Ebola outbreak 2014: The terrifying statistics you need to see

news.au.com ^ | 13 Oct 2014

[11th_VA]

Dark Blue shows the number of actuall cases while light blue is the projection for the next four weeks

[cripplecreek]

We don’t get to many -70 degree Celsius days around here (That’s -94 f by the way)

Go ahead and tell yourself that you’re correct but I’m going to be glad for the cold weather which will severely restrict the spread of the tropical disease.

[mplsconservative]

I’ve read the same thing. Cold preserves the virus indefinitely.

[redgolum]

Needs to be freeze dried. Not sure about winter conditions.

[mplsconservative]

Interesting. Thanks for the info. It can be below zero here for days in the winter. I’ll have to check into what ‘freeze dried’ means.

[Covenantor]

Um.....4 degrees Celsius is about 39 degrees Farenheit.

You just might want to reconsider your syateger there hoss.

[PA Engineer]

The Canadian recommendations were based on this study and they got it wrong"

The survival of filoviruses in liquids, on solid substrates and in a dynamic aerosol

These low infectious dose reports suggest that if the initial viral titre is high, infectious quantities of viable virus could be recovered from samples stored at +4°C for periods of up to 46 days in liquid media, and from samples dried onto glass at both 26 and 50 days.

My example is a infected patient traveling by bus in a northern winter urban setting. They vomit in the snow, on the bus and outside the hospital. The virus is going to be around for a long while in the snow and slush.

This is why I am adamant we cannot allow infected people to fly into the US. The potential for fomite contamination is too great to take such an insane risk.

[Black Agnes]

Ebola samples are stored in -70 freezers indefinitely in the lab.

The colder, the longer lived.

Sitting in a hot car on a sunny day for a day or two would likely kill it.

[exDemMom]

On Varney’s show this morning, Stephen Moore suggested ebola may have been brought to the US deliberately so that our researchers and doctors would throw all their energy and resources into fighting it.

That is just plain silly. Ebola was brought here deliberately decades ago for the purpose of research. Ever hear of USAMRIID?

[roadcat]

Wowser - I guess we don't need to worry about the cold winter ahead …

I guess it's a good thing it's Fall. All the bats migrated south from Texas. If ebola hangs around until Spring, then the bats will be back, and could spread the disease if they pick up the infection.

[The Truth Will Make You Free]

Here’s the deal. As the disease progresses, more and more body fluids begin to carry the virus, and then at exponentially greater concentrations. In the last stages those body fluids are spraying all over the place. It is, after all, a hemorrhagic fever.

So in essence during the final stages the patient is a giant mass of viral contaminants, with those contaminants being actively thrown off in all directions. And, of course, invasive procedures put those performing them in direct contact with those fluids in quantity.

OTOH, before the patient becomes symptomatic he is probably not contagious at all. Thereafter he is at first only mildly infectious, with close or even intimate contact required. The degree of infectiousness increases exponentially as the disease progresses.

If this post is correct, I'd expect to see a reduction in the spread rate as everyone catches on.

[cripplecreek]

Actually I can’t help but laugh at people who think a tropical disease is just waiting for winter to run rampant in cold weather.

Its ignorance on a global warming scale.

How long you can store a virus in the lab is a whole different issue than spreading a disease.

[Covenantor]

Ummm that should read “strategy”. Sorry about that.

[JoeFromSidney]

Just remember, the rate of increase will start to decline once 50% of the population is infected, since the opportunities for additional infections are fewer.

Have a nice day.

[Pollster1]

Actually I can’t help but laugh at people who think a tropical disease is just waiting for winter to run rampant in cold weather. Its ignorance on a global warming scale.

To be fair, many infectious diseases (possibly even this tropical disease) do better in the winter, and it's not because they store better in the cold. It's because we stay indoors, with our runny noses leaking viruses and our germ-ridden hand touching things. In cold weather, we are much more crowded together in our homes, the Mall, McD's big ball pit, and similar places where it is easier to share a virus without the sun's UV light killing that virus.

[cripplecreek]

It appears that a consensus has formed.

LOL

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Smokin' Joe]

You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!

[Selene]

BTW - thanks for the link-good aerosol info-- 10-20 min-look out, 120 min - clear