Paper tiger in Syria

In the wake of this weekend's Israeli strike in the Golan Heights, which killed Hezbollah operatives and an Iranian general, Sunday's comments by Syria's information minister are particularly illuminating.

Omran Zoubi said the "cost of maintaining regional security is much lower than that of a huge deterioration that develops in a negative way," which can be read as an appeal for the Israelis to avoid taking things further. In contrast, officials from Hezbollah and have spoken openly about retaliation, something that used to threaten after Israeli strikes in the past.

This demonstrates that the Syrian regime exists on paper, but when it comes to matters of national sovereignty, allows Iran and Hezbollah to call the shots. The Syrian government continues to function, but spends much of its time pursuing its bizarre line of rhetoric -- such as, the country is in the grips of an international conspiracy, while efforts are being made to promote tourism.

The jihadi and the Nusra Front, and rebel groups of all stripes control most of the country, while a U.S.-led coalition launches airstrikes at will, with the grudging support of Syria's closest allies.

Meanwhile, Syrian authorities allow Iran and Hezbollah to take the lead on virtually all battlefronts -- in and around Damascus, in Aleppo, and elsewhere, including the Golan Heights, long a symbol for the regime's rhetoric of "defying" Israel.

All of the talk about Syrian national institutions has been shown to be a lot of hot air, as many regime supporters complain at length about real control being wielded by corrupt politicians and black marketeers, non-Syrian armed groups and foreign powers.

The Syrian authorities, meanwhile, have only one function: to let the entire country be destroyed, as long as the regime of President is allowed to survive.

Bread or the stick — Zero, Lurch, et al offer Assad a way out from under the current foreign occupation and a way to regain power in at least some part of Syria, while Israel shows him what will happen if he turns it down. Diplomacy is often said to be war by other means, but the fact is, war is diplomacy by other means.

Ya’alon: Lebanon, Syria will be held responsible for revenge attacks
http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-lebanon-syria-will-be-held-responsible-for-revenge-attacks/

Yaalon: Israel Will Work to Depose Assad if Attacked from Syria
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/190444

Hezbollah says Israel wants to set ‘new rules’
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/lebanon/hezbollah-says-israel-wants-to-set-new-rules-1.1446534

Time to cooperate [snip] ...the region cannot bear the brunt of another war. However, it would be futile to call on Iran or its stooge Hezbollah to exercise restraint. Tehran is already playing a dirty game in the region by promoting sectarianism... What will Tehran gain from all these conflicts? Perhaps, Iran is thinking that by using these tactics, it can render the Arab world weak and rule the roost. [/snip]
http://www.arabnews.com/letters/news/694321

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on the U.S., Syria and the Islamic State
[what a mealy-mouthed lying jackass]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/turkish-prime-minister-ahmet-davutoglu-on-the-us-syria-and-the-islamic-state/2015/01/23/bf7685e0-a258-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html

Shifting Realities in Syria [snip] As recently as October, [Lurch] argued that there will never be peace in Syria as long as President Bashar al-Assad “remains the focus of power” there. Even now, American officials continue to insist that any lasting political solution will require [the dictator’s] exit. But the unsettling truth is that the brutal dictator is still clinging to power and the United States and its allies are going to have to live with him, at least for now. [Lurch] seemed tacitly to acknowledge as much recently when he urged [the dictator] to change his policies, while omitting the usual call for him to leave office. [/snip]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/opinion/sunday/shifting-realities-in-syria.html?_r=0

U.S. ambivalence towards Moscow talks shows pressure easing on Syria’s Assad
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/25/us-mideast-crisis-syria-diplomacy-idUSKBN0KY0K220150125

A conspicuous failure of U.S. foreign policy in Syria
On Syria policy, playing it safe gives the U.S. little leverage - LA Times
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-mcmanus-syria-20150125-column.html

and, from the “what are their FR nicks” desk:

Face It, Obama. Without Assad, You’ve Got No Strategy in Syria
Leslie H. Gelb for The Daily Beast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/22/face-it-obama-without-assad-you-ve-got-no-strategy-in-syria.html

Most US Airstrikes in Syria Target a City That’s Not a “Strategic Objective”
Why is America’s ISIS strategy in Syria all about bombing the hell out of Kobani?
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/01/airstrikes-syria-kobani-statistics-operation-inherent-resolve

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