So don’t you think the 62% chance, given polling since that model run, is a little low? Isn’t he forced to move to 85% or higher pretty soon?
“So don’t you think the 62% chance, given polling since that model run, is a little low? Isn’t he forced to move to 85% or higher pretty soon?”
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He recompiles his percentages virtually every day. I have developed great respect for his methodology, even when I don’t like his conclusions. If he is at 62%, there is very good reason for him to be at that number.