Posted on 04/07/2015 6:25:20 AM PDT by Kaslin
It's springtime, and the Census Bureau has released its population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas as of July 1, 2014. Initial analysis has focused on year-to-year movements or changes since the 2010 Census -- subjects worthy of attention.
But it's also interesting to take a longer look, to see where population has been booming over the 14 years since 2000, one-seventh of the 21st century. The headline here is that growth has been concentrated in relatively few large metropolitan areas.
Overall, there are 52 metro areas as currently defined by the government (except that I conflate Los Angeles-Riverside and San Francisco-San Jose, which seem to me to flow together) with populations over 1 million. Four have crossed that mark since 2000 -- Raleigh, Salt Lake City, Grand Rapids and Tucson.
Only a few have grown at rates similar to the population growth rate of the nation as a whole, 13 percent. The closest are Kansas City (13 percent) and Richmond (15 percent).
Most million-plus metro areas have grown either significantly more rapidly or significantly more sluggishly than the national average. Four Rust Belt areas have suffered population losses of 3 or 4 percent since 2000 -- Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo -- and Katrina-stricken New Orleans lost 5 percent.
The majority of the nation's population growth, 51 percent, has occurred in the 27 major metro areas, which have grown faster than the national average. They contained 22 percent of total population in 2000 and 26 percent in 2014.
This hasn't just been a movement from the Snow Belt to the Sun Belt. Population growth in California's two megalopolises, Los Angeles and San Francisco, has been below the national average. Immigrants are still moving in, but high housing prices resulting from environmental restrictions have been prompting Americans to move out.
San Diego, with the best weather of any major metro area, has grown just a bit faster than average (16 percent). Minneapolis, America's coldest major metro area, has actually grown a little faster (18 percent). Boston grew just about as fast as Los Angeles, and Baltimore and Grand Rapids just a bit faster. Southern locations don't assure growth: It was sluggish in Birmingham and Memphis (9 and 11 percent).
Even in the Rust Belt, Indianapolis and Columbus, state capitals with large universities and research industries, have grown far faster than the national average (29 and 24 percent). Two metro areas with similar assets, Raleigh and Austin, were the fastest-growing in the country (56 and 55 percent), followed by Las Vegas (52 percent), whose explosive growth dropped way off with the housing bust.
Air conditioning and civil rights legislation made the South more attractive in the two post-World War II generations. But now air conditioning is taken for granted and better winter clothing (plus snow blowers and electric garage door openers) has made cold winters more bearable. Non-meteorological factors seem to be sparking -- or holding down -- growth.
Consider Texas, with the nation's biggest population boom. Its two largest metro areas, Dallas and Houston, produced 10 percent of total U.S. population growth in the 21st century. Add in San Antonio and Austin, and you have 13 percent of national growth -- 4.9 million of 37.4 million.
Florida, which in 2014 passed New York as the nation's third most populous state, has four major metro areas -- Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville -- which account for another 6 percent of U.S. growth.
Texas and Florida have business-friendly public policies and no state income taxes -- undoubtedly contributors to growth. There's above average growth in other major metros in other no-income-tax states -- Nashville, Las Vegas, Seattle. There is vigorous growth also in Phoenix and Denver, Atlanta and Charlotte. But government also helped spur growth, in state capitals and in Washington (26 percent), the only fast-growing Northeastern metro.
Since the housing bust and financial crisis of 2006-09, both immigration and internal migration have slowed down. People hunker down in tough times. Outmigration from New York and Los Angeles has slowed. But a few metro areas have attracted domestic migrants more rapidly since 2010 than in the previous decade -- Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Seattle, Denver, Oklahoma City. Oil and tech are part of that story, but only part; there's a dynamism there lacking elsewhere.
The fast-growing metros are the future of America; at current rates they'll outnumber the slow-growing metros by 2030. And that growth is increasingly driven not by immigrants, but by Americans voting with their feet.
Most U.S. 21st Century Population Growth Came in Just 27 Metro Areas
Just think of them as giant hog troughs where the Free Stuff never stops flowing if you vote the right way.
Will the last person leaving the heartland please turn out the lights.
The gubbamint is hiding the real numbers in regards to illegals crossing the border and how many are here now.
We are a country of roughly 330 million folks. There are at least twenty million “illegals” in this country with thousands pouring over the border each month.
I hate to be so cynical, but the evidence speaks for itself. In the coming decades, voting demographics will favor the socialist/communist. Red states will begin turning purple, then blue.
National debt will continue to rise. Stock market is likely to correct and millions of middle class folks will wake up to see another trillion dollar evaporation of their wealth.
The evidence is there. Sounds so doom and gloom, but cyclical trends in the markets bare out this point.
Our newly elected congress remains largely silent, impotent to stop the run away train.
Hey, while on my mind. Remember the stories a few weeks back with regards to the debt ceiling being reached?
Why has that story, which always dominates the headlines....mysteriously not there?
Dems pander to the metros of the inner cities like Chicago, Detroit, NYC etc.
Nice to see some metro growth in Red states.
“Consider Texas, with the nation’s biggest population boom. Its two largest metro areas, Dallas and Houston, produced 10 percent of total U.S. population growth in the 21st century. Add in San Antonio and Austin, and you have 13 percent of national growth — 4.9 million of 37.4 million.”
Not that it was ever a secret but now we know why Texas is so very important! Texas shall remain Red!
Yes, Metro areas had the biggest growth. Well DUH. That is where the jobs are
What percent of that growth is ‘red’ vs ‘blue?’
Agenda 21.
My wife was born in the small country town of Plano, TX back in the 1950s. way out in the country, a small isolated town with few people!
Today, it has been swallowed up by the DFW metroplex. Same for McKinney.
The evidence is there. Sounds so doom and gloom, but cyclical trends in the markets bare out this point...
Do you have a reference for these cyclical trends?
My experience has been that during the course of my lifetime the stock market has richly rewarded those who look to the future, and has punished those stuck in the past.
In general, those who predict gloom and doom for stocks are the ones who are either unsuccessful in investing or who have no investments at all.
...The gubbamint is hiding the real numbers in regards to illegals crossing the border and how many are here now...
I do not see this as the disaster many others do. People are voting with their feet, taking enormous chances and moving to the US because they see more opportunity here than where they came from. Most want to work and better themselves. What is the real difference between these immigrants and the earlier waves that propelled the US to its position of power in the world?
We need these people. Social Security is based on the premise of many workers for each retiree. The people currently in the US have not increased our numbers at anywhere near the rate necessary.
On a personal basis, I see this trend and look for ways to prosper from it, rather than ways to fight it...
So, you are for illegal immigration?
We have a severe housing shortage here in LA.
It is cheaper to buy a home in LA than rent ... except, the rates to buy are astronomical! So, you have to rent, but there is nothing out there.
The Crash of 2000
From September 2000 to January 2, 2001, the NASDAQ dropped 45.9%. A total of 8 trillion dollars of wealth was lost in the crash of 2000.
Causes of the Stock Market Crash:
1.Corporate Corruption.
2.Overvalued Stocks.
3.Daytraders and Momentum Investors.
4.Conflict of Interest between Research Firm Analysts and Investment Bankers.
On October 19, 1987, the stock market crashed. The Dow dropped 508 points or 22.6% in a single trading day. This was a drop of 36.7% from its high on August 25, 1987.
During this crash, 1/2 trillion dollars of wealth were erased.
Causes of the Stock Market Crash:
1.No Liquidity.
2.Overvalued Stocks;
3.Program Trading and the Use of Derivative Securities Software.
On October 24 (”Black Thursday”), the market lost 11 percent of its value at the opening bell on very heavy trading.In total, 14 billion dollars of wealth were lost during the market crash.
•U.S. homeowners lost a cumulative $3.3 trillion in home equity during 2008, according to a report from Zillow. (MortgageWire.)
•One in six homeowners is now underwater on their mortgage.
•The stock market erased $6.9 trillion in shareholder wealth in 2008.
Causes of the Crash:
1.Overvalued Stocks.
2.Low Margin Requirements.
3.Interest Rate Hikes. The Fed aggressively raised interest rates on broker loans;
4.Poor Banking Structures.
The primary issue with the stock market today as it pertains to individual investors is institutional / computerized trading. Small time investors don't stand a chance when the bottom begins to fallout.
Furthermore and touching on the national debt, inflation, tax increases, passed on cost of government regulation and devaluation of the dollar. These scenarios are simply a stealth tax on working class folks, decreasing net worth over a period of time. Although we find ourselves in a deflationary cycle currently. This could reverse course rather sharply given geopolitical/domestic issues such as war, increase poverty/increased government spending and job loss due to downturns in economic activity.
Sure, some are on top of their game, micromanaging portfolios. For the average working class, the evaporation in wealth typically comes through 401k and or home value.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/2/america-lost-102-trillion-of-wealth-in-2008#ixzz3WeBXDQko
http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/2/america-lost-102-trillion-of-wealth-in-2008
We are now a few months into 2015. Seven years since the last market correction. Markets have been driven upward due to ultra-low interest rates and trillion of liquidity pumped into the markets.
Markets have remained relatively high even when the not so Federal Reserve began easing it's liquidity into the markets primarily by European Central Banks latest announcement of their form of quantitative easing.
Folks should be very cautious in the months ahead.
I am never leaving the heartland!! :)
I am in favor of legal immigration.
The problem we have is that we have theoretically closed our borders, while in fact leaving them wide open. And, we are selectively choosing the worst possible people to offer amnesty.
People will pay ~$2000 to be smuggled into the US to work in horrible conditions. If we closed the border and then sold green cards for $3000 we would be far ahead of the game and so would the people who came.
The times between the major "reversions" do not support the concept of cycles with a regular time period. Economics is a much more complex field than most people think.
Even in introductory college courses, the "no math" or "low math" version is taught. The reality is that pretty advanced calculus is required for serious understanding of economic principles.
I have never gone wrong guiding my personal portfolio on the prediction that there will be inflation. Under Obama, there is going to be even more inflation than previously. "Quantitative easing" is just another way to say we are running the printing presses at full speed.
Quality stocks, and real brick-and-mortar real estate both weather inflation quite well.
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