Largely depends if the GOP puts up a credible candidate and if Donna Edwards takes the nomination (if she is the lone Black candidate with other Whites, there’s almost no way she could lose the primary).
As I’ve said, even in White Dem areas, they’re not necessarily keen on Black candidates from exclusively Black constituencies whose issues are just as exclusively racial in nature. It was why I had a very strong feeling that Larry Hogan, Jr. would prevail for MD Governor, even against the sitting Lt Gov.
Had Zero faced a substantial candidate in Jack Ryan (minus the exposed sex scandal), I think he’d have had a difficult time winning the Senate race in IL. He lucked out by facing Alan Keyes, who was the only one who didn’t seem to realize he was being used. Even Mike Ditka would’ve blown Zero to pieces (and you may recall I was demanding he be drafted here back in ‘04).
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend may run, split the White vote in the rat primary.