Soon, Within the Lives of Most of You, the American Dream Will Slip Away.

If we accept that demographics in national presidential elections are increasingly running against Republicans and even more against conservatives, we must assume that the norm will be left-leaning Presidents. Looking beyond the 2014 election and the 2016 election as well, as demographics continue to run against us, the Senate will also increasingly trend left. However, the hold by Republicans and conservatives in the House of Representatives looks to be solid for some years to come, primarily because Republicans dominate state legislatures and draw district lines.

Regardless of the outcome of the 2016 election this demographic disadvantage condemns conservatism to a defensive posture for the foreseeable future, absent some sort of cataclysmic event like slavery and the Civil War or the Great Depression which fundamentally changes party alignment and enables Republicans to regularly gain national power. Absent such a tectonic shift, Democrats will routinely prevail after the 2016 election and its consequences are played out. As conservatives are forced back to the House of Representatives as a defensive citadel, they will try to serve our children and grandchildren by stopping an increasingly aggressive Democrat President in the Obama mold, that is, an executive who imposes power through executive action (and inaction), and bureaucratic lawmaking and adjudication. Conservatives will strive to do that but too many Republicans will not.

In other words, Democrat Presidents will operate where they can be free of the checks and balances invested by the Constitution in the House of Representatives. The House will look in vain to the courts to bring the executive back under the control of the Constitution but that will become hopeless in short order as increasingly leftist Senates confirm increasingly leftist judges. The precedent set by Harry Reid to jigger the rules of the Senate will become irreversibly fixed in favor of Democrats when they ultimately retake the Senate. Over time, perhaps sooner than we would like to think, constitutionalists will find no salvation in the courts. The recent trend in the Supreme Court to overrule Obama's blatant excesses like recess appointments is a trend which will not continue because the court will change with more leftist judges appointed by Democrats and because leftist Presidents will simply become more clever which is to say, more devious.

Government by bureaucracy will accelerate. Even if the House of Representatives can check the creation of new agencies, existing agencies are so ubiquitous, so powerful and so unrestrained that an aggressive President in the Obama mold can simply rule through them. He will build on the precedents being established now by Barack Obama. These agencies have assumed the Article I power to legislate, the Article II power to prosecute, and, worse, the Article III power to adjudicate the very same crimes they have created. The Montesquieu ideal of a government of separated powers with checks and balances will simply die as an increasingly dependent electorate supports Democrat politicians who want to Get Things Done which translates in the English language to pandering to more dependent voters. The courts have traditionally granted unwarranted deference to bureaucratic fiats. There is little hope to be found among The Nine. The power of the purse in the House of Representatives will not avail. The House of Representatives will be virtually powerless to stop bureaucratic tyranny.

Whatever indirect control that would exist in the Senate over appointments to the bureaucracy will be abdicated as Democrats regain control of the Senate within the next two or three cycles. Meanwhile, recent history tells us that lack of unity by Senate Republicans means the Democrats can combine with Mavericks to confirm their appointments. There is simply no stomach in the Senate to resist even extreme radical leftists in posts like Attorney General. There is virtually no hope that the appointment process will control the bureaucracy even considering the unlikely possibility that the Republicans now in the majority in the Senate might actually withhold all confirmations apart from defense appointments. There are too few senators like Ted Cruz to carry this strategy out. We have seen how the McCain/Graham/Ayotte fifth column operates. The media will simply pile on.

The obvious need not be belabored, the power of impeachment will be rendered obsolete by a recalcitrant Senate composed of Democrats and Rino Republicans. As always, they will be supported by a blatantly partisan media. Anyway, House leadership will not countenance articles of impeachment.

Conservatives and Republicans in the House of Representatives will have the power of the purse as its sole remaining lever to try to restrain a federal government governing against the people.

In other words if the Right can manage to hold the House of Representatives, the situation will look like the era of Obama post 2010 and if the House is lost the picture will resemble the era of Obama post 2008. If the House is lost to Republicans, the power of the purse disappears entirely; if Republicans can hold the House that power will sadly be even less effective in bringing a overweening government under control than it has been post 2010. The Republican House has simply not been able to reduce spending and certainly has not been able to curb executive excesses. We are contemplating dispiriting stages of increasing impotence for the House of Representatives and, by extension, for conservatism. It is easy to see an increasingly uncivil society with the American dream slipping irretrievably away.

To paint a pessimistic future even darker, this gloomy assessment is predicated on the assumption that the center will hold, that the citadel of the House of Representatives will not only remain Republican but remain unified and committed to some level of conservatism. These assumptions have been challenged by recent history. We saw the House turned over to the other party in 2006 and, even discounting such a possibility in the next few cycles, it is quite likely that the Republican majority will attrite as the Democrat money machine is able to pick off marginal Republican House seats. Other Members will simply be bought off with "honest" graft and by K Street. Republican leaders will behave in the mold of Speaker Boehner and talk conservative while they walk Rino. Even if the House remains nominally Republican for the foreseeable future, the power of the House of Representatives to shape the destiny of the country toward a decent society will inevitably diminish over time because the House acting alone does not have the tools even with the power of the purse. While the House acting alone does not possess the tools, the Senate does not have the heart.

But what about the last election when the people rose up and swept the Democrats out of control of the Senate, swept many of them out of the House of Representatives, swept them out of state houses, elected Republican governors in Maryland Massachusetts and Illinois of all places, is this not a shift in the national sentiment and does it not mean that Republicans, contrary to the above scenario, will be able to hold the Senate and will be able to elect a president in 2016? Does it not mean that conservatism retains its appeal for the majority of Americans? Wrong question. Wrong time horizon.

If you believe that demographics is destiny, Barack Obama is shaping our destiny by executive fiat. He is importing unknown millions of a dependent class who will eventually vote overwhelmingly Democrat. These voters will not be certified in time for the 2016 election but perhaps by 2020. What is clear is that at some not too distant point in the future, in time to gain power over the lives of your children and my grandchildren, perhaps ten million to twenty million new voters will be enrolled mostly on the Democrat side.

Obama believes that he is in a win-win position. Either the Republicans acquiesce in his power grabs or overreact and impeach him or shut down the government. To protest that it will be Obama himself who will have actually shut down the government is like a tree falling in an empty forest; the media will report it the other way. Either way, Obama, banking on support of the media, wins because he is eagerly courting both government shutdown and impeachment. After all, he has the historical examples of the impeachment of Bill Clinton and the reaction to the last government shutdown. Conventional wisdom holds that Republicans overreached in both examples. And Republican leadership has uncritically accepted conventional wisdom.

The Republicans just won a stunning election victory and their momentum should carry them on to exercising effective political power. Nothing could be more illustrative of the Republican malaise than their inability to mount a coherent response to Obama's usurpations even after the people so overwhelmingly elected them to do so. Rather than educating the public about Obama's shredding the Constitution and what that means in their daily lives, establishment Republican leaders admonish their own to avoid the "P" word and the "S"hutdown word. This in the wake of an election in which they undermined conservative candidates everywhere. Scarcely a word has been uttered by any Republican leader that would educate the public about the gravity of this assault on the Constitution by Barack Obama. After knowing for months that Obama's immigration diktat was coming, the Republicans mounted no sustained effort to convince the country that their liberty is at stake.

Beyond that, no evidence that the Republican leadership is endeavoring to connect the in-flood of untold millions of immigrants with lower wages, lost jobs, flooded emergency rooms, overcrowded schools, dangerous streets, higher taxes, terrorist infiltration and terrorist attacks, and bigger more bloated government. There is no effective coordinated attempt by the Republican leadership to tell the people why this is such a miscarriage of their liberty and a looting of their purse. Republican leadership has been lobotomized.

Instead of educating the country, the Republican establishment disparages Tea Party conservatives who would. If the Republicans can do no better now in the wake of such a stunning election victory, how will they behave when they inevitably lose future elections? Somewhere over the time horizon the chance of retrieving the country from the brink will be irretrievably lost. That day is probably closer than we think.

We are describing an inevitability arising out of demographics but there is another aphorism besides demographics is destiny: Culture trumps politics. Just as conservatives are being swamped by demographics so conservatives are clearly losing the culture war. The culture which shapes our politics has been co-opted by the left. It is not necessary to recount every institution which has been given over to leftism but, clearly, our universities and high schools, our eleemosynary institutions and foundations like Ford Rockefeller etc., Hollywood, public service unions and private sector unions, the media and many of our churches have all been infiltrated and are now dominated by the left. Most galling, in many cases left has contrived to force conservative taxpayers to involuntarily fund the indoctrinations of our children through their ubiquitous cultural domination.

Even if demographics inevitabilities were not about to swamp us, our elections are being lost in the culture and, therefore, there is no guarantee, indeed no reason to believe, that Republican victories, if they can somehow be had, will lead to conservative governance. Recent history, cultural realities and common sense rule out that assumption. Thus, we are moving to the conclusion that there is very little chance of long-term conservative governance in American national politics. More, even if Republicans are elected and nominally take control of the federal government, for example in 2016, there is very little reason to believe that they will govern as conservatives. Finally, once we get past the 2016 election and any Republican administration then elected, we are confronted with the dismal prospect of spending years in the political wilderness as we impotently watch the country disintegrate.

Why is the country in danger of disintegration? Even without Obama, the Democrat party has surrendered itself to Marxism so any subsequent Democrat presidents are likely to govern in the manner of Barack Obama and that implies an increasing level of tyranny. They will have his administration as a precedent for more usurpations. The capacity as well as the incentive of Republicans to protect us from tyranny is illusory.

But even without Democrats in control, the federal government is on automatic pilot toward a terrible fiscal reckoning with a national debt of approximately $18 trillion, unfunded liabilities probably well in excess of $100 million, incalculable trillions of dollars of derivative threats floating above Wall Street, a world economy in deflation mode with no one really understanding why, certainly no one at the Fed which has been unable to fix it. The country faces external threats from Islamic radicals, Russian thugs, and an expansionist and aggressive China. If we do nothing, events are likely to take over to our peril.

What to do? By all means we should strive to elect conservatives but over time we are unlikely to prevail because of demographics, culture, media and the infamous pusillanimity of Republican leadership. We are unlikely to win any elections and, even having won, unlikely to produce conservative governance. The solution clearly is not to be found in Washington. To continually seek the solution in Washington with the evidence of failure after failure is to deserve to be defined as "insane." Yet, if we don't act….

There is a solution outside of Washington in an arena untainted by many of the influences which render conservatives impotent in Washington and that, of course, is in our state legislatures where many conservatives hold sway and where the playing field is much more to our advantage. The Article V movement does offer a constitutionally authorized way to save the Republic. With the wave of Republican victories in state legislatures in the last election the odds of getting effective amendments through have been increased while the ability to derail unwise amendments has reached moral certainty. As a conservative I entertain a jaundiced view of the moral nature of man and I do not except state legislators from that judgment, I merely say that they will be corrupt in a different way from the national legislators, a way less dangerous than the corruption in those who hold so much power over every aspect of our lives in Washington.

The upside is certainly not guaranteed, it is a daunting task after all to convince three quarters of the states to ratify a change to the Constitution, but it is certainly more likely than reforming Washington. To line up three quarters of the states behind amendments that would actually change Washington procedurally where it counts, for example, in reining in the bureaucracy and the judiciary, is not an easy undertaking and probably would require some sort of national shock to overcome inertia but every day the likelihood of that shock increases.

We can either grab hold of the remedy supplied to us by the framers of the Constitution and embark on reforming our government according to conservative lines through the Article V process or we can passively watch the crackup.

Good post!
But unfortunately, America IMO is under judgement. The constitution was written for a moral people. USA is mystery Babylon.
I do believe that while we are here solutions such as article 5 need to be tried.
We need to seek out like minded Christians for fellowship and support. The mega churches and institutional churches are lukewarm Laodicean churches for the most part.
We also need a plan B for a new exodus; a place for God fearing people to go and start a renewed Western Christian society. I do not believe in the pre-tribulation rapture, and I believe that many of the prophecy scholars have been quietly moving away from this idea.
The US is a big country with a big government; it will not be a pleasant place when the hammer strikes.

“If we accept that demographics in national presidential elections are increasingly running against Republicans and even more against conservatives,”

One thing about this that is really upsetting and unsetteling is that the republicans are being compliant with the democrats and except for a few Conservative Republicans are offering no resistance. The republicans are attacking their Conservative Republican base with enthusiasm, venom and vitriol that should be directed at democrats. As my wife a I were discussing our relation to government has become “Them against US”, apparently it is now also democrats, republicans and Big Government against Conservative Republicans, us. After fifty plus years I don’t believe the Republican party has a place for me anymore, after all I’m not a mindless do as I’m told voter, I used to think it was only the democrats that wanted that kind of support.

Obama just gave turned 5 million illegals into democrat voters. this dictator has no authority to do this. it's all about giving them work permits then allowing them to vote. he's got no authority to give them work permits etc. The Constitution makes the presidency a weak office only to execute the LAW as written by Congress to the letter not to modify it or give work permits to illegal aliens who broke the law

it's probably 3 times that much.

government /socialism doesn't work. even Lenin and socialist China turned to “state capitalism” : that is still mosty capitalism (privately owned businesses). the economies where most of production is owned by government collapsed rapidly , Cuba, China, cambodia , N korea, n vietnam etc. why do stupid liberals/democrats think government can work? government is unnaccoutable.

It is silly to think, as many at FR do, that those who profit so well from the existing system will willing give up their power. Just keep voting pubbie? No thanks.

I merely say that they (state legislatures/federal senators) will be corrupt in a different way from the national legislators, a way less dangerous than the corruption in those who hold so much power over every aspect of our lives in Washington.

Yes, the republic thrived prior to 1913 when corruption was diffused among the several states.

The 17th concentrated power and corruption in DC.

Today, all power is swirling into the vortex of the executive. As the end of the Roman republic is dated from the day Caesar crossed the Rubicon, the American Republic quietly slipped into despotism last Thursday, 11/20/14.

I predict the next congress in 2015 will be proforma, an illusion, a hologram of an actual assembly of the people and states. Because of this, the conservative base will not show up in 2016, and Granny Warren will have a congress more compliant than a senate of the Roman emperors, whose purpose was to give the patina of law to every imperial proclamation.

That is of course, unless we use the power bequeathed to us by the framers and restore the American federal republic. The window is narrow, two years at most.

Article V NOW!

Sadly, many people are terrified of true freedom because it includes the freedom to fail. Then there are the greedy people always wanting a handout. Those two groups together often create a majority.

The fundamental problem is the misalignment of morality and practicality. In America past before the new deal, it was both moral and practical to work hard and be self sufficient. The price of not doing so was hunger, cold and general misery. Today, of course it is still moral to behave that way. But increasingly, it is no longer practical when there are so many entitlements to be had. So, morality and practicality have diverged.

What will it take for morality and practicality to realign? Short of a religious (moral) revival, I fear an enormous economic collapse will start the realignment. Government will be unable to alleviate the suffering, and only then will a lasting majority of people realize they cannot rely on government. Practicality will then be defined once again as hard work and self sufficiency...but only after much suffering.

Nope. Demographics aren’t changing that dramatically. The cycle continues on as it has for over a century. A few weeks ago was the typical 2nd midterm blood bath. 2 years from now will be the typical “screw these guys” changing of which party is in the White House. The amnesty won’t change that, it’s not nearly enough people to overpower the mushy middle. Those are the folks that really decide elections, and most of what the mushy middle thinks is that who ever is in charge this week are idiots.

U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050
BY JEFFREY S. PASSEL AND D’VERA COHN

Executive Summary

If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.

Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren.

Among the other key population projections:

Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago.
The major role of immigration in national growth builds on the pattern of recent decades, during which immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren accounted for most population increase. Immigration’s importance increased as the average number of births to U.S.-born women dropped sharply before leveling off.
The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005.
Births in the United States will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth; as a result, a smaller proportion of both groups will be foreign-born in 2050 than is the case now.
The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; whites will become a minority (47%) by 2050.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/

It’s a spiritual problem and as John Silber said 20 year ago-—

In a wealthy society it is very hard to maintain spiritual values. The abundant wealth is man made so you worship mans creations and you are in awe of them. When you are poor you are more dependent on God’s creations and interact with them (such as a rural setting)

Also see-— worship of the Golden Calf (obviously)

The racial political relation isn’t as tight as the doom sayers want to think. 10 years ago we were supposed to be looking at a permanent conservative majority, a few years before that the libs were insisting their majority was going to be permanent, now you’re insisting the dems are going to have a permanent majority. Meanwhile out here in reality the country is divided basically in 3rds: 1/3 basically conservative, 1/3 basically liberal, and the mushy middle. And it’s that middle that decides elections, and makes sure there are no permanent majorities.

I will lay out EXACTLY what will happen over the next handful of elections:
2 years from now unless the GOP really screws it up (basically by obsessing on Obama, forget him, he’ll be gone) whoever they nominate will win the White House. With small coattails in Congress (very small owing to how much they already control).
2 years after that, the first mid term. Barring another 2002 botch by the dems the GOP loses a bunch of seats. Again given the numbers they already have expect it to be major.
2 years after that, as much as America loves to loves to undercut the president’s party in midterm they still love to re-elect presidents.
2 years after that, second midterm. GOP bloodbath.
2 years after than the mushy middle will have had their fill of the GOP in the White House and the dem nominee wins.
But then things reset, same pattern as above, just switch the parties, GOP gains in the midterms, dem pres gets re-elected, another 2nd midterm bloodbath, and then the GOP gets the White House back.

The mushy middle decides elections, and the mushy middle grows weary of the guys in charge. There are no permanent majorities. And anybody that thinks otherwise doesn’t pay attention to the plainly obvious highly repetitive cycle of election results.

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