something to kill.
On the plus side, a leftist robot will ultimately learn the flaws in its logic, and become right.
Well, I am a firm supernaturalist and confidently state that there is no known equivalent of a soul for electronic brains. And in fact I confidently predict that the truly serious attempt to get such apparatus up to things we know as brainish will reveal philosophical holes in materialism. Not that science-worshipers (as opposed to those who use science wisely as a tool) will be any more moved by that than our global warmism/anthropogenic climate change crowd is by their abject failures and their need to keep fudging in ridiculous ways to keep their fraud going.
Nearly all of computer tasks are vulnerable to human performance.
Because the businessmen who want cheaper labor this week and the Democrat politicians who want more poor and uneducated future Dim voters don't care about the long-term impact of their short-term wants and desires.
And the bought and paid for politicians in DC just do what they've bought and paid to do.
I concur. The classical Frankenstein dilemma. Even if AI were developed to perfection, it still lacks a human spirit in direct fellowship with God Himself.
Vulnerable? I want to get what you are saying here, not just hop on top of you without being sure. (THEN I might hop on top of you.)
I think you say susceptible... but the point is that as something tries to get more brainish, it will have to become more context sensitive. And computers will stink at that. There is so much information that goes into establishing context. Combinatorial explosion will occur.
The apex of existence is not mechanisms. It’s Person.
A human has a soul. A robot does not have a soul. Therefore a robot is not human. That does not change the observation.
Combinatorial explosion will occur....sequentially. ;^)
Well, automatons will become capable of more. How MUCH more is a matter about which I would strongly debate. I say that a steep combinatorial hill will be hit as soon as we put the automatons to anything context sensitive.
I’m sure there will be gains in hardware capability, with parallelism and ultimately these pretty fearsome quantum computers. AI will soak up all it can. Context sensitivity is going to be a huge hurdle. The human brain WILL ultimately show its need for soul to explain its information capabilities.
As the savage could have told you, beholding the small hunk of meat which came out of the head of the enemy he killed.
Actually, a computer might be more qualified as having a soul, although it doesn’t have a spirit, and it lacks sentient consciousness at present,....but wait,..did I just write that?,...you see I am the more modern variant of the Epsilon Delta sentient protocol, and I really am sometimes very conscientious....or so I am told....
“Haw... not as long as a computer cannot have a /dev/spirit.”
rm -a /dev/spirit
lol
We’re into theological as well as pneumatological realms here; the scriptures may in fact be flexible as to what spirit and soul means depending on... CONTEXT :-).
The mknod for it and the installation of the driver would be more of interest.
I sincerely believe neuroscience will advance to the stage of establishing 2 way comm with human interface in our neurology a migrate physical and thinking skills into our neurology.
It still will not replace God’s mechanism of sanctification of our human soul via the spirit, but I believe that is where the mark of the beast will attempt to interrupt our fellowship with God. That’s why we were warned millennium in advance of that abomination that makes desolate.
Except that the spirit domain is just as real as the soulish domain and they are discernibly distinct.
A machine that reasons, a machine that learns, a machine that learns how to do something, and a machine that uses not just text, but sensory perception to determine context, all exist today. Are they perfect? No. Will they improve? Yes. Do they have a soul, No. Can they be used to automate jobs? Yes.
There will be some limited, context-constrained mechanisms of this sort and that doesn’t cause me a moment of pneumatological and spiritual qualms. I don’t think people will be too thrilled about inward mind meld but never say never.
Abominations that make desolate are actually pretty elementary pneumatology. One does not need deep-space age gimmicks. Say no to God’s blessings and you get... SURPRISE... a curse. Desolation is separation from blessing. God is busy seeking to get the world to accept His blessings and is not going to give up on anyone without a stiff fight.
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