Posted on 11/20/2013 8:36:34 AM PST by JerseyanExile
Rather than doubling down on the “just get to 270″ strategy that’s been utilized by the GOP since 2000, the Republican Party must expand the map if it ever wishes to win another presidential election. Instead of just hoping that Virginia will magically turn red again, the GOP needs to focus on other traditionally Democratic states that have nonetheless moved rightward since 2000.
Using the year 2000 as a baseline, since it was the most recent closely contested race with near-even get-out-the-vote operations between the parties, I wanted to see how the close and swing states (anything decided by a margin of fewer than 10 points) have drifted since then. I started with just the raw margins of these states in 2000, scaled on their +R margin of victory.
The next map takes the contested states shown above (i.e., those that are not solid red or solid blue) and then scales them based on their relationship to the overall popular vote. A redder/pinker state gave Bush a larger margin than he received nationally, while a bluer state gave Gore a larger margin than he received nationally (purple states roughly mirrored the national popular vote). As the map shows, the middle third of the nation was an electoral hot zone, the West Coast wasn’t yet monolithically blue (nor was the Northeast), and a handful of southern states were surprisingly competitive.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
I don’t think there has been a bill introduced yet but there is considerable support for it among conservatives. Our “republican” governor is a real problem.
Going with such a system would mean that it wouldn’t matter if they cheat in Detroit because they wouldn’t control the state with it.
The secretary of state has her boot on the neck of Detroit right now and I think its one of the reasons they elected their first white mayor in some 40 years. He’s a democrat but that doesn’t give them the right to cheat him out of it and they did try. They denied him ballot access so he ran and won the primary as a write in candidate. Detroit election officials stripped him of some 40% of his votes and the state made them give them back. He won the general election by almost 10%.
“If Virginia is lost then we need to make Colorado or Ohio definitely red again.”
Virginia is not lost. It’s certainly a swing state, but its not lost.
The GOP leadership is the problem. They were using year 2000 ‘strategery’ in 2012 ... that’s stupid, static thinking. They have to stop listening to experts like Rove and bring in someone with sound strategy. From there, take calculated risks.
Sticking to that stupid “abandon everything but these states” tactic is only going to cause the GOP to lose more going forward. It’s a dumb, shortsighted prevent defense. Prevent defenses are awful against a dynamic opponent.
They need to start campaigning hard in Ohio and Colorado as you mentioned. I think we can win over voters in New Mexico and Nevada. Despite “The Punk” winning in VA, I think you’re going to see Virginia back in the mix in 2016. They need to expand to Wisconsin and Michigan too. Those states are ripe for the picking in 2016 (provided the top of the GOP ticket is Tons o’ Fun).
Sticking to three precarious paths to 270 is silly though. Rove lucked out in 2000. 2004 was a big win for the GOP/Rove ... seriously, they won the Presidency and almost won every close Senate race that year. He’s been abysmal ever since.
“Also need to work on Florida. Not sure what went wrong there last time.”
Lousy ground game / get out the vote effort from what I read.
“(provided the top of the GOP ticket is Tons o’ Fun).”
I meant, NOT Tons o’ Fun!!! :-) ... No, I am not a fan of the Governor from New Jersey :-)!
Republicans control Michigan and Wisconsin at the state level - didn’t prevent the states for voting Democrat in 2012.
Plus, they didn't seem to have a problem narrowly taking the single electoral vote from the Omaha district of Nebraska in 2008. It is an idea which is long overdue.
Ideally, it should be done nationwide. Until then, it should be done in every purple state which can reasonably implement it.
We've already seen what happens when we try alternatives like voter ID to ensure the integrity of elections. This is far simpler and less costly. The Jackass party can take solace in the fact that their cheating can still swing the two statewide electoral votes.
Cut fraud and don’t pick a RINO
It is my opinion that the local Republican Party agenda should focus on changing party affiliation NOW, while so many are mad about Obamacare and the lying, corrupt Democrat administration. Once we get them re-registered, maybe they will be likely to vote R in coming elections.
We can focus on candidates next Spring and Summer, before the 2014 elections.
And what happens when the Democrats try to pull the reverse in other states like West Virginia or Kentucky that tend to vote Republican in presidential elections but have a strong Democrat presence at the state level of government? Are you that confident that, say, Arkansas, won’t ever have Democrats retake control of the legislature?
Congressional-district state electoral systems are a good idea in my opinion, but the effects would hardly be one-sided.
The easy answer to your question is that I'm willing to cede a few electoral votes here and there in states like this in return for the ability to win a lot more in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
A national campaign strategy which concentrates on winning widely rather than stacking votes selectively in a few densely populated urban areas is going to produce better candidates, even when Democrats win.
I'll take a flawed mainstream Democrat like Bill Clinton any day over a pure Marxist ideologue like BO.
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