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Russia Debt One Grade Above Junk With Downgrades Coming, How Likely is Default?
Townhall.com ^ | December 28, 2014 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 12/28/2014 6:24:46 AM PST by Kaslin

All three rating agencies are expected to downgrade Russia's debt to junk soon and bailouts to Russian banks are on the rise, but how likely is default?

The Financial Times reports ...

Russia trebled the size of its bailout of troubled lender Trust Bank to Rbs99bn ($1.9bn) on Friday, laying bare the growing financial fallout from its currency crisis and the slump in the price of oil, its main export.

The rapidly rising cost makes the rescue of Trust bank, which foundered as the rouble collapsed early last week, the second-largest seen in Russia. It has now consumed a tenth of the money earmarked by the government last week for bank bailouts.

The authorities also said they would spend Rbs320bn ($5.9bn) propping up two other banks. Anton Siluanov, finance minister, said state-owned VTB, the second-largest lender by assets, could receive Rbs100bn before the end of this year and another Rbs150bn in 2015, while Gazprombank could be allocated Rbs70bn.

Trust Bank was the first financial institution to fall victim to the currency crisis as it suffered a run on deposits by customers panicked by the steep drop in the rouble’s value, which at one point on December 16 plummeted to an all-time low of 80 against the dollar.

The central bank said that the state-run Deposit Insurance Agency would provide Trust Bank with up to Rbs99bn. It would give an additional Rbs28bn loan to Bank Otkritie, one of Russia’s largest private lenders, to restructure Trust Bank, with the two then merging by the end of 2020.
Foreign Reserves

Although US and EU sanctions make it difficult for Russian companies to obtain financing, and although the Russian banking system is a mess, sovereign default will only occur if Russia cannot meet its foreign debt obligations.

Russia has about $4000 billion in foreign currency reserves, lowest since 2009, but foreign currency obligations for 2015 total about $120 billion.

On that score, the immediate risk seems slim. In fact, one has to wonder if the impending downgrade to junk is politically motivated.

Regardless, the US severely underestimates the fallout, especially to Europe, should default occur.

Sanctions are economic madness and Obama's claim they are working is preposterous. For further discussion, please see Russia Under Attack: Letter from CEO of Genoil to CEO of JPMorgan Chase on US Foreign Policy Blowback


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Cuba; Culture/Society; Editorial; Russia
KEYWORDS: 1643835616aday; crimea; cuba; donetsk; iran; lebanon; nicaragua; opec; putinsbuttboys; ruble; russia; saudiarabia; ukraine; venezuela; vladtheimploder
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1 posted on 12/28/2014 6:24:46 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

America’s debt is soon to be 18 trillion dollars.

(and that is RAPIDLY growing)

Maybe we should pay attention to America’s problems for a change.


2 posted on 12/28/2014 6:26:07 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
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To: Kaslin

I wonder if anyone doubts why socialists are so desperate to prop up oil prices with environmental regulations. /s


3 posted on 12/28/2014 6:30:54 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by government regulation.)
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To: Kaslin
Russia has about $4000 billion in foreign currency reserves, lowest since 2009, but foreign currency obligations for 2015 total about $120 billion.

Somehow I doubt the author's arithmetic.

4 posted on 12/28/2014 6:32:50 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by government regulation.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Exactly. At $18T in debt, if we weren't he benchmark currency, we would have defaulted long ago.

We are basically functioning mostly as a highly leveraged world's bank with an empty vault that only contains a printing machine.

5 posted on 12/28/2014 6:34:18 AM PST by catfish1957 (Everything I needed to know about Islam was written on 11 Sep 2001)
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To: Kaslin

Oh no!
Now the Russians are going to sue the rating agencies!

Woe be upon us!


6 posted on 12/28/2014 6:34:49 AM PST by DUMBGRUNT (The best is the enemy of the good.)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

And before that, Pooty’s apologists and webtrolls will rush in to bash all banks, the World Bank, and all credit rating agencies.


7 posted on 12/28/2014 6:44:02 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: Carry_Okie; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

/bingo


8 posted on 12/28/2014 6:44:22 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: DUMBGRUNT
Now the Russians are going to sue the rating agencies!

They will hack the rating agencies and become AAA+

9 posted on 12/28/2014 6:51:40 AM PST by FatherofFive (Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: Cringing Negativism Network

Look up the total derivatives that would likely default if Russia goes down.

Look up Credit Default Swaps.

If Russia goes down, it could mean lights out for Europe. And that kind of a “flu” hits everyone.

You should be concerned.


11 posted on 12/28/2014 7:01:52 AM PST by Vermont Lt (Ebola: Death is a lagging indicator.)
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To: Vermont Lt

Look China just surpassed America to become the world’s largest producer.

They CONTINUE to grow, we continue to buy ever-more from them, and we continue to go further in debt.

I a frankly much, much more concerned with China.

America has completely sold out. We need to bring back American industry, and stop buying everything from China.

If the GOP won’t do that, then we need a new party.

What we have now, is broken.

Completely.

Russia isn’t the problem. American dependency is the problem. We need to build up our own country once again.


12 posted on 12/28/2014 7:07:11 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
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To: SunkenCiv
lol, if you haven't read it yet...
13 posted on 12/28/2014 7:19:54 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by government regulation.)
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To: Kaslin

Very likely, if history is a guide.


14 posted on 12/28/2014 7:21:08 AM PST by 9thLife
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To: Kaslin

Nothing to see here, all of this is and was expected. They are normal consequences and symptoms of a DEBT BASED MONETARY System. Everything you see regarding the Banking System and Monetary Systems around the world is pre-planned and expected. It is Called Asset Stripping of a Nation and it’s people. The only possible outcome of a DEBT BASED MONETARY SYSTEM, Credit Money.


15 posted on 12/28/2014 7:25:37 AM PST by eyeamok
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

You will never get industry back in the US. We will become the low cost provider before that happens.

You are thinking too jingoisticly. America, is run by the oligarchs. This was most evident with the BS the House pulled right after the election. When the oligarchs run things, they only care about their money and power. It doesn’t matter where it comes from.

China is trying to bail out Russia. They will agree to oil and other resource trades that do not include the dollar. That will send billions back to the U.S. that will not bode well for us.

Russia can turn off the gas spigot to Europe. The U.S. has a lot of Nat gas, but we cannot transport it to Europe effectively. And we will not have that capacity for a long time.

The pieces are getting lined up against us. Europe will have to decide pretty soon which way they are going.

I agree China will be the emerging power. But it’s the Russian Bear and Putin who will start the process.


16 posted on 12/28/2014 7:33:41 AM PST by Vermont Lt (Ebola: Death is a lagging indicator.)
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To: Carry_Okie

It should read 400 billion in foreign currency reserves, not 4000 billion.


17 posted on 12/28/2014 7:33:46 AM PST by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: Kaslin

The GREAT STORY of 2014 is how America’s Oil and Gas Production has reached RECORD Levels Despite Obongo!!!!!!


18 posted on 12/28/2014 7:34:02 AM PST by bandleader
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To: mac_truck
It should read 400 billion in foreign currency reserves, not 4000 billion.

Thanks. I scanned the article, but after a critical error like that decided it wasn't worth a careful read.

19 posted on 12/28/2014 7:46:14 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by government regulation.)
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To: Carry_Okie; Kaslin; SunkenCiv
The Russian foreign reserves that can be used is less than $200 bn

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/18/us-russia-cenbank-reserves-idUSKBN0JW24J20141218

and they need a lot of money to save their banks and oil companies. According to this http://www.timesofisrael.com/russias-economy-could-collapse-in-months-says-financial-forecaster/

Russia will experience a total economic collapse within months.

20 posted on 12/28/2014 8:18:57 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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