I meant “good” as in “having a chance to win.” The Green Papers lists her as not having raised *any* money as of Sepember 30. She could be as qualified to serve in Congress as Peter Roskam was when he ran a few years ago, and it wouldn’t matter if she doesn’t raise a crapload of money to pay for advertising in that very expensive media market. Dan Lipinski will be extremely tough to beat in that district, and it will take more than a good personality and a strong platform to do so—she needs lots of money.
But you’re correct that I spoke without first seeing Diane Harris’s website (as I said initially, I haven’t researched all the candidates). I have to be honest: Harris, a black Baptist from Will County, sounds like a terrific candidate for a state rep or state senate seat from Will County, but will be at a big disadvantage against Lipinski running in Polish and other ethnic Catholic neighborhoods in South Chicago (which have been represented in Congress by him or his father for over 30 years). The new IL-03 is one of those districts that BillyBoy always mentions in which Republicans can do well in the suburbs but then get swamped in the Chicago precincts. Against Lipinski, I would run a Polish guy or gal from South Chicago with appeal to suburban voters, and even then Lipinski would have the advantage.
CD 3 would be interesting if it was open and the rats nominated a moonbat and the Republican was well-funded.
But beating Lipinksi Jr this year, I’m gonna go 1%. Though it voted slightly more GOP for President than any the gerrymandered seats we lost, it’s got Madiganinstani precincts.
The 11th, I just don’t see happening. Foster is easily the strongest rat of these. I think Balkema is justifying his run because he works in Joilet, for Caterpillar inc, so it’s not as if he’s completely without tie to the district.
The others I can see victory in. The 12th, even money at least.
Schneider was a lesser tier choice, I think he literally won the rat primary against fellow nobodies because he had the least weird name. And he only won in November cause of coattails. You may be right to be rosy on Dold, but I don’t know, my gut says under 50.
Good points on Schilling, I believe McCain % shrank 4 points with the remap. Schilling still would have won in 2010 with a 4 point swing against (though it would have been thanks to a Green).