Charts and maps of America’s Amazing Shale Oil Revolution;

aei-ideas ^ | July 15th, 2014 | Mark J. Perry |

[bigbob]

And this doesn’t include anything in the D-J.

We are a nation rich in energy, poor in leadership.

[sarasmom]

Thank you for posting!

At what point will these increased supplies start translating into lower consumer prices and / or USA energy independence?

[Elderberry]

My oldest Son took a long time deciding what he wanted to do once he got out of the Navy. From Vegas police to Federal Mar shall. By the time he got out Dec2012 he had decided he wanted to be a directional drilling operator. He said it might take him ten years or more. He got picked up at Weatherford as a tech tearing down oil tools. This Apr he made field engineer. He is now on a rig in Eagle Ford. He supported one in Balken. The rest have been in Tx.

[ckilmer]

I went to EIA here http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2

and looked up monthly oil production in thousands of barrels for the Permian basin. I don’t know what part of this is seasonality but one thing does stand out. There has been a steady rise this year in oil production which coincides with the rise in the number or rigs and horizontal wells
30 jul 2014
23 jun
21 may
13 april
11 mar
7 feb
6 jan 2014
1 dec
0 nov
1 oct 2013

[Elderberry]

Bakken

[ckilmer]

The rise in production in the D-J is pretty steep but its coming off a small base. If that keeps up for a year or two however, things will change. Same goes for Woodford Canna

[Born to Conserve]

Amazing! Higher oil prices support higher cost of production? Someone should call an economist.

[ckilmer]

Thank you for posting!

At what point will these increased supplies start translating into lower consumer prices and / or USA energy independence?
............
Hard to say. My WAG for now is not for several years.

Unlike natural gas which is priced locally. That is, natural gas is not as easily transportable as oil—so prices for natural gas tend to reflect supply and demand in the USA. Oil however, is a worldwide commodity because its easily transportable. That means that demand in China affect prices in the USA. Production disruptions in Iraq or Libya affect prices in the USA. Falling production in Mexico and Venezuela affect prices in the USA. Demand all over the world has been rising for oil. While production in the USA and Canada and Iraq have been rising—these are the exceptions. Most of the world’s oil fields are old. Their production is flat to down. Now Iraq’s internal difficulties mean that no one will invest new money into Iraq until that civil war subsides. That means that Iraq will not be raising production any time soon. That means that only The USA and Canada will be raising production for the next couple years. Set against rising world demand... I would not expect oil prices to fall for the next couple years.

For now, the US EIA Energy Information Agency expects oil production to rise by 1 million barrels @ day in each of 2014-2015 and then flatten out. However, it looks more and more likely that from 2016-2020 oil production will rise by at least 500,000 barrels@ day with the Permian Eagle Ford Baaken Gulf of Mexico and all others each kicking in 100,000 barrels @ year.

That puts oil independence at about 2019. There will be knock on effects like a strong dollar and balanced federal budgets.

After 2020 however, it looks more and more likely that oil prices will go into permanent secular decline abetted insignificantly by more oil worldwide oil fracking. But caused most significantly by worldwide change over to natural gas for transportation fuels. After 2025, if prices fall and convenience/driving distance continue to rise for electric cars then too electric cars will deliver the coup de grace permanently to high oil prices.

[ckilmer]

Judging by videos I’ve seen — steering drill bits as they snake underground looks like an interesting and lucrative job

[ckilmer]

Higher oil prices support higher cost of production?
...........
The numbers I posted myself from the EIA reflect higher Producton of oil — not higher costs of oil production.

Typically oil production prices decline as the companies derisk & industrialize an oil play.

[Star Traveler]

Hey ... where’s the Oklahoma map ... half the state is cut out ...

[billhilly]

I’m happy we are doing this in the USA, but why are we still paying $3-$4 per gallon at the pumps? I,m sure there is an answer to that.

[ROCKLOBSTER]

electric cars will deliver the coup de grace permanently to high oil prices.

So, you're saying coal-fired and nuclear power plants will make a big comeback?

[ROCKLOBSTER]

why are we still paying $3-$4 per gallon at the pumps?

Global prices on unleaded, determined by commodities speculators.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

And, in turn, the speculators are speculating about supply and demand — which is up to producers and consumers.

[billhilly]

Thanks.

[ckilmer]

electric cars will deliver the coup de grace permanently to high oil prices.

So, you’re saying coal-fired and nuclear power plants will make a big comeback?

.............
There’s currently a worldwide race on to make the first lftr thorium reactor. There’s about seven small companies in the game. Three are from the USA. Plus Bill Gates has a competing design. These reactors are safe, produce almost no nuclear waste, can be designed to use spent nuclear fuel. they’re cheap to make and maintain. They’re portable. They’ll create electricity for 1/4-1/10 the cost of coal power plants.

The first test models will come out in a couple years.

When they’re ready for prime time—they’ll make coal uneconomical. That may be as much as 15 years away however.

[ckilmer]

Hey ... where’s the Oklahoma map ... half the state is cut out ...
.............
Good question. Beats me.