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Unfortunately it is a fantasy because the Conservatives will duke it out among Cruz, Perry, Paul, Santorum, Carson, and possibly half a dozen more. I think the GOPe will rally behind a Bush or a Romney very quickly. That will allow them to build momentum while the Conservative vote is still fractured.

I'm not too sure about that. Here's how I see things:

Cruz: probable top tier candidate, unless he and his campaign implode. Will have significant support, but money will be a question.

Perry: established rep as an idiot. Will lack both support and money.

Paul: established rep as a nut. Will lack money, but inherit his Dad's supporters and build them out. Slightly.

Santorum: Seen as an also-ran, has had too low of a public profile since 2012. Will lack support and money, particularly with Cruz in the race.

Carson: will be haunted by his gun-control statements. Will lack money and support.

As to the others who may be in the race:

Walker: possible top-tier candidate, also a possible Perry 2012 waiting to happen. We'll see.

Bush: probable top-tier candidate, will have big money, good organization and possibly decent support.

Romney: probable second-tier candidate, will have the same as Bush

Christie: probable second-tier candidate. Money and org will be unknown (he was relying on being the sole moderate in the field, will now potentially have to compete with Bush and/or Romney), but he can really ramp up the rhetoric and probably attract decent support.

So, when it comes to the top candidates in the race, I see it as Cruz, Walker, Bush, Romney and Christie, with everyone else playing the role of ankle-biter.

I do not disagree that Cruz is the premier choice in the pack. And I agree all but he will drop out at one point or another. But before then they’ll win primaries, as Gingrich and Santorum and Cain did. My fear is that as with 2012, the establishment will rally behind one candidate while the Conservatives split the vote in the primaries. At the end of the day you’ll have half a dozen conservatives who won primaries but none of which won enough delegates to get the nomination. In the mean time you’ll have Bush or Romney who won their share of primaries and did well enough in the rest to sew up the election.