[PJ-Comix]

I don't get the premise of this article. 20,000 cases is a drop in the bucket compared to the total population. For example it is less than a tenth of a percent of the population of Lagos alone. Does the virus have a meter in it that suddenly forces it to stop infecting people at the 20,000 mark? What happens at 20,000 cases that WHO thinks will make it possible to bring it under control?

[PJ-Comix]

FYI

[DBrow]

Maybe that’s the point where WHO and UN force the airlines to stop going there?

[vetvetdoug]

The economic cost of treating and burying the affected will be enough to bankrupt a society. I think the WHO is way off base because as the medical facilities get overwhelmed, the numbers are going to escalate due to those that cannot get treatment, supportive care, or buried properly.

[Carthego delenda est]

Oh that’s an easy question: Obama laid down a red line.

[null and void]

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[DouglasKC]

And if they can’t control it now with much less cases what makes them believe they can control it at 20,000 cases?

[Qiviut]

The premise of the article appears to be if it stays in Africa ... what if it gets out of Africa, like to India?

********************************************

Ebola scare: 116 people arrive [in Delhi, India] from worst-affected Liberia
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3197788/posts

[Abathar]

Notice the comma on the end of that number? I think they forgot to add the next three zeroes myself...

[tatown]

The most shocking aspect of this is that fellow freepers actually give a crap about what the WHO or the NY Times postulates about anything.

[meatloaf]

The amount of new cases begin to rise exponentially. They can’t go public with that. The exception being if effective quarantine measures cause Ebola to burn out.

Those who are similar to the ones that raided the clinic and in doing so caused the patients to flee will be typical of those that end of dying. Ignorance is going to extract a heavy price and in the process nations will be crippled.

[I want the USA back]

It will arrive here. We have an ineffective government which is afraid to do anything because the disease affects primarily Africans and the Europeans who are trying to cure them.

The true leftist wants it to come here. After all, it’s “unfair” that it should infect Africans. Let those evil colonial Whites suffer too.

[IMR 4350]

My bet is 20,000 is when they quit counting.

I believe after that they will be so overwhelmed they can only pull out and let it take it’s course and they wont know what people are dying from.

A lot of people will probably be killed in an attempt to stop the spread before they die naturally.

[RinaseaofDs]

I posted a mathematical analysis to the Smokin’ Joe and black agnes that shows within 18 days, there will be 1000 new cases of Ebola every minute. This is from the WHO reported data only, and does not take Congo into account.

I predicted we would have 3000 cases by 26AUG14 about four days ago based on the same data. We got their a day early.

Next 1000 (4000) we should cross within 7 calendar days.

Either of those two will likely ping you with it. Within 30 days, there will be 1000 new cases per second if the reporting trend remains the way it is today, and has been since 2APR14.

[DannyTN]

I think the 20,000 is too low too. On 8/21, I estimated 10,000 in 30 days and 200,000 in 90 days. It's 9 days later and we are over 3000, with the WHO saying the numbers are underestimated. That's based on an exponential spread of a 5% increases in cases a day, which was what was being seen at the time. Nigeria suspected of understating their situation. It's spread to the Congo and Senegal apparently through edible game. 3 possible cases in the U.S. that the CNC is being secretive about.

Thread with my previous estimate post 3 and 4

What could interrupt the spread? Well the quarantines are a good start, but they aren't being applied in all areas, because the WHO are idiots. Stopping air travel would be a smart move, but so far only airlies seeking to protect their passengers have stopped flights, while the WHO encourages travel. The CNC finally yesterday admitted you can catch it just being within 3 feet of someone infected and that they are contagious before symptoms show up.

A vaccine could stop it. But the vaccine isn't being tested until September, and even if it works, how fast can they ramp production? They are talking about availability by the end of the year. That's 120 days.

If it's responsive to weather, kind of like the flu dies out when it warms up. That could stop it. But I haven't heard anything to that effect.

Things that could make the spread worse, reaching major population centers. People fleeing infected areas either because of fear of the disease, or because of hunger from the quarantines. Infected animals especially game crossing borders. People being afraid of the hospitals and risking infecting their families instead of seeking testing and help.

ZMapp might be able to head off some of those fears if they can produce it in quantity quickly enough.

I still think we are likely to reach the 200,000 mark by Nov 21.