Posted on 12/27/2014 12:49:47 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Runs on the bank. Hyperinflation. A plummeting ruble. It sounds like today's Russia, but these were also the symptoms of its last economic meltdown, in 1998. That would eventually force Russian President Boris Yeltsin out of power, and put an awkwardly shy and relatively unknown KGB official named Vladimir Putin in his place.
No one believed Putin would survive more than a few months in the Kremlin. But 'Putinism' - a mix of authoritarian rule and economic prosperity based almost entirely on vast oil and natural gas reserves - has kept its namesake in power for the past 15 years.
Now President Putin faces another major economic crisis. Left unresolved, it could threaten his hold on power, according to some Russian analysts.
"If [the] crisis will deepen, which most likely it will do, and if it will be quite prolonged, then of course sooner or later it will have an impact on [his] popularity," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of "Russia in Global Affairs."
This time, the planets are not aligning behind the Russian leader. The price of oil has plummeted, shrinking Putin's budget and eviscerating his currency. Financial sanctions, imposed by the US and European Union, are blocking his access to Western banks and thus the funds he needs to restart his economy. Worst of all for Putin, this time his diehard supporters are hurting the most.
Ruslan Nekrilov, 37 and Elena Skukova, 40, live in a small but comfortable apartment in a middle-class Moscow suburb. Both worked for state-owned companies and voted for Putin in the last election. But within just months, the couple says, they've seen food prices skyrocket by as much as 40 percent.
When they shop, they never buy more than a few items and have decided to grow more food in their garden to offset the rampant inflation that eats up their rubles. "We are now living from hand to mouth," Ruslan said, sitting beside Elena in their modest living room. Elena, who recently lost her job as a logistics planner - agreed. "Like millions of Russians, we live on credit. We have a car loan, lots of debts. But we can't pay off any of them now," she said.
They are just two faces of a growing economic malaise sweeping across Russia, even as Putin tries to project confidence and calm his electorate's nerves, insisting that Russia will emerge stronger from this crisis within two years.
There are other faces. like those of the unemployed who - angry and ashamed - at least find a bowl of soup at outdoor kitchens just in time for the brutal Russian winter. Or the families who line up for hours outside banks to empty their accounts of rubles before buying anything of value - electronics, furniture - before prices soar higher. "Everybody wants to protect themselves," said Moscow resident Alyona Karuntseva at the checkout of one IKEA store, "so that what happened in the 1990s won't repeat itself."
Many Russians are adapting. Elena and Ruslan are choosing to shop at less expensive local markets, replacing imported foreign goods - mostly banned by the government in retaliation against sanctions - with products like Russian salmon or cheese. Kasha, or buckwheat - an old Soviet favorite - has made a comeback on Russian dining tables, sometimes replacing all other courses.
Larisa a 60-year-old pensioner who refused to give her family name, is one of many who have cut back on one of their most cherished perks, foreign travel. "We used to take vacation abroad, like in Spain, but it's just too costly now," she said.
Even as Russia sinks back into recession for the first time in 6 years, Putin remains popular among his long-time supporters. His approval rating surpasses 80 percent, according to a recent Associated Press-National Opinion Research Center poll.
Ruslan would still vote for him. "I blame America for this situation," he said. "They want to conquer the world and be Number One!"
Some Kremlin-watchers would bet that Putin still has enough political capital - and foreign reserves - to ride out this storm if he can maintain his tight control over the Russian media and hammer home his message that Russia is under attack from the inside and out.
Former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, says it's part of a narrative Putin has adopted for at least the past couple of years. "That the West is out to get Russia, that the White House wants to bring about regime change inside Russia, and that he - Putin - is defending Russia against these external enemies." All the more frightening - says McFaul - because Putin truly believes it.
It's one reason why 'the Russian bear', under Putin, is flexing its muscles of late, with Putin launching explosive war games on the borders with Ukraine and the Baltics, and even sending fighter jet patrols inside NATO air space in numbers unseen since the end of the Cold War. "He's sending a signal, he's testing the NATO Alliance, and I think in very dangerous ways," said McFaul.
Among Russian analysts reached by NBC News, there's some consensus that Putin's energy-based economy, and his aggressive policies in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, are ticking time bombs that must be reversed if he is to survive this crisis.
In the meantime, Putin has sought the quick fix by raising interest rates a surreal 17 percent to stabilize the ruble - so far, unsuccessfully - calling on his government this week to freeze the price of vodka. That might buy him some time. But how long?
Russia needs a more sane leader, one who will concentrate on the well being of the people and it’s economy, and who doesn’t cling to the belief that war is how Russia grows and benefits, because power and conquest is all that matters.
Westerners keep making a fundamental error of projection when they “analyze” the situation in Russia through the prism of their own experiences. Most Russians have suffered far greater degradations and a denial of human and economic rights under the vile Communists. Russians for the most part realize that their country is just evolving from the communist catastrophe and their long term future is bright. They view Putin as a patriotic nationalist, are tolerant of mistakes in a strong purposeful leader and remain confident that he is is leading them in the general right direction. It is true that Americans would panic if the dollar collapsed but the Russian have had far worse experiences and view these tings a bit differently.
Regardless of what you think of Putin, Russians believe the US is waging economic warfare on them.
It started with the battle over Ukraine in the last decade, and now is on to economic sanctions and using dollar hegemony to squeeze the Russian economy and population. When that doesn’t work, I wonder if Obama will be ready for outright warfare?
Crippling Russia is a valiant and important goal no matter what the means.
They are permanent enemies. Dangerous and shifty ones.
When you have the upper hand, crush them to oblivion.
Most Russians believe that the U.S. is waging economic warfare upon them, yes . . . because they are idiots and all they have is the Russian media to inform them.
This is what disinformation looks like, kiddies.
Please identify the disinformation.
Source NBC.
Ok, so you are talking out of your ass. Thanks.
Nahh. It’s just that you’ve got “ignore me” written all over you.
There ya’ go. Best stick to the Chat threads, then.
Sure thing. No offense intended.
Oh, I’m not offended. I just asked you to back-up your assertion, that’s all. People can’t, and I understand why . . . it’s the internet, after all.
I did.
Right, sure you did. haha
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