Posted on 04/26/2015 7:06:29 PM PDT by ckilmer
Your point that lithium batteries have their draw backs is well taken and I agree. However, if your larger point is that lithium batteries —or some newer version of batteries— are not going to be successful—then I disagree. As long as tesla’s share price remains high —then what you have is an industry consensus opinion that tesla is going to succeed. This large herd may be wrong. The herd is sometimes wrong. But they also contain the opinion of the smartest guys in the biz.
So imho its riskier to bet against them than to bet with them—if you’re into speculation.
the consequence of tesla’s success is that in 5-7 years electric cars will take a small bite out of demand for gasoline. that bite will get bigger. and eventually collapse the price of oil.
the middle east will be defunded.
My e. Engineer friend says Teslas are powered by the exact same 18650 batteries that I use in my flashlight, just more.
Sorry, I was unclear,my bad. My point is the analysis is just as wrong as those predicting the end of oil by the year 2000. If the lithium battery becomes too expensive, they will just switch to aluminum based or another alternative. I believe they will switch to something else anyway but the decision will be made on price/performance and it appears aluminum will have several advantages...
Don’t buy lithium stock yet, based on Tesla’s long term need. And there are some interesting H2 options that have some pretty odd advantages too.
Sell on greed, buy on fear. This was a greed article.
DK
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