Posted on 09/12/2014 7:40:22 AM PDT by Kartographer
So you are saying that you are 100% sure that Ebola isn’t a ‘wolf’?
Has not been for the last 5 Ebola outbreaks over the last 20 years...
OR. All inbound flights MUST go through O’Hare(Chicago), Philadelphia, New York, Detroit, LA, Boston. Land them in every Democrat Dump.
You might just try reading the article before commenting.
Therein lies the trouble.
One reason people failed to evacuate New Orleans when Katrina was in the gulf was the number of times before they’d been told ‘abandon hope, the end is nigh!’.
Previous storms just skimmed by or took other routes entirely, leaving New Orleans safe and dry.
They fully expected Katrina to do the same thing. Even 3 or 4 days out NWS had it going to the FL panhandle.
HIV isn’t transmitted nearly as easily as this version of Ebola. And the only reason you aren’t seeing thousands of HIV deaths each year is the massive and expensive cocktail of antiviral drugs they all take. You can’t get HIV from the seat of a taxi. You CAN get ebola that way. And all the western medicos who have gotten ebola have been trained, extensively, in protocols to avoid being infected with HIV positive patients. And yet they are becoming infected with this strain of ebola.
I wouldn’t really compare the two outbreaks. One has a ‘risk factor’ of either sexual contact or IV drug use. The other can infect you from a droplet of vomit several days later.
HIV has never moved through the population in Africa like ebola is doing right now.
There were lots of scientific articles on the 1990s about AIDs depopulating Africa with some countries predicted to have close to 50% of the population infected (which was a death sentence back then)
It never happened.
So how many times do scientists get to cry wolf before you tune them out?
Here is one of them:
The spread of HIV-1 in Africa is examined here in the light of recent information on the main epidemiological and behavioural determinants of transmission. Mathematical models incorporating demographic, epidemiological and behavioural processes are used to assess the potential demographic impact of the disease AIDS. These analyses highlight the significance of patterns of sexual behaviour, and in particular networks of sexual contact, on the predicted spread of infection. Current data reveal substantial variations in the degree of spread between and in countries, but new analyses support earlier predictions that in the worst-afflicted areas AIDS is likely to change population growth rates from positive to negative values in a few decades.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v352/n6336/abs/352581a0.html
Aids has killed about 36 million people, and is still killing about 1.6 million a year.
Right now the current death rate doubles every 30 days. That interval was never approached before and it continues to shorten.
While not in itself frightening the fact that is this:
It has been slow on the curve of mutation as compared to other viruses in its class but now that has changed.
This virus as the article states is dangerously close to areas where it would offer a point of no return.
We should not as with ISIS rely on a wait and see skill set.
This isn’t HIV.
This is Ebola Zaire strain.
HIV isn’t transmitted from taxi seats and doesn’t require Biohazard level 4 containment. Zebola is transmitted that way and does require BHL4 containment.
It’s depopulating West Africa right now. En masse. Whole villages are empty except for all the dead bodies in the houses. Right now.
At no time during the HIV outbreak (still ongoing) have there been bodies in the streets. At no time have medical workers been infected, en masse, even while wearing protection that would have been totally adequate for HIV.
They kill.
Viruses can evolve up or down - or not much at all. It's not known what direction this one will take - if any. But this outbreak's different. Too many medical people (who are totally familiar with Ebola and how to avoid becoming infected) were ‘catching’ the disease. That smacks of ‘different’...
There are whole villages of AIDS orphans. The grandmothers take care of them. The village does not appear to be wiped out, but in a sense it is hollowed out, with only those too young or too old surviving.
AIDS is still a killer like that. The difference now is the massive and VERY expensive cocktail of antiviral drugs HIV positive people take. For the rest of their lives. It’s like type 1 diabetes in that respect. If they stop taking those drugs, they die.
AIDS transmission from human to human requires physical sexual activity.
Ebola virus can be exhaled in droplets, or exposure to contaminated body fluids, and can form fomites on random hard surfaces which remain viable for up to five days.
Do a quick Google search on virus fomites. I think you will be amazed.
Ebola does not require human intimacy as AIDS does.
As a matter of fact , WHO reccomends remaining at least 3 feet distance from a person who is known to have Ebola, even more preferable is to be in another room.
To compare AIDS virus to Ebola virus is like comparing a paper airplane to a commercial 747 airliner because they both fly. The comparison is faulty !
The number of victims of Ebola are expected to double in the next two weeks, ..and then double again in two weeks, .. and then again double, etc., etc.
Comparison of AIDS virus to the Ebola virus is not rational, just based on the victims statistics in only 4 months , much less the method of contamination .
Osterholm is a bigtime doomer. Just go back and look at his inflamatory comments about bird flu that had not other purpose than to seemingly to emit emotion. Every single time we have an outbreak of the next ‘certain pandemic candidate’ the exact same cast of characters come crawling out of the woodwork. You are right to question their motives and if they are really concerned, their wolf crying is doing more harm than good imo.
I remember reading about the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918.
It started in Kansas, went to Europe with the troops, spread all over the world, and killed people from the Eskimos to the most remote Amazon tribesmen.
It is possible this could do the same if it goes airborne.
This comment, at link, tells us all we need to know about the lib mentality....
“Our biggest problem if the Ebola virus starts to spread in the United States is the fact that we don’t have universal healthcare. Too many people will not seek treatment out of monetary concerns. Even a lot of people with health policies that carry large deductibles will feel hard-pressed to seek treatment. Will that finally wake the American public into seeing that healthcare that is accessible to all is in everyone’s best interests?”
Good gawsh.
You’re off a little on your ‘doubling’.
Right now, officially, the open cases are doubling every 28 to 30 days, or more basically each month. On Oct 1, we will be at 6000 open cases if they R0 stays the way it is today, which is about 1.5 or so.
Wikipedia has an outstanding table and semi-log plot which will back up what I’m saying here. The doubling trend is consistent going all the way back to May.
I don’t understand the reports of ‘mutation’ being the reason why the virus is ‘suddenly taking off’.
There’s no suddenly about it. The growth rate has been stone consistent on a global basis since May.
Here’s a link - scroll nearly to the bottom. The numbers come from the WHO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa
If the open cases number starts doubling every two weeks, then you’d start seeing very drastic measures being taken.
As it is, at this rate of growth, with no interventions, you’ll be at 100,000 open cases by Jan 1. 1,000,000 open cases by May. Tens of millions by Dec 15.
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