I’ll point out the obvious here....the whole gimmick of Colbert is his “I’m-an-idiot-Republican” act. That’s what people tune into and watch for thrills. So, CBS puts out the message last week....he won’t be doing his ‘Republican’ act.
What do you think happens when folks tune in on his arrival? Some dull guy with limited interview skills, and virtually no humor without his Republican act. He loses a quarter of his audience by the sixth week, and CBS admits problems by the sixth month. It’s a five year contract and I doubt if they realize the limited capability of this guy without his signature acting piece.
I think you’ve pretty much nailed it. Colbert is a one trick shtick. Unless he’s been holding back some major talent (which I somehow doubt), he’s not likely to fare all that well in the late night wars.
Then again, Craig Kilborn lasted almost five years on the air, and I remain mystified about that one...