Posted on 10/12/2014 3:22:31 PM PDT by Din Maker
Two narratives have competed for attention since Campaign 2014 got underway.
One says, rightly, that the political environment favors the Republicans. Voters are unhappy. Most of the competitive races are in red states. President Obama’s approval ratings are weak. Democrats usually struggle to get their voters to the polls in midterms.
The second narrative says: Hold on, it’s not over yet. The reasons? Democrats have some popular issues on their side, from raising the minimum wage to their positions on women’s issues. Republicans have to beat a bunch of Democratic incumbents to win the six seats needed to take control in January. Some Democratic candidates have outperformed expectations.
What’s been happening over the past two weeks feeds both sides of the debate. Republicans are talking up their prospects in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa and Colorado. But wait. Democrats have suddenly decided to put $1 million into South Dakota, a state that until this week was considered a certain pick-up for the Republicans. Could that state actually be in play? In Kansas, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts remains on the defensive, though in a rock-ribbed Republican state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the New Deal. Republicans also are stepping up their advertising in Georgia. A GOP loss in any of those races could scramble predictions about who will control the Senate in January.
When a candidate leads in virtually every poll in the weeks before an election, as Obama did, that should suggest that, while the candidate does not have a guarantee of success, he or she probably has an actual advantage.
That’s not to say that all these races will end up the way they now look, only to suggest that when people think a certain candidate is going to win, he or she often wins.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Is this in the ‘News’ section or on the ‘Opinion’ page? ‘Cause it sure as he** sounds like an opinion piece!
No; not from the Opinion page. It’s from the “Politics” section of WAPO. I’m really getting concerned about South Dakota. If we lose that..... I dunno.
Dems going into SD does not mean that they’re on offense. It shows how desperate they are - as the states are falling one by one. Even blue leaning states like Iowa and Colorado now lean slightly in the Rs favor. CO in fact was a lock for the Ds up until this month. So this article is pure spin. A million bucks in SD can go further than a million in a market like Denver where Udall looks like a sure loser. Desperation time for Dems.
Well, the problem with SD is: It’s a 4-man race. You’ve got the former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) at 35%, State Sen. Weiland (D) at 32%, Former GOP Senator turned crazy-ass Liberal, Larry Pressler, running as an Independent (I) at 28%, and an Independent Conservative, Gordon Howie (IC) 5%. Now, somebody is gonna change their mind about the two lesser candidates and go for the Pubbie or the Dem. It can go either way.
I have become much more confident about KS and KY. gonna be hard to get what should have been a “gimme” in NC.
I’m only now starting to get excited by this election. The handfull of battleground states will swing the Senate. If you are in one of those states you have to get out the vote - neighbors, family, co-workers!!! Barry is counting on apathy to help him keep the Senate rubber stamp. Don’t let it happen!
Karl Rove and Joe Trippi predict that Roberts (KS) and McConnell (KY) will lose.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3214391/posts
I’m not buying it. The polls are too close to call. It’s going to come down to turn-out. The Dems in the Senate have been taking more crackpot positions the past seven years than they traditionally have. It’s hard to believe that the average voter will not feel inclined to swing things the opposite direction.
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