Posted on 09/29/2014 10:02:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll always makes news and with good reason: The pollster that conducts it, Selzer & Company, is among the best in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings. On Saturday evening, the poll had an especially interesting result in Iowa’s Senate race. It put the Republican candidate Joni Ernst six points ahead of the Democrat, Representative Bruce Braley. Most other recent polls of the state had shown a roughly tied race.
Consider the implications. Republicans need to pick up six seats to win the Senate. Right now, they’re favored to win the Democratic-held seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. That’s six seats right there. In Kansas, however, the independent candidate Greg Orman is a slight favorite to defeat the Republican incumbent Pat Roberts — and Orman could caucus with Democrats if he wins. If he does, Republicans would need to pick up one more seat somewhere.
That’s where Iowa comes into play. If Republicans are favored there also, they have a path to a Senate majority without having to worry about the crazy race in Kansas. Nor is Iowa their only option. Polls have also moved toward Republicans in Colorado, where their candidate Cory Gardner is now a slight favorite.
This is an awfully flexible set of outcomes for Republicans. Win the six “path of least resistance” states that I mentioned before, avoid surprises in races like Kentucky, and all Republicans need to do is win either Iowa or Colorado to guarantee a Senate majority. Or they could have Roberts hold on in Kansas. Or Orman could win that race, but the GOP could persuade him to caucus with them.
Sounds like it’s time for Democrats to panic?
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Be very careful. i heard after you vote, you no longer are part of the poll. They take you off the list on both sides. So if a ton of Democrats voted already then this poll could not be accurate. I am just not wanting another disastrous 2012 where we looked like complete and utter idiots. And I know it was the RINOs but the entire Republican Party including Tea Partiers looked foolish.
I wonder if Mr. Silver's statistical models take Democratic ballot box stuffing into consideration? That's one of Dick Morris's analytical oversights imo.
Its Roberts job to define his opponent, which he has not done yet because he is running a crappy campaign.
No pollsters are accounting for the built-in democrat fraud factor.
Why didn't they? All this purist bullshit, after the fact, and no money or votes when it counts.
If you didn't vote or work or donate, I don't want to hear about what could have been.
Tillis has run an awful, “me too! I like Obama, Obamacare, etc”, mealy mouthed, no attack ad campaign. Its an appalling joke of a campaign. I take no glee in it.
I agree. Terrible campaign.
I don’t even live in NC. lol
I’m a few miles from the border though, and spend A LOT of time in that there. My wife is also from NC. Sort of like a 2nd home, but all I can do is bitch about their mistakes, since I can’t vote there or anything.
You have got to be f**king $h**ting me.
Run against the Obamaeconomy, Obamacare, illegal aliens, with a dab of foriegn policy. Pin it all to his opponent. Thats really quite easy, but these GOPe fools just don't get it.
Ed Gillespie was running a mini-Tillis campaign here in VA, but I just saw his first round of attack ads pinning Warner to Obama. Expect Gillespie to close. Now just if morons in the Tillis campaign will get it.
You’re giving Gillespie far more credit than I do. He has run an appalling campaign; first attack ad just debuted, while the various PACs supporting Warner have been defining Gillespie as an “Enron lobbyist” for more than six weeks.
And if you want a better barometer, Ed’s friends in the GOP-E are avoiding his race like the plague. Gillespie is the ultimate “Rove” candidate, but Crossroads hasn’t spent a dime on his campaign, as far as I can tell.
Sad, because Warner is nothing more than an Obama rubber stamp and there are plenty of Virginians who want to send him packing.
The Virginia GOP is lost in the wilderness and no one seems capable of leading them out.
Like I said yesterday, what is horrifying is that in an election year when they have all the cards, the GOP is only roughly even to take the Senate. THAT is a disaster.
And, yes. Nate Silver is the absolute best.
I think North Carolina might come around. Kay Hagan is a terrible candidate as well, and lower turnout will help Tillis.
Don’t panic, Dems -
the GOPe doesn’t REALLY want to win control of Congress.
They just want to share some of the power and go to the best cocktail parties in DC.
Just make them a deal.
The purists will proudly stay home or vote for the libertarian.
I agree with you on all accounts. In fact, I pointed all this out to a friend of mine who is a Gillespie fundraiser. Their campaign decided long ago to concentrate on areas outside of NOVA, but I they need votes there too.
Tillis is weak for certain. However do not forget that NC has turned a shade of electoral purple. The Triad, Charlotte, and Asheville are making their demographic changes destiny in the Tar Heel state. The GOPe may still pull out a win in NC, but do not count on it as being part of the Republican Senate Majority strategy.
Keep in mind that early voting can skew results. A late surge does not always translate into a victory anymore. That’s why Ernst’s lead is so sweet...it’s in time, hopefully.
DIMocRATs (the criminal enterprise) should “panic” when Justice finds them. May it be sooner than later.
I don’t have any interest one way or another in the guy, but the data speak for themselves. He was 51 for 51 in the last presidential election. He was 31 of 33 in the last Senate election. IIRC, he was 51 for 51 in the 2008 Presidential election. Pretty impressive results if you ask me.
The lottery principle would explain one such result, such as the 2008 election, for instance. There always are many forecasts made for significant events like a Presidential election. One or more of those, just by random chance, are bound to get it pretty much dead nuts on. I believe there was an octopus, for instance, that predicted correctly some rather large number of World Cup games during the one held in S. Africa. The octopus surely had no great insight into the outcome of soccer games; it was pure luck.
Similarly, after 2008, I was certainly willing to believe that Silver got lucky. However, it is much less easy to chalk it up to luck when a forecaster like Silver does very well for three consecutive elections. It seems his model is a very good predictor.
Sorry, need to be better than +1. I’ve seen what happens here in WI when we’re +1, all it takes is for one assh*le (I’m looking at you McCain!) to stomp his/her feet and tie the whole place up until he/she gets his/her way.
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