Posted on 01/15/2015 6:32:17 AM PST by blam
Elena Holodny
January 15, 2015
Societe Generale is out with its latest quarterly chart of "swan" risks — and it's looking pretty ominous.
Technically speaking, "black swan" risks are by definition nearly impossible to predict — and when they come, it's bad. But the point that SocGen's swan chart is trying to show is there are economic and geopolitical risks stewing that could seriously rock the economy and the markets if they occur.
Once again, further deterioration in the eurozone area is the most significant downside risk. The risk of a hard economic landing in China "somewhat eased," according to SocGen.
Additionally, "geopolitical risks are numerous; the most significant risk at teh current juncture for financial markets is the Russia-Ukraine crisis," the analysts state.
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(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Well, the first one regarding Ukraine energy disruption happened yesterday, as Russia cuts of 60% of gas flow to 6 euro countries.
You would think Russia would need the cash.
So the lowest probability swan at 9% is the one that actually happens?
I assume people get paid to make nifty charts like that.
“as Russia cuts of 60% of gas flow to 6 euro countries.”
Effectively cutting off its nose to spite its face.
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