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The $500 Million Powerball Jackpot And Why It's Not Worth Buying A Ticket
BI ^ | 2-11-2015 | Andy Kiersz

Posted on 02/11/2015 2:49:21 PM PST by blam

Andy Kiersz
February 11, 2015

The Powerball lottery drawing for Wednesday evening has an estimated jackpot prize of $500 million.

While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.

Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value". The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes: If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run, the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gambling; lottefy; odds; powerball
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Myself and two of my buddies have invested in 15 tickets for two drawings.($20 bucks each)

No-one won the Saturday night drawing...there's another drawing tonight.

If there's no winner tonight, I will buy more tickets for the next two drawings.

1 posted on 02/11/2015 2:49:21 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

I looked it up. The last go around, one winning ticket was sold. Can you imagine? One $270mm ticket?


2 posted on 02/11/2015 2:50:40 PM PST by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto!)
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To: blam

I bought three two dollar double your winning tickets. (doesn’t double the main prize, but any lesser prize.)

Can’t win if you don’t play!


3 posted on 02/11/2015 2:53:10 PM PST by chris37 (heartless)
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To: blam

He skipped another big problem - if more than one winning ticket is sold, the prize gets divided between them.

That said, I’ve got one ticket in my wallet right now.


4 posted on 02/11/2015 2:53:57 PM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: All

I bought one.

Yeah, my chances of winning are just about nil - but what the hell?

Lightning could strike.


5 posted on 02/11/2015 2:54:18 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: blam

At worst they’re $2 bookmarks....

My boss was one of those “The lottery is a tax on people that are bad at math” guys... I told him at 180 million to 1 the odds were infinitely better than getting rich working for him.

My brother-in-law always went on about how most lotto winners were broke in a couple years... I told him that was because they gave money to their in-laws, and that I wouldn’t make that mistake.


6 posted on 02/11/2015 2:54:31 PM PST by Tijeras_Slim
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To: blam
Ooh, almost forgot!
Thanks for the reminder, gotta buy my ticket on the way home.
(Yes, I know the stats, but it's worth a buck or two)
7 posted on 02/11/2015 2:54:39 PM PST by chud
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To: blam

I told my wife, and truly believe, winning that amount of money would ruin any normal person’s life. You’d never have a moment of peace unless you moved to a deserted island.
Between family and outsiders looking for something, it would be awful.


8 posted on 02/11/2015 2:55:07 PM PST by nascarnation (Impeach, convict, deport)
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To: blam

If they would divide up the $500 million into 500 separate $1,000,000 prizes...I’d buy tickets.


9 posted on 02/11/2015 2:55:35 PM PST by moovova
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To: chris37

If I win I’m going to buy myself a Congressman.


10 posted on 02/11/2015 2:55:35 PM PST by Zuse (I am disrupted! I am offended! I am insulted! I am outraged!)
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To: blam

So far I’m breaking even on lotteries. I don’t buy tickets, and I don’t win anything... don’t lose anything either.


11 posted on 02/11/2015 2:56:24 PM PST by Cementjungle
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To: blam

I’ve got my $4.00 in (one for the wife as well).

I’ve been actively perusing downsizing from my twin to a single. If we win this, well consider a jet with a crew!

Life is too short not to have fun with this!

In the end someone ALWAYS wins - why not a Freeper?

Jim could use a monthly donation from a Powerball winner.

Good luck Freepers!


12 posted on 02/11/2015 2:57:05 PM PST by BBB333 (Q: Which is grammatically correct? Joe Biden IS or Joe Biden ARE an idiot?)
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To: blam

I want to buy one ticket


13 posted on 02/11/2015 2:58:08 PM PST by GeronL
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To: blam

“probably”

Uh...that IS the point!

Somebody wins.

Who will tell that winner he should not have bought the ticket?.....probably....


14 posted on 02/11/2015 2:58:22 PM PST by G Larry (Obama may not be "THE" Antichrist, but he is certainly America's Antichrist.)
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To: nascarnation
You’d never have a moment of peace unless you moved to a deserted island.

On the bright side, you'd be able to afford one.

15 posted on 02/11/2015 2:58:42 PM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (See my home page for some of my answers to the left's talking points.)
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To: moovova

That would be interesting. I wonder why they don’t try that?


16 posted on 02/11/2015 2:59:26 PM PST by GeronL
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To: blam
The odds of winning the thing are reported to be one in 175 million. At $2 a throw, it became a decent bet at $350 million (assuming one winner, which is always the catch).

That said, your odds of winning are nearly the same whether you play or not. ;-)

17 posted on 02/11/2015 2:59:47 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: chud

yeah; I know the ‘if you don’t play, you can’t win’ mantra’.
The thing is you should buy tickets when the pot is smaller.
Odds improve greatly.
Also, relying on Providence, only one (1) ticket needs to be acquired to win.
jus’sayin...


18 posted on 02/11/2015 3:00:53 PM PST by aumrl (let's keep it real Conservatives)
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To: Tijeras_Slim
"I told him at 180 million to 1 the odds were infinitely better than getting rich working for him."

Ask him what the odds of winning are if you don't buy a ticket.
19 posted on 02/11/2015 3:02:12 PM PST by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: blam
From an economic perspective, buying a lottery ticket is a losing proposition. However, someone is going to win the pot eventually and what is being sold by the lottery commissions is a chance at that dream. If someone wants to invest a couple of bucks in that, well have at it.

Every form of gambling has to be a losing proposition for the player or the gaming industry wouldn't offer it. A casino or lottery cannot remain viable by having games with even odds. If someone figures out how to shorten the odds (like card counters in blackjack), the casinos will modify the rules. They are not running a charity. Someone is paying for all the lavishness of the casinos and the players should realize who that is.

20 posted on 02/11/2015 3:02:18 PM PST by CommerceComet (Ignore the GOP-e. Cruz to victory in 2016.)
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