The GOP's Electoral Cliff

Newsmax ^ | 2/18 | Dick Morris

[TangledUpInBlue]

No, I mean just based on his likeability in Wisconsin. If that state were flipped, it makes the rest of the math much more flexible.

[stephenjohnbanker]

America wants nothing to do with another Bush family member. You can’t buy your way around this.

[Disambiguator]

I think they actually had people to go talk to the registered voters in their homes.

[nascarnation]

That might work...although if they stopped at some folks here on FR, the fatality rate might spike on election day, LOL

[Oliviaforever]

Once Texas goes Democrat, the GOP is a dead party.

[SSS Two]

Romney got 206 electoral votes (carrying his closest state, North Carolina, by only 2.2 points). To add to this total, much less to bring it up to the 271 needed to win, Republicans must carry a number of states where they lost by five or more points in 2012.

Morris has his math wrong. A Republican need only pick up Florida (-0.9% in 2012), Ohio (-1.9%), Virginia (-3%) and Colorado (-4.7%) to win. A GOP candidate need not win any state where Romney lost by five or more points in 2012.

[TMA62]

I think that it depends an awful lot on the GOP candidate. Look at the recent candidates: Romney, McCain and Dole (’96). If you stand for nothing, you are giving no one to vote for you. That is the huge problem with the GOP-e: they stand for nothing and are not willing for fight for anything.....except for getting along with the left. That is why they loose. Now, if a conservative candidate is running (Walker, Cruz) that actually stands for something and fights the left and not against the base, I think that electoral map become favorable. Blue states become purple.

Lastly, the democrat party has changed A LOT in the last 10 years. I mean, it has changed radically on my many issues. It has doubled and even tripled down on things like gun control, immigration, no fossil feuls, gay rights, OPEN hositility towards Christianity and Israel. I think that there is a tipping point where the democrats will wake up the day after election day that they do not represent the majority of people in this country anymore.

I just question the stability of this red state/blue state political model. I don’t think it is very stabile in the long run.

[nascarnation]

Good observation, but see my (worrisome) post at #69.

[rigelkentaurus]

I believe it was the first RINO progressive, Teddy Roosevelt, who caused blacks to switch from R to D via the ‘Brownsville incident”. RINO progressives got us into this mess and we still cannot get rid of the progressive/commie wing of the R party.

[x]

Somehow, there were conservatives who refused to come out because Romney was not conservative enough, despite the fact not turning out would result in Obama’s reelection.

Was there a significant number of ideologically convinced conservatives who stayed home because Romney was insufficiently conservatives, compared, say, to voters who weren't ideologically much of anything who stayed home because they thought he was a rich guy who didn't know about or care about ordinary people?

Instinct tells me that the second group was much larger, though I haven't seen any data one way or the other. The proportion between the two groups could indicate just what kind of Republican could win those stay at homes.

[Sans-Culotte]

Well, on the plus side, if the Republicrats nominate Jebbie, I won’t care if the dem wins, so It’s not all bad news.

[TBP]

Look who they get to run against.

[tanknetter]

Here are the two articles I referenced earlier.

PJ Media article on Catalist. There are two big points of interest here - first is how pervasive data collection and sharing is between various Progressive activist groups/communities. Second, how Obama won by focusing enormously on turning out the far Left, which had a better ROI than going after the political middle.

Breitbart article on the failure of Orca, which describes how the Romney Campaign's botched voter-turnout system managed to "suppress its own vote."

[Disambiguator]

Maybe “Orca” should have been renamed “Albatross.”

[LongWayHome]

And.....NV & VA look to be gone. Only good news is that IA is trending GOP. Outside of that it’s brutal.

[SunkenCiv]

Unless they are able to improve their standing by 5 to 6 points in the key electoral states, they cannot win.

If enough states vote to peg their Electoral College votes to the national popular vote -- and one of those states is California -- it'll be difficult for the Demagogic Party to ever elect another POTUS.

[jjotto]

Ever see a list of states that have in the past voted for a conservative in greater numbers than voted for Romney in ‘12?

[sergeantdave]

“Hopefully we can flip a few because if not, the math is slanted in the Dems favor for some time to come. “

Wrong. The rat pukes could control the presidency, but if patriots control 20,000 of the 30,000 incorporated villages, towns and cities in America, the federal fascist government doesn’t have the manpower to stamp out 10,000 local brushfires. If you don’t understand this strategy, look up Committees of Safety.

[VRW Conspirator]

Once Texas goes Democrat, the GOP is a dead party.

And they know it. The Democrat party was overrun by Leftists. They are vicious and committed.

[tanknetter]

No kidding.

4 million missing votes is about 6% of those who did show up to vote for Romney. So it’s well within reason that they didn’t vote because they weren’t targeted for turnout.

On top of that, there’s the question of where they were mostly located. OH is mentioned specifically, but it’s safe to argue the possibility that every state Romney lost by less than 5-6% could have been carried. Which would have made him the President-elect.

Now one last thing. Recall that in the days immediately before the election Romney was acting like the winner. Which could have been considered bluster if it weren’t for the fact that Obama was acting depressed and as if he was going to lose. BOTH sides seemed shocked at the outcome.

So the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle do fit together in a way that supports a conclusion that both sides polling and turnout models predicted a Romney win, which failed to materialize due to a completely unforseen variable: whether Romney’s GOTV machine would actually work.