Russia was pressing from the East. I don't think it would have mattered that much. It's hard to say. Stalin would accelerate or slow down his forces depending on how it would or could benefit Russia. Warsaw is a perfect example.
I think what finally allowed the Allies to finish the drive on Germany was Antwerp.
Just my thoughts.
Thanks.
The best analysis I saw about German late war strategy and the Ardennes Offensive is in one of the books in my library; it might be DePuy’s “Hitler’s Last Gamble” or MacDonald’s “Time For Trumpets.” I’m not sure which because I’m at the beach with Mrs. Henkster and my library is many miles away. :-)
Anyway, the author’s conclusion was that the operational pause that commenced in late September, coupled Speer squeezing the last spasm of production from Germany’s dying industry and the final comb out of manpower enabled Hitler to assemble his last strategic reserve. The question was: “What to do with it?”
There were a number of options:
Spread the troops out to make operational reserves on both the western and eastern fronts. These reserves would intervene in local counterstrokes to thwart an enemy attack.
Concentrate the reserve in Central Poland to fight a mobile defense in depth against what everyone knows and expects to be the main Soviet axis of attack against the Reich.
Commit the reserve in Hungary to defeat Malinovsky’s 3rd Ukrainian Front.
Conduct the Ardennes Offensive, seize Antwerp, destroy 21st Army Groups and 1st Army. The British would be effectively removed from combat in Europe for a second time in the war, and the Americans would take months to recover. In the meantime, Germany shifts forces east to fight some kind of stalemate with the Soviets.
Admittedly, the last option, the Ardennes Offensive, had no real chance of succeeding. But it was the only option that offered a chance of surviving the war. All of the others might have prolonged the defeat for a few months, but led to the same result: defeat. Despite the fact that German military production will hit its peak in November, Speer has already told Hitler that he is squeezing the last effort from his war economy. The final stocks of vital and necessary raw materials like Chromium, Manganese and Tungsten are being dumped into Krupp’s blast furnaces and Germany has no hope of obtaining more. Hitler knows the economy will cease production of new weapons in a few months.
So it’s use it or lose it. Might as well use it and go down swinging.