Posted on 11/06/2014 9:24:11 PM PST by ConservativeStatement
Race is one facet, gender is another.
Minority voters, regardless of gender, are by and large beholden to the left.
Voters by gender, regardless of race, tend towards the right as far as Males go, and females tend towards the left.
In either case, the candidates presented are what determine the overall numbers in either group, and those numbers can change in either direction due to the candidate presented.
The most important group is the Female White voter, IMO. They are most numerous along with White Male voters, but they are the group that will sway most elections one way or the other, and they are the group that are made up of the most LIV’s percentage wise, IMO.
I can spend many hours breaking down the numbers and percentages to buttress my opinion, but I am out of time tonight and I'm off to bed.
Again, I want to be wrong. Show me statistics that prove me wrong and I will happily admit I am mistaken. From the numbers I've observed over the last few elections, I don't see how I'm far off base, but I will state that my opinion is my own and it is quite possible I am mistaken.
You are correct. And the Dems are playing with fire when it comes to identity politics. Over 50% of Hispanics self-describe themselves as white. If we ever develop a white identity in this country, the Dems are finished.
The Dems are dividing this country along racial, ethnic, gender, and sexual preference lines. It is destructive to our nation. Even Bill Clinton said as much the other day decrying identity politics. Some Dems are realizing they will be consumed by their own fire.
Sorry. When corrected for race, the numbers simply don't support you.
Remove 0.95 x 12.8% from the female vote when you get up in the morning, and see if you can still support your claim. You can't. White women vote the way their husbands vote. Single white women are only a slight advantage for the Democrats.
Again, turnout in 2012 was skewed by the fact that millions of conservatives, and I assume that means mostly white men and women, stayed home during that election due to the candidate presented, and I thought that was universally accepted as a fact, but I may be mistaken. (One Caveat here that I will admit I have not considered is that white women voters in 2012 were higher in overall numbers but their percentages voting for the left did not match my analysis, so I’ll have to go back and look at that again).
The same holds true for the midterms, but in reverse. Minority numbers as a whole were nowhere near the numbers, in the majority of precincts, as those in 2012 during the presidential election.
If I get the time in the near future, I will see if I can take the numbers from both elections and actually come up with some useful percentages that will either refute my beliefs or prove them. I will be happy to be wrong, as I said, but my analysis does not make me believe I am, although, as I said before, I could be wrong, and would be happy to be so.
When I get the chance, I will go over it again, and as I said before, it is entirely possible that I am mistaken.
“along with ideological voters who will be swayed by the next “first”, which will likely entail the possible first woman POTUS”
I don’t disagree with that. That’s why I’ve said over and over that we need o run a woman in 2016...
Oh good grief!!!!!
The key of course being the Democrats can figure out a way to attract enough white voters - particularly males to be competitive.
They have maxed out the minority/female vote as it is and its unlikely to get higher. If it declines, they won’t be where they need to be to win.
I think you’re exaggerating and overstating it when you say Hispanics are splitting almost down the middle in Texas and other states.
Yes, if the 44% exit poll figure for Abbott is correct, then that is a great showing for a Republican with Latinos. But it is not typical. Usually Republicans in Texas do good to get around 40%. That’s what Cruz claimed to have got in 2012, while Perry probably got a few points less than that last time. So usually the GOP is a long way from splitting the Hispanic vote, even in Texas.
I haven’t seen exit polls for New Mexico or Nevada, but even if Martinez and Sandoval did as good as Abbott with Hispanics, it would again be an exception to the norm in those states, and definitely not enough to proclaim a lasting shift.
The only state with a large Hispanic population where the GOP has won that demographic several times is Florida, and that is because Cubans are much more Republican (though less so than before) than other Latino groups.
Hispanics are still a a mostly democratic group, which is natural because they hold liberal views on most of the big issues. It is still in the GOP’s demographic best interest to greatly reduce legal immigration and oppose amnesty for illegal aliens.
Otherwise I largely agree. Whites are a block in Texas and many other southern states. If only the GOP could win over 70% of the white vote all over the south and Midwest like they do in Texas!
I’d add though that one reason whites are voting more as a block is because of our unwanted policy of unending mass immigration. If our elites are determined to makes whites another minority group, then one shouldn’t be surprised if whites start voting like one.
If the GOP wants to be a minority party, it should go ahead with amnesty.
You can’t help those who are suicide-minded.
Would you happen to know the title/number of that episode, I vaguely remember it but can't seem to find it in the cd collection?
White votes are the easiest for GOP to mine and biggest propotionate impact
Yet Rove and Preibus and Mitch and the Crying Drunk and Queeg and loose slippers in South Carolina
Will shuck that and instead force amnesty for folks who wont vote GOP for another century
Conservatism lost folks...maybe 3 folks who could be deemed tea party won
This was an anti Obama wave and the Rove Ailes GOPe machine is hanging 10 at Nazaré
“Yet those same white voters went for Mia Love and Tim Scott... Damn racists.”
The problem isn’t getting Republicans to vote for blacks. It’s getting blacks to vote for Republicans.
Democrats risk alienating white voters
Maybe talk like THIS has something to do with it...
MSNBC: ‘Old White People’ in the South Who Vote Republican Are ‘Going to Die Someday’
Yep, that probably has something to do with it alright.
I have bad news for them, though. They lost young white voters, too. The 18-29 demographic went 54-43 Republican.
Exactly. The Democrats have offered nothing in the way of positive reasons to vote for them. All they do is yell the same old screed “Republicans are racist, bigoted, misogynist homophobes.”
And then the pundits go out and bemoan the fact that the typical white American male votes against the Democratic Party?
Sorry, but this seemed to work as a strategy for a couple of years after President Obama was elected but that is no longer the case. It's become obvious the Democratic Party is all symbolism and no substance. Fabricated outrage over fabricated issues.
How racist of them.
You make a good point. This is much like the way I didn't vote for Bush the Elder in '92. I couldn't vote for Clinton either, so I voted for Perot. Even though I (and many others) didn't vote for Clinton, Bush lost because of me.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.