Posted on 06/26/2014 2:25:31 PM PDT by ckilmer
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas is out with an awesome and slightly hilarious note in which he argues Tesla is now, maybe, the most important car company in the world.
"Not even two years after the delivery of the first Model S, Tesla Motors has transformed from fledgling start-up to arguably the most important car company in the world. We are not joking."
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
IOW, its a great toy for the wealthy....and that’s about it. The notion of ‘free charging’ is meaningless.
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All true. Its currently a toy for the wealthy.
But if you knew your history, you’d know that cars back in the 1890’s were originally toys for the wealthy.
(And not just cars. A whole host of products started out as toys for the wealthy including tv’s computers and cell phones, car phones, air conditioning and what have you.)
Its the promise of Tesla and the knowledge of what has happened historically to products that have gone from toys for the rich and then moved on into mass production which drove prices down to where they became available for the middle and lower classes. That promise is what has people jazzed.
Electric cars competing against internal combustion cars will drive the price of oil and electricity down. Which will create an explosion of wealth in the USA and kill the economies of the Gulf Arabs. Which will defund the madrasses that funnels jihadists to AL Qaeda.
I’m not sure how electric cars drive the price of electricity down. I know most charging will be done in overnight slack periods of demand, but they should still increase incremental usage.
And with coal powered plants going off-line at a fast clip, I think there’s trouble ahead for juice availability.
You say it’s a good thing all the other car companies are going ga-ga over Tesla. If they try to emulate them, and that’s their business model how much of that can we afford?
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If its cheaper better smarter more convenient cooler to buy an internal combustion engine car than it is to buy the alternative—then people are going to buy the internal combustion engine car.
That’s just the way it works.
Electric cars have to come down in price while keeping a high range before they’ll be eligible to compete in the mass markets of the world.
“Your time isn’t free. An hour and a half every time you want to go 200 miles? “
I am retired. I spend my spare time pulling weeds.
” It is a superior battery.”
But the electric motor is superior to the gas engine.
Teleporters.
I’m not sure how electric cars drive the price of electricity down. I know most charging will be done in overnight slack periods of demand, but they should still increase incremental usage.
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agree. however, the large increase in electricity consumption will force the USA and every other countries to up the amount of electricity that’s provided to the grid. imho this will enable the entrance of 4th generation nuclear reactors which will produce electricity for at most half the cost of the cheapest coal.
And with coal powered plants going off-line at a fast clip, I think there’s trouble ahead for juice availability.
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Yeah I too think there’s trouble ahead in this regard. However, the amount of natural gas being produced is huge and growing. The coal plants for now will be transitioned to natural gas. But there’s likely to be bottlenecks.
Hopefully that will speed the introduction of 4th generation nuclear power plants.
“So, how many cars that have a $100,000 price range AREN’T elegant with wonderful fit and finish?”
Ah come on! The only reason these cars are expensive is that they are not yet in the kind of volume production that brings down cost. You can buy BMW for a little more than half that today, and you can buy high-end Japanese cars for about the same bucks. Elton Musk has started something on a scale even Detroit can’t seem to match. Actually, when you think about it, an expensive electric car was the right way to go about implementing this technology. To the people here in the Bay Area who have Teslas, the price is irrelevant. But they are helping build a proving ground for the technology unlike the real “golf carts” like the Nissan Leaf. People who are looking for a car at the Leaf’s price, can’t afford it’s shortcomings. The Tesla owners most likely have a couple of IC engined luxos for trips where the Tesla doesn’t work. And battery technology will evolve. The only stupid thing we’ve done is try our best to get out of the nuclear power business where electric cars would start to really make sense.
That’s just the way it works.
That's the way it's supposed to work. Government subsidies screw that equation all up.
“Your time isn’t free. An hour and a half every time you want to go 200 miles? I can gas up in 5 minutes and go 400+ miles.”
Now, you’re right, but the folks here in the East Bay with Teslas, probably either work locally, in Oakland or San Francisco, or in the Silicon Valley. It’s 38 miles from my home to Santa Clara where I used to work (and that’s about as far as anyone would have to go in my scenario). So even if you go out for lunch and use your Tesla to go to the restaurant, you are probably not putting any more than 100 miles per day on your car, and you can charge it up at home over night. I don’t have the conversion figures handy, but I am betting that you can charge up your Tesla for less than $10.00 a day, and probably for a lot less than that. I just put $100.00 worth of gas in my new SUV. My wife drove it out to Manteca (about 50 miles each way) and back today, and I will bet you it will have less than half a tank when she gets home. That’s a buck a mile! I guess the thing that still get me is that electric cars today are like flying gliders, you know you are going to have plan your landing.
Oh I see...cars, computers, cell phones, and air conditioning were all heavily subsidized.
Oh...they weren’t?....Maybe thats an important distinction.
Well I guess cell phones and computers were shelve for a hundred years after first being tried....and then they really took off.
What...they weren’t.
Wow.....maybe Tesla really isn’t at all similar to any of those products.
Ok...did yku notice that I didn’t just claim a gas tank was better...I gave a half dozen reasons why.
Its fine if you think an electric motor is superior, but I can only wonder why, since you gave no examples.
This is not some idle strategem, mate. It is both proven and about to be published in detail. Fair enough?
If you are familiar with options, this will pose no problem for you...and, the strategem is executable in any size you like, from 5 lots or so up to hundreds, depending on short-term mkt volume.
I shall do this on the day before TSLA's next earnings are due to be reported. And the strategem is this: buy X vertical call spreads, with the striking price of the PURCHASED call "at the money" and the striking price of the SOLD call just 5, or perhaps 7.5, pts above the ATM strike. And simultaneously, buy X number of vertical put spreads with, again, the strike of the PURCHASED put being "at the money" (ATM) and the strike of the SOLD put being the same distance, 5 or 7.5 pts below.
Use, specifically, the NEARBY expiration. TSLA has options that expire each week, and they each of them expire on a Friday or Saturday. Therefore, use the CURRENT week options for the trade.
One will pay, typically, 4.60-4.70 as the sum of BOTH spreads (per lot that you decide to trade). The trade is to A) let TSLA after the earnings report move wherever it likes; if you look up the history of TSLA price moves after earnings, you'll see immediately that the price move is historically well more than 2-3 percent, and thus one side or the other of the trade will go to full value (5 pts in my example) and there will be a nice, tidy little profit of 30-40 cents less commission in pocket, come Friday when the options expire.
It is clearly to the trader's advantage to trade as many of these double verticals as his account will allow. Have an option pro advise you about the specific details of how to enter the trade...there will be no exiting of the trade; the market does that for you automatically.
Now, of course, if you don't think TSLA will move 5 (or 7.5) points after earnings are reported, you simply don't enter the trade. Historically, TSLA (and most mo-mo darling stocks) move FAR more than 2-3 per cent after earnings reports, because the mo-mo spec crowd demand continued reason to keep pumping, and bail like hell if the 'guidance' provided by the company is in ANY way disappointing.
Good trading to you, and FReegards!
nicely played
I do not now, and never have had the money to trade, invest in or otherwise deal with markets, stocks, etc-I work, I pay bills and live a simple life, so I’ll take your word for all that, and I hope your calculations are correct and you make the proverbial killing...
Oh I see...cars, computers, cell phones, and air conditioning were all heavily subsidized.
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Well, if you’re referring to the loan that Tesla took from the feds. Yeah, there’s that. However, they paid the loan back in full with interest.
The point of the article however, is not so much about Tesla themselves but rather what they have done to the world’s automakers.
Basically what Tesla has done is put a cattle prod to the behinds of every auto maker in the world.
There will now be a substantial worldwide effort to make electric/fuel cell/hybrid cars in every category.
The effect of this will be to slowly drain demand for oil world wide and thereby put downward pressure on the price of oil. This will happen over a decade or two but the result will be that the USA and much of the rest of the developed world will have an explosion of wealth because of low energy costs. Meanwhile the Gas station countries like the gulf states and russia will go broke. Oh yeah Al Qaeda will be defunded.
I’m referring to the $7, 500 tax credit from federal government, plus state incentives. When the subsidies stop, I’ll pay attention to how they changed the car world.
Any corporation that takes huge “loans” from government should get a stink eye from the public
“Until viable batteries are invented the electric car will be a sad, expensive joke.”
Until viable capacitors are developed to store the electricty all electric cars will be a joke. Also, remember, that if the damn car has to be plugged in for recharge, the electricity to do that is coming from either a fossil fueled or nuclear fueled electric power plant.
It takes more fossil fuel to generate the electricity to run these cars than it does to run an efficient internal combustion engine. Only saving grace in all this is that BO...Before Obama...the fossil fuel could be coal. And there is a lot of that available.
Obvious
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