Bad news for Jeb: Walker surging in New Hampshire

Hot Air ^ | April 14, 2015 | Noah Rothman

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Two weeks ago, I noticed that national polling and noted that the media-fueled boomlet for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker might be fading. If that’s true, it’s a phenomenon that is not apparent in a recent poll of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.

The results of a new NH1 survey conducted by the Republican firm Reach Communications from April 8 – 9 suggests that Walker’s appeal to the Republican electorate in this critical Northeaster state continues to grow. The survey found Walker leading with almost 23 percent of the vote, well outside the survey’s 3.0 percent margin of error. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tails Walker with just over 16 percent support followed closely by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) who secures the support of 15 percent of the New Hampshire GOP primary electorate.

For all the hype surrounding the campaigns of Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), they have not captured the imaginations of the Granite State’s voters. This poll found that just 9 percent of New Hampshire’s likely GOP voters back Cruz. Only 7 percent told Reach pollsters that they were planned to back Rubio in 2016.

Before Team Walker starts celebrating, the caveats associated with this poll abound.

“Since the poll was conducted using automated technology – and there are only so many buttons on a touch-tone phone – the ballot test included only those 11 candidates,” Politico reported. “In the last NH1 poll conducted in early February, Walker led Bush by 7 points.”

If this survey and others that show Walker gaining or surpassing Bush in support among New Hampshire’s likely GOP primary voters are accurate, it will present the former Florida governor with a daunting challenge. Unlikely to emerge from Iowa with a win, Bush will need to secure a victory in the Granite State in order to prevent his supporters jumping ship.

The candidate who wins in New Hampshire will head into the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary in the pole position. If Bush is counting on Florida to rescue his presidential campaign at that point, he is likely to find that he will be as successful in that endeavor as was Rudy Giuliani.

Of course, this assumes that Walker and Bush both run for the presidency, and neither is a declared candidate as of yet. Wink.

[Mouton]

Jeb’s loss is the Country’s gain.

[1010RD]

Bush and Paul have a ton of name recognition. That makes Walker all the stronger a candidate.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

It’s Walker and Bush in tightening S.C. race, new in-state poll finds this morning

[Liz]

Nice putdown.

[Din Maker]

Much more recent???? 5 Weeks more recent. The only two things the article, that you posted to me, shows are that my, and your, articles were written by 2 different Red State Contributors and that Scott Walker is falling in the Power Rankings. Your article does not refute the facts expressed in the article linked to you by myself. I think Scott Walker is a good man but he needs to come to grips with what he believes and stand by his convictions. He’s not ready for Prime Time.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

He’s not ready for Prime Time.

We shall see.

btw - The "diary" article you posted was written by someone who doesn't like Walker - while the Power Projection link I provided, covers all the candidates and their "rankings are chosen by a panel of current and former RedState contributors" - so it is most likely more broad-based and reliable.

[Liz]

Jeb is fading fast. Oh well, can always go back to his day job---giving Hillary awards.

Jeb Bush honors Hillary on eve of Benghazi 1st year anniversary.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) will honor former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with this year’s Liberty Medal from the National Constitution Center.

The award will be presented to Clinton on September 10th, the eve of the first anniversary of the terrorist attack on the United States mission in Benghazi that killed four American.

The Christian Science Monitor reports that Bush, a potential GOP contender in the 2016 presidential race, is chairman of the board of trustees of the National Constitution Center located in Philadelphia.

“Former Secretary Clinton has dedicated her life to serving and engaging people across the world in democracy,” Bush said in a statement. “These efforts as a citizen, an activist, and a leader have earned Secretary Clinton this year’s Defender of Liberty Medal.”

==============================================

Bush’s decision to honor Clinton, who is considered by some to be a likely Democrat candidate for president in 2016, was condemned by the Independence Hall Tea Party Association of Philadelphia. According to the Christian Science Monitor, the organization released its own statement Monday, referring to the event as “extremely distressing,” and offering, instead, an opportunity for another Liberty Medal recipient.

According to the statement: As all of you undoubtedly know, much of the blame for the Obama Administration’s failure to contain the Benghazi attack and the scandalous handling of its aftermath, can be traced directly to Ms. Clinton.

Indeed, a Congressional investigation regarding Ms. Clinton’s role in the cover-up of the Administration’s failure is still ongoing.

=====================================================

A newly formed organization, the Independence Hall Foundation, will hold a “What Difference Does It Make” press conference on Independence Mall, September 10, 4 PM, to denounce the selection of Ms. Clinton as the 2013 Liberty Medal recipient and to offer an alternative award (details below). During the conference, the Foundation will name its choice of recipient(s) for the 2013 Defender of Liberty Medal. Dom Giordano will headline the presser and we certainly hope you will consider joining us. (SOURCE: BREITBART.COM 9/9/13)

[Cincinatus' Wife]

“Jeb is fading fast. Oh well, can always go back to his day job-—giving Hillary awards.”

bttt!

[Jim Noble]

New Hampshire is not Bush Country.

[Liz]

IS THE "INEVITABLE, UNTOUCHABLE" HILLARY ANOTHER ERIC CANTOR IN THE MAKING?

The massively-funded Hillary is on the road, disguised as a "regular" American....despite a trail of criminal activities that would make organized crime blush.

STROLL DOWN MEMORY LANE Then-Repub Majority Leader, Eric Cantor (Va), was considered untouchable and inevitable.

<><> Cantor had tons of money---spent 26X times his opponent's $100K.

<><> Cantor consistently polled an astounding 34 points ahead of his unknown opponent.

<><> Cantor was considered "inevitable" and "untouchable".

<><> Cantor had no ethics problems.

<><> Cantor sucked-up to an anti-tea party group.

<><> Cantor sucked up to the latino vote.

<><> Cantor showboated his leadership---was deeply into (gag) "diversity."

=============================================

BY CONTRAST HIS OPPONENT Brat:

<><> ran as Cantor's TERM LIMIT

<><> Brat roundly opposed, and was vociferous against amnesty,.

<><> Brat ran as a staunch conservative (now in Congress he has a conservative rating 100%.)

<><> On elections day, Brat got 18,000 more Repub out to the polls than the previous election that elected Cantor.

================================================

CANTOR IN DEFEAT----DUMBFOUNDED:

[Tennessean4Bush]

To me, Walker has always come across as part of the wishy-washy, mushy-middle, flip-flopping crowd.

Baloney. Tout your candidate, expound on his virtues, but don't throw a fellow conservative under the bus who has fought harder than any republican in my lifetime - and with more success - against the liberal leviathan.

[stars & stripes forever]

[just 9 percent of New Hampshire’s likely GOP voters back Cruz]

The numbers are rising despite the Cruz news blackout by the MSM.

[who knows what evil?]

Cruz will be here in soviet Red Hampshire next Monday to speak to a coalition of ‘gun groups’...it will be interesting to see how that is handled by the local media.

[Farmer Dean]

“Yeah,Obama would make a great president”

The stupidest words ever uttered by a candidate.

[DaveA37]

“. George H.W. Bush.......under the guise of not tarnishing the office of the presidency.”...

He waited for Clinton and Odumbo to do just that and they came through like champions on that assignment.

[T. P. Pole]

Classy as always.

[Redleg Duke]

Hey, why don't you leave New Hampshire and help lower the liberal population?

If you move back to Mass, you will raise the average IQ of both states!

[arthurus]

Jeb does not need any of the early primaries. The early ones are for cutting down the highest risers among the conservative candidates. Jeb will get serious in the later primaries after his surfeit of smear money has successfully rendered nonviable each of the conservatives in turn. For a conservative to be in the running the conservative field needs to narrow to one or, at most, two candidates before the second set of primaries.

[conservativejoy]

I had my eyes opened yesterday by an article at Red State, “Twelve Reasons Not to Vote for Scott Walker”. He was my second choice until I read his record and what he is currently doing as governor. We need to remain open minded and not get so far into hero worship that we refuse to consider hard facts. As much as I love Ted Cruz, if I read an expose like this one about Walker, that would end my support of him.

[Kenny]

Based on his Wisconsin track record, Walker is hardly a “loser”. OK, so he’s not your guy, but no need to be deliberately dishonest about a fellow republican.

Thank you. I'm hoping the conservatives don't turn on one another again. I'd love to see all these candidates praise the others and stand shoulder-to-shoulder against Democrats. But alas, the plants are out there and we'll have to watch global bashing of our candidates, much from the inside.