The Syrian Army Is Shrinking, And Assad Is Running Out Of Soldiers

When the U.S. launched an airstrike campaign in Syria to “degrade and destroy” the so-called Islamic State, some were concerned that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad would indirectly benefit from the destruction rained down on its enemies by America and its allies. Now, nearly three months later, Assad is desperate for manpower to maintain control in areas where pro-regime support is dwindling.

U.S. airstrikes, concentrated in areas with a heavy Islamic State presence, have allowed Assad to reallocate some resources, but his army is facing a huge problem: It's running out of soldiers. Ground forces have shrunk from 315,000 to roughly 150,000 troops since the beginning of the civil war in 2011, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The brutality shown by the Islamic State, or ISIS, against Syrian forces in certain areas has hurt morale among troops, and deteriorating living conditions have increased discontent in certain regime-allied minority groups. That has effectively dried up Assad’s conscription pool, and ended the regime's chances of beating the rebels on the ground.

Thanks MinorityRepublican.

Syria conflict: Rebels capture key Idlib army bases [12/15/2014 ]
His problem becomes finding manpower; his Alawite core isn't all working directly for him. The approach the regime took early on was to turn weapons and responsibilities to the local henchmen, and he's entirely reliant on outside aid to keep food on the tables and bullets in the guns. The civil war has been one of attrition, and in the nationwide turmoil there's simply no way to skin off any more conscripts.

So, as they die, there is no fill behind.

FTM, as they flee, there is no fill behind.

He'll have to make a decision, soon, whether he'll continue to watch his remaining dictatorship get whittled away, while 19,000 Iranian thugs and thousands more Hizzie proxy thugs continue to rule their own enclaves as the Iranian mullahcracy continues to foster dependence.

His options don't include finding rebels to treat with -- even if they trusted him, he isn't really interested in anything but a return to the way things were. Those days are gone.

If he wants out, he can make sure his own are quietly moved over to the edge of the board, then join them, and they make a run for it. Most likely the Iranians don't want him to leave, so his ride will have to be with the Russians. The Russians conducted evacuations such as they could, in 2012, and again in 2013.

The only other possible option would be to make peace with the Israelis and make alliance with them to defeat the rebels, the Hizzies, and the Iranians. That's about as likely as a two foot snowfall in Damascus.

And it looks like this -- French Official: Russia plotting to start war on Israel -- isn't likely, unless Assad and ISIS join forces. That outcome would only be possible if ISIS and Assad were already allies. The way they fight, it looks that way, but Assad's standing back while ISIS attacks other militias, because he has limited resources.

Putin's going to be humiliated again by Assad's flight or defeat, or will have to split with Iran and back negotiations and resignation of Assad, or commit troops and years to Syria.

“The Alawite nation refuses to be annexed to Muslim Syria, because the Islamic religion is thought of as the official religion of the country, and the Alawite nation is thought of as heretical by the Islamic religion. Therefore we ask you to consider the dreadful and terrible fate that awaits the Alawites if they are forced to be annexed to Syria, when it will be free from the oversight of the Mandate, and it will be in their power to implement the laws that stem from its religion. [According to Islam, the idol-worshiping heretic has a choice to convert to Islam or be slaughtered.]”

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