Most everyone will agree that it is rational to rule that hypothesis out.
Sorry, someone had to post it....
Posted on 03/13/2014 12:06:03 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Obviously, nobody can be sure what happened to Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. That does not mean, however, that some explanations are more likely to be true than others.
For example, it is exceedingly unlikely that the flight was “abducted” by a UFO.
Most everyone will agree that it is rational to rule that hypothesis out.
Criminologists do not just pluck a subjectively preferred hypothesis out of thin air and then ramble about it.
Rather, criminologists apply probabilistic/statistical reasoning to the analysis of empirical data.
A few sentences should suffice to give a sense of why, at present, the hypothesis that MH370 was stolen fits the available evidence the best.
Clearly, I am not going to argue that the theft hypothesis is certainly true, nor am I going to argue that it is the only hypothesis worth considering.
I am simply going to offer good, empirically based reasons for holding that at present it offers the best explanation of what are taken to be facts.
It is a criminological fact that hijackings happen far more often than the mid-air, instantaneous destruction of aircraft by either natural phenomena or onboard systems failure.
With regard to non-instantaneous destruction of aircraft (which almost certainly would involve a crash), there is at present no evidence of a crash, although of course that could change.
There is evidence that the plane veered off course before contact was lost.
That available evidence is obviously just as consistent with a hijacking as it is with a non-instantaneous crash (and note that if the plane veered off course, it is overwhelmingly likely that if the plane has been destroyed, it did not happen instantaneously).
But, once again, hijackings occur far more often than plane crashes (taking into account that some crashes are produced by hijackings).
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
If someone were smart enough to hijack the plane and land it safely at an unknown location for the purpose of demanding a ransom, it seems to me they would be smart enough to have the passengers hidden away at one or more locations by now. That being the case, shouldn’t there have been a ransom demand by now?
They might have plans for the plane they hijacked...
re: 4 8 15 16 23 42
We just need to find the island.
Doesn’t explain the course change.
You’re confusing the transponders used for radar tracking with data transmission sent from the engines to satellites for Rolls Royce. The latter are not tracked by air traffic control.
If the plane did not disintegrate, but was hijacked, they may have turned of the radar transponders but would not have knowledge of disabling the engine data telemetry.
That was my suspicion early on, too. But I didn’t know about the U-turn back then. Still could have been shot down. I was thinking China or even Malaysia. May explain why the Malays are acting kind of squirrely. Good question is who turned off the transponder back when it was over the Gulf of Thailand?
On 9/11, the terrorists turned off the transponders on three of the four hijacked aircraft. With its transponder off, it is possible, though more difficult, to track an aircraft by its primary radar returns. But unlike transponder data, primary radar returns do not show the aircraft’s identity and altitude. Controllers at centers rely so heavily on transponder signals that they usually do not display primary radar returns on their radar scopes. But they can change the configuration of their scopes so they can see primary radar returns. They did this on 9/11 when the transponder signals for three of the aircraft disappeared.94
http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report_Ch1.htm
Its appears as though the latest news about the engines sending data back for 4 hours after the last known position seems to be a stong discussion of someone stealing the plane and taking it somewhere for either cargo like diamonds, gold, or something much wanted. Or the plane itself for a terroristic purpose such as mimicking another 777 flying to Israel with a nuclear device.
But then again this news release about engine data may be an attempt to flush them out, because withing or in less than an hour Boeing and Rolls Royce would have chimed in and said, “Look for engine telemetry”
They knew about this and have been sitting on it.
My educated guess is the passengers were gassed, they are dead, the plane is being prepped to become a modern day version of a WW2 flying bomb.
I would not be surprised if ALL same type of aircraft are grounded the next week in that part of the country, or will have increased security on them, and its my gut feeling all eyes should be upon Iran and Israel.
Sine we haven't found it, we have no idea if there was a course change.
The course change is just another unsubstantiated rumor.
A plan that includes the passengers.
I’m replying to those that think this might have been a sudden depressurization event that killed everyone on board like the Payne Stewart flight a few years ago. That scenario doesn’t account for who turned off the transponders. I understand the bit about the later data transmission taking place.
On 9/11 were any of the aircraft a 777 ?
How do we know there hasn’t been a ransom demand?
Disregard my earlier comment. Was thinking that there was an assumption that the radar transponders and engine data transmitters were being considered as the same.
9/11 Military Notification and Response.
Because the hijackers had turned off the plane’s transponder, NEADS personnel spent the next minutes searching their radar scopes for the primary radar return.
http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report_Ch1.htm
At NEADS, the report of the hijacking was relayed immediately to Battle Commander Colonel Robert Marr. After ordering the Otis fighters to battle stations, Colonel Marr phoned Major General Larry Arnold, commanding general of the First Air Force and NORAD’s Continental Region. Marr sought authorization to scramble the Otis fighters. General Arnold later recalled instructing Marr to “go ahead and scramble them, and we’ll get authorities later.” General Arnold then called NORAD headquarters to report.118
F-15 fighters were scrambled at 8:46 from Otis Air Force Base. But NEADS did not know where to send the alert fighter aircraft, and the officer directing the fighters pressed for more information: “I don’t know where I’m scrambling these guys to. I need a direction, a destination.” Because the hijackers had turned off the plane’s transponder, NEADS personnel spent the next minutes searching their radar scopes for the primary radar return. American 11 struck the North Tower at 8:46. Shortly after 8:50, while NEADS personnel were still trying to locate the flight, word reached them that a plane had hit the World Trade Center.119
Radar data show the Otis fighters were airborne at 8:53. Lacking a target, they were vectored toward military-controlled airspace off the Long Island coast. To avoid New York area air traffic and uncertain about what to do, the fighters were brought down to military airspace to “hold as needed. “From 9:09 to 9:13, the Otis fighters stayed in this holding pattern.120
Most everyone will agree that it is rational to rule that hypothesis out.
Sorry, someone had to post it....
Let’s see...Chinese compete w/ Boeing or...steal a plane, re-engineer it, make planes themselves via state money/funded.
Kill all passengers as human life means nothing in China...look at all those slaughtered for Three Gorges Dam...
China works with Iran, so the pilots (Muzlums) will be rewarded.
I believe there were two 757s and two 767s on 9/11/01.
No 777s.
American Airlines Flight 77
FAA Awareness. American 77 began deviating from its flight plan at 8:54, with a slight turn toward the south. Two minutes later, it disappeared completely from radar at Indianapolis Center, which was controlling the flight.138
The controller tracking American 77 told us he noticed the aircraft turning to the southwest, and then saw the data disappear. The controller looked for primary radar returns. He searched along the plane’s projected flight path and the airspace to the southwest where it had started to turn. No primary targets appeared. He tried the radios, first calling the aircraft directly, then the air-line. Again there was nothing. At this point, the Indianapolis controller had no knowledge of the situation in New York. He did not know that other aircraft had been hijacked. He believed American 77 had experienced serious electrical or mechanical failure, or both, and was gone.139
Shortly after 9:00, Indianapolis Center started notifying other agencies that American 77 was missing and had possibly crashed. At 9:08, Indianapolis Center asked Air Force Search and Rescue at Langley Air Force Base to look for a downed aircraft. The center also contacted the West Virginia State Police and asked whether any reports of a downed aircraft had been received. At 9:09, it reported the loss of contact to the FAA regional center, which passed this information to FAA headquarters at 9:24.140
By 9:20, Indianapolis Center learned that there were other hijacked aircraft, and began to doubt its initial assumption that American 77 had crashed. A discussion of this concern between the manager at Indianapolis and the Command Center in Herndon prompted it to notify some FAA field facilities that American 77 was lost. By 9:21, the Command Center, some FAA field facilities, and American Airlines had started to search for American 77.They feared it had been hijacked. At 9:25, the Command Center advised FAA headquarters of the situation.141
The failure to find a primary radar return for American 77 led us to investigate this issue further. Radar reconstructions performed after 9/11 reveal that FAA radar equipment tracked the flight from the moment its transponder was turned off at 8:56. But for 8 minutes and 13 seconds, between 8:56 and 9:05, this primary radar information on American 77 was not displayed to controllers at Indianapolis Center.142 The reasons are technical, arising from the way the software processed radar information, as well as from poor primary radar coverage where American 77 was flying.
According to the radar reconstruction, American 77 reemerged as a primary target on Indianapolis Center radar scopes at 9:05, east of its last known posi-tion. The target remained in Indianapolis Center’s airspace for another six minutes, then crossed into the western portion of Washington Center’s airspace at 9:10.As Indianapolis Center continued searching for the aircraft, two managers and the controller responsible for American 77 looked to the west and southwest along the flight’s projected path, not east-where the aircraft was now heading. Managers did not instruct other controllers at Indianapolis Center to turn on their primary radar coverage to join in the search for American 77.143
In sum, Indianapolis Center never saw Flight 77 turn around. By the time it reappeared in primary radar coverage, controllers had either stopped looking for the aircraft because they thought it had crashed or were looking toward the west. Although the Command Center learned Flight 77 was missing, neither it nor FAA headquarters issued an all points bulletin to surrounding centers to search for primary radar targets. American 77 traveled undetected for 36 minutes on a course heading due east for Washington, D.C.144
http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report_Ch1.htm
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