Why the 2014 Senate Races Matter So Much

Real Clear Politics ^ | January 23, 2014 | Sean Trende

[centurion316]

Yesterday I laid out some scenarios for the 2014 Senate races. At President Obama's current job approval rating, Democrats would likely suffer substantial losses in the upper chamber. On the other hand, if the president were to improve his standing, and if Republican candidates implode in some races, the GOP could break even or even lose a seat or two.

But aside from bragging rights, 2014 is a sideshow for the following two years. Obama is a lame duck, and the GOP already has blocking power with the House. A Republican majority in the Senate could provide added leverage by forcing Obama to use his veto, and it could force vulnerable Democrats to cast tough votes. But where it really matters -- where it could make a huge difference -- is in the next round of Senate elections.

Given the playing field that year, Republican losses are at the very least probable in 2016. In fact, they are likely. So if the GOP blows it this year, and if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2016, he or she could have a sizable -- perhaps even filibuster-proof -- majority. Moreover, if the GOP doesn’t win a decent-size majority this year, it stands a good chance of losing it in 2016 if Democrats have a good year.

[centurion316]

I have read opinions that question the need for Republicans to gain control of the Senate this year given that Obama will still be with us for another two years and seems determined to rule by decree. I think that this article from January of this year makes a good case for taking a longer view.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

That's what I keep insisting. Obama has no need for Congress by his own words and actions. What does it matter who has the majority. He is going to do what he wants regardless of what the Republicans have to say.

Impeachment? Ha! Based on Obama's current list of crimes, proceedings should have been and would have been started already but no one in the House has the gonads to try. Even with a Senate majority, conviction is a pipe dream.

[PapaNew]

Obama is a lame duck

With greater and greater unconstitutional, unelected, and unaccountable "Administrative State" powers, Obama's a pretty active "lame duck."

[Vigilanteman]

Congress will restrain ObaMao about as much as Parliament restrained Henry VIII.

[grumpygresh]

This IS THE most important election in our lifetime. This election matters so much!
Where have I heard that before?

[CARTOUCHE]

I was a bit perturbed by the outcomes of last nights primaries especially when it came to Kentucky. I’m not naive enough to think that Bevin (one of my donation targets this cycle) would overcome the power and money of a McConnell.

I was more perturbed by the comments of some of our FReepers who are ready to throw in the towel, who are so short-sighted as to say they would be sending money to a Democrat candidate to help defeat McConnell or even voting for same. Come on people, we’re not even close to the shooting war.

We need to keep the Dems from being able to secure another seat on the USSC. Yes, even that Supreme Court. Making it worse wont solve the problem but aiming for more people of similar or like minds will keep a 5/4 court from becoming a 4/5 court. I appreciate our zeal but I don’t have an appreciation for ignorance or malcontent blatherisms that were spewing forth here last night.

We must take a longer view. Out political field doesn’t get changed or improved in 60 minute episodes.

[cotton1706]

Yeah, they want to kill the Tea Party and any challenges this year so they won’t have to defend all the worthless moderates in 2016:

Lee (UT) - 2016 - 100% (Average) - 100% (Heritage) - 100% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)

Paul (KY) - 2016 - 97% (Average) - 96% (Heritage) - 97% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)

Rubio (FL) - 2016 - 92% (Average) - 87% (Heritage) - 91% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)

Crapo (ID) - 2016 - 89% (Average) - 79% (Heritage) - 92% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)

Coburn (OK) - 2016 - 88% (Average) - 81% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 76% (FreedomWorks)

Johnson (WI) - 2016 - 87% (Average) - 89% (Heritage) - 87% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 77% (FreedomWorks)

Grassley (IA) - 2016 - 86% (Average) - 82% (Heritage) - 86% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 86% (FreedomWorks)

Toomey (PA) - 2016 - 85% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)

Vitter (LA) - 2016 - 81% (Average) - 75% (Heritage) - 78% (CFG) - 79% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)

Shelby (AL) - 2016 - 76% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 82% (CFG) - 76% (ACU) - 68% (FreedomWorks)

Coats (IN) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 70% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 83% (ACU) - 65% (FreedomWorks)

Thune (SD) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 65% (Heritage) - 80% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)

Moran (KS) - 2016 - 72% (Average) - 66% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)

Burr (NC) - 2016 - 70% (Average) - 62% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 84% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)

Boozman (AR) - 2016 - 69% (Average) - 71% (Heritage) - 70% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 55% (FreedomWorks)

Ayotte (NH) - 2016 - 67% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 79% (CFG) - 68% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)

Portman (OH) - 2016 - 64% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 64% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)

Blunt (MO) - 2016 - 59% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 71% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)

Kirk (IL) - 2016 - 55% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 74% (CFG) - 44% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)

Isakson (GA) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 54% (Heritage) - 59% (CFG) - 54% (ACU) - 50% (FreedomWorks)

McCain (AZ) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 43% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 52% (ACU) - 48% (FreedomWorks)

Hoeven (ND) - 2016 - 51% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 58% (CFG) - 60% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)

Murkowski (AK) - 2016 - 41% (Average) - 36% (Heritage) - 52% (CFG) - 38% (ACU) - 36% (FreedomWorks)

[napscoordinator]

I want McConnell to win the election especially if we get the Senate. However, there HAS to be a way to vote him out of Senate Majority Leader or even Minority Leader if that is what happens.

[Fledermaus]

At this point, especially with McConnell as leader, I think it would be a waste if the GOPe gets the Senate in 2014. I can envision two years of “we have to work to get things done for the American people” and bending over backwards to avoid an Obama veto on anything at any cost.

[cuban leaf]

Come on people, we’re not even close to the shooting war.

---

I disagree. I do not believe this country will survive the Obama presidency. I bought my small farm in central KY two weeks before the 2008 election, moved there in summer of 2011 from my home of 45 years, Seattle (where I had a good six figure income) and the history that unfolds before my eyes convinces me more than ever that it was the correct move.

We are living in a version of Dr. Zivago, without the love story. Our politicians are not the problem. The electorate is the problem.

[Clump]

The only good a GOP majority would do is with regard to stalling judicial appointments. If there’s a SCOTUS vacancy they could keep Barry from filling it.

[Cowboy Bob]

I would rather have a RINO elected to office than Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader.

RINOs tend to be followers. With the Republicans in charge of the Senate, people like Cruz would exert their leadership skills and the RINOs would follow obediently.

This is what happened during the Reagan administration. Squishy RINOs grew some balls and rallied around Reagan. The RINOs would support Cruz or any other Republican who shows leadership.

[CARTOUCHE]

Yes, there could be a way to beat him as Majority Leader but it would take an underground campaign of sorts in the Senate with lots of danger for those with cherry committee assignments in the balance. If the object of each Senator’s term wasn’t self-aggrandizement but more purely to do the right thing, a change of senate leadership would be easily accomplished and committee assignments wouldn’t matter a hill of beans.

In a just world, there’d be a senate rule allowing only a 2 year term for Majority Leader.

[ken5050]

Screw the conventional wisdom...First of all, the GOP is not as at risk in 2016 as the article states...there are 10 Dem seats, and 24 GOP seats up...I think the GOP has a good chance of picking up 1-2 Dem seats, and there are about 5 GOP seats that could be deemed in play..and after 2 more years of Obamacare, and a crappy economy...the GOP will do OK...

[Parmenio]

last night, I listened to Reagan’s 1964 “A Time for Choosing” speech in its entirety. There wasn’t a defeatist sentence or word in it. Sounds like you’ve already surrendered.

[Jacquerie]

I don’t have an appreciation for ignorance or malcontent blatherisms that were spewing forth here last night.

I'm not sure what post you refer to, but I'll take your word for it.

My question to you: If our freedom depends on the outcome of elections, do we still live in a constitutional republic?

[CARTOUCHE]

If the Precedent postpones an election then there will be a Constitutional crisis. The military could respond and step in to restore the Nation to it’s pre-Obama stability. Even then I doubt there would be much shooting and bomb-throwing unless it was to celebrate throwing-off the yoke of a 1/2 Black-Nationalist wannabee.

The left only knows how to make bombs and most generally abhors guns and ammo.

[OldRanchHand]

This country survived a Civil War, the 60s, the Carter presidency...you get the idea. We’ll survive the final two years of the Obama administration without breaking a sweat. Give the American people a little more credit.

[napscoordinator]

In a just world, there’d be a senate rule allowing only a 2 year term for Majority Leader.

You are so right. I would love to get rid of Boehner, McConnell, Pelosi and Reid. And replace them with two new Republicans and two new Democrats. It is ridiculous how long they stay in those positions. I mean except for Boehner, each one is in their 70’s....Enough!

[austinaero]

“At this point, especially with McConnell as leader, I think it would be a waste if the GOPe gets the Senate in 2014. I can envision two years of “we have to work to get things done for the American people” and bending over backwards to avoid an Obama veto on anything at any cost.”

Your comment reminds me to ask this “Where’s McCain?” John has been very quiet lately.