Posted on 10/25/2013 8:00:10 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
It’s finally happened. David Frum, true conservative.
No no, kidding. This is, I think, something he pulled from his dream journal after waking up one night in a cold sweat, screaming. All it’ll take for a Cruz victory, he thinks, is an economic slowdown followed by an “event” on Wall Street that pushes America into recession followed by a months-long primary challenge by Elizabeth Warren to Hillary followed by an immigration brouhaha that unites conservatives behind Cruz followed by a Cruz/Christie fusion ticket eking out the narrowest of wins over Clinton in a very low-turnout election. Interestingly, the word “ObamaCare” appears just once in his post — in the context of liberals being grumpy that they didn’t get something more statist on health care from an Obama/Hillary cabinet. How likely is it that that’s the biggest impact O-Care has on Campaign 2016?
This part, at least, rings true to me:
In the painful aftermath of 2014, many Democrats were ready to hear that the party had been defeated because President Obama had been too cautious in his policies and too remote in his style. As Obamacare stumbled from implementation difficulty to implementation difficulty, they remembered that the program they really wanted was Medicare for all. They seethed at the way Obama had submitted to Republican demands that budget balancing take precedence over job creation. And whatever happened to the administration’s promises on climate change?
Democrats liked Hillary personally. But they could see that a Clinton nomination implied a course correction to the right from an administration they already condemned as too conservative. And so, even as the front-runner led the fundraising race through 2015, Iowa and New Hampshire were filling with volunteers canvassing for Elizabeth Warren and her message: “She’s in it to win it. I’m in it for you.”
Chris Cillizza of WaPo claimed today that the odds of Warren primarying Clinton in 2016 are near zero. I don’t know about that. Warren will be 67 in 2016 and Hillary will be a favorite to win the presidency if nominated. That means Warren won’t have another shot at running until 2024 — when she’ll be 75 years old. Ain’t happening, which means it’s now or never in 2016. She’s the closest thing in national politics that the left has to a rock star, so she’s the logical choice to fill the anti-Clinton dark horse role. (If not her, then Brian Schweitzer in Montana.) Doesn’t mean she’ll win — the Democratic establishment will be horrified at the thought of nominating someone who’s further left than Obama when they’re trying to hold the White House for a third straight term. But for all of the heavy breathing about a RINO/true-con civil war, Democrats could conceivably have a more contentious primary than the GOP does. Not likely, but conceivable. I expect to see outreach from Team Hillary to Warren sooner rather than later to make sure it doesn’t happen.
As for the GOP, Frum imagines Democrats losing Latino support in the midterms due to the recession, which will push the party into hyper-pander mode on amnesty and by extension force the issue front and center among Republicans. Advantage: …Cruz?
With the flaming wreck of Marco Rubio’s presidential hopes as a warning beacon, moderate favorite Governor Christie tried to triangulate the immigration issue. Ted Cruz determinedly took a position of all-out opposition. In an interview on Univision, he chatted in Spanish with host Jorge Ramos, then turned to English to deliver a stark message: “This is America. We obey the law. People who can’t deal with that don’t belong here.”…
Ted Cruz, however, could offer the vice presidency to Chris Christie—and the Democrats’ post-2014 leftward veer frightened Republican donors enough that they pressed Christie to accept. Unlike Romney in 2012, Cruz’s conservative allegiance could not be questioned, freeing him to write the vaguest platform and conduct the most issue-free campaign of any Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Cruz delivered half his convention speech in Spanish and used the other half to rededicate the party to “the compassion of conservatism,” a subtle variant of an old phrase that delighted convention delegates.
I’m not sure why he thinks speaking Spanish will be some sort of key asset for Cruz come 2016. It’d be a fine pander as a cheap way to soften a hardline position against amnesty, but Cruz doesn’t speak the language well. (He once declined to debate David Dewhurst in Spanish ahead of the Texas Senate primary because, he said, he doesn’t speak Spanish so much as “Spanglish.”) I’m also not sure why he thinks immigration reform will still be on the table come 2016. The GOP leadership is desperate to pass something to build goodwill with Latinos, so much so that they’re murmuring about it even now despite its potential to tear the party apart after the tumult of the shutdown battle. They might be willing to hold off before the midterms knowing that midterm turnout is much lower than in presidential years, which means they have less to fear from the Latino vote. Ain’t no way they’re going to let it slide until 2016, though. If Ted Cruz ends up campaigning against immigration, it’ll be to repeal some sort of weak-ass comprehensive plan that’s already become law and which, as expected, is failing to secure the border as promised. But that just brings me back to the ObamaCare point above: How likely is it that Cruz, whose bark on amnesty has so far been worse than his bite, would go all-in on immigration when he could brand himself the anti-ObamaCare candidate in the primary instead? He’s already built a brand on that from the “defund” effort and his epic quasi-filibuster. Cruz becomes a serious contender, I think, if/when O-Care crumbles, not amnesty.
But never mind all that. If, against all expectations, Hillary’s as vulnerable as Frum imagines in 2016, won’t GOP voters be more inclined to give weight to “electability” in the primary rather than ideological purity? Cruz is the sort of candidate, I’d imagine, whom undecideds would be more inclined to nominate if either (a) Hillary seemed unbeatable, in which case the establishment would conclude it has less to lose by nominating a tea partier or (b) the Democrat was a no-name like Martin O’Malley who seemed very beatable, in which case all the “somewhat conservative” voters who would prefer a right-wing nominee but fret that he’d be a sitting duck in the general might be more willing to take a chance. Even a weakened Hillary will be formidable, so the “somewhat conservatives” may reluctantly conclude they’ve got no choice but to go with Mr. Blue State, Chris Christie, to maximize their odds. In fact, if Frum is right about immigration taking center stage, that would arguably make things even easier for Christie since he’d end up with an even bigger avalanche of fundraising dollars from pro-amnesty establishment Republicans than he’s already expecting. That would (probably) stop Cruz, and then Christie would be free to form the Christie/Rubio ticket we all know is coming. How excited are you?
Allah Pundit is seldom right in any of his writings from a leftist viewpoint.
Chris Christi, IMO, would do better primarying Clinton than trying to run as a Pub. He’s pathetic.
RE: I firmly believe that I will not live to see another Republican win the Presidency regardless of whether it is Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Peter King, Jeb Bush or any one of fifty others.
Care to explain to us why you are so pessimistic?
RE: Just wait till the media explodes with birtherism over Cruz
Won’t work. If they let Obama get away with it, they cannot use that negligence against Ted Cruz ( who has a better case than Obama ).
Fortunately they are up to the challenge...
You must live on a different planet with a different media than the one we do.
They will blast Cruz mercilessly, and rather than defend obama, they will simply do what they have done since July 2008, disappear the facts, ignore the evidence and fail to report anything that calls The One to question, any reports not in the MSM will be met with hysterical shrieks of RACISM! and charges of high treason.
Frum? FRUM???
I thought he’d slithered into his burrow in shame.
Uh. No thanks.
She's a genuine radical marxist leftist. The left can sniff out a real leftist just as well as we can sniff out a real conservative, maybe better. They wanted Howard Dean over Kerry, Obama over Hillary and now apparently the squaw over Hillary. It makes sense to me. Remember, experience means nothing to them, achievement means nothing, all that matters is strict adherence to leftist, marxist doctrine.
Good.
Ted Cruz would be so extrraordinarliy good for this nation and would work with the people of this country to set her back on her constitutional, and morally principled course. And that is precisely why those others fear him...they do not want that.
Your BS isn't welcome here anymore.
A woman who allows her ambassador and other good men to die without the benefit of military protection will do the same for her country.
It’s not b.s. - I am simply pointing out facts. You don’t own FR, and your attempt to intimidate me is clumsy and stupid - you don’t own FR, so who are you to tell me what is or isn’t welcome. Too bad if you don’t like the taste of a reality sandwich. You’ll like it a lot less when the entire news media goes birther 24/7 on Cruz if he decides to run.
I dont think...just my hunch...that Palin will be on the ticket. She might run for the Senate or stay as she is now...a fighter for us.
Should Cruz get the nom Id bet his VP pick will be someone no one is expecting. Im almost 100% certain Cruz has the nom if he wants it.
His real enemies are the DC elites, especially in the Senate and they will not give up trying to destroy him.
“You don’t own FR,”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3060736/posts
The guy who does disagrees with you too, chump. Your bull will be shouted down if you keep posting it.
Huh!!! Zero is the POTUS......That ship has sailed!!!
No, it hasn’t. Moral, ethical and legal issues don’t disappear because someone gets away with violating them.
If you believed you were right, you wouldn’t use abusive language or
attempts at bullying intimidation to suppress dissent.
I will say it again: Too bad if you don’t like the taste of a reality sandwich. You’ll like it a lot less when the entire news media goes birther 24/7 on Cruz if he decides to run.
Get back to me at primary time, when you’re complaining about how the media is running with only this story.
“....His real enemies are the DC elites, especially in the Senate and they will not give up trying to destroy him.”
Cruz may actually be in a fantastic position heading into 2016. Even the low info voter has enough sense to know establishment DC is broken. All Cruz has to do is stand up and point out to everyone that he is not only hated by Dems, but by many republicans as well: cue roar of the crowd.
Many of us are tired of crap from your ilk, it’s been debunked, sorry if you missed it pal. Cruz is perfectly eligible and there’s not a damn thing you or the DNC can do about it. I’m not debating you, the issue is closed, you lose.
You people have gone from braying that Cruz isn’t eligible to braying the THE MEDIA will saaaaaaaaay he isn’t it, OOOOOOH I’M SO SCARED!!!!. A cheap tactic. Consider yourself warned, once the race gets started you may be in danger of banning for continuing to spout that crap. Know this, you WILL be challenged every single time you spew nonsense, your trolling is not welcome.
Her executive experience and his academic credentials are complementary, as are his Establishment speaking skills and her common-person patois.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.