Posted on 05/07/2015 1:16:23 PM PDT by Reno89519
Let's be honest with ourselves for a second: This is Hillary Clinton's election to lose.
On Nov. 8, 2016, Clinton will start — start — with a minimum 247 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. If you give her Colorado and Virginia — which many political strategists would, given the Hispanic population in one and the rising influence of the northern-centered population in the other — she'll start with 269. That means Clinton doesn't need Ohio or Florida. She just needs one small state like Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire to put her over the edge. And because she's got a boatload of money and no viable primary challenger, she'll have plenty of time and resources to lock up at least one of those states.
In order to shift the map, the Republican nominee would have to find a way to win Colorado and/or Virginia. That means winning over Hispanics, which will be a difficult task for a nominee who has spent a months-long primary trying to win over the conservative grass roots. It also means winning over enough members of Virginia's white working class to counter the more populated liberal-urban centers in the north. Not impossible, of course, but hard.
Unless ... unless one of two things happens: 1. The Republicans build an Obama 2008-level narrative around their nominee, significantly broadening their candidate's appeal to independents and Democrats. 2. Some legitimate controversy, historic stumble, unconscionable error or jaw-dropping gaffe completely reorients the way voters view Hillary Clinton.
As of now, the first option seems unlikely. Republicans have not produced a candidate who looks poised to pull off a "hope and change"-style campaign, despite Marco Rubio's attempt to brand himself as the candidate for a "new American century." The second option would require a controversy or error so major — and legitimate — that it didn't go away. Such a controversy would have to be far bigger than a secret email account or questionable Clinton Foundation donations. The inconsequence of those stories can be seen in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, which found that "Americans now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and more see her as a strong leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics."
The conventional wisdom among Clinton's supporters is that Clinton is invincible, because she has already weathered all the storms of media scrutiny. She has been in the public eye for 25 years and endured countless controversies, from Whitewater to Lewinsky to Benghazi. The book has been thrown at her, and the book lost.
This argument overlooks two important factors: First, the national media have never been more primed to take down Hillary Clinton (and, by the same token, elevate a Republican candidate). Even before she announced her presidential bid, The New York Times alone had published more than 40 articles related to her private email account, spurring other stories across the national print, digital and television media. Since announcing her bid, the national media have spent the bulk of their time investigating potential lines of influence between Clinton Foundation donations/speaking fees and Clinton's actions as secretary of state. The Times, The Washington Post and others even struck deals for early access to anti-Clinton research.
Second, the media environment is radically different from the 1990s or even the 2000s. The power and volume of social media means that controversies can be both disseminated and elevated to unprecedented levels. In today's media environment, nothing with even a whiff of gunpowder comes across the transom without blowing up, because blowing stuff up is what the media do. Or, as Daniel Henninger notes in today's Wall Street Journal, the "electronic elements have reached critical mass ... [and] the new political media that will drive the 2016 presidential contest are like the surface of the oceans — huge, always moving, unpredictable and potentially destructive."
The rest, as they say, is noise. The media can cover every minor process development and chase Hillary to every Chipotle, but without an unforeseen controversy of truly epic proportions and/or a transformational Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton will waltz to the nomination and enter Election Day with a significant advantage over her challenger.
Hillary will probably win. She, more than anyone else running, represents what this country has become, and where it is going.
In the 2000 election, even after 8 years of the impeached pervert, a majority of those who could be bothered to get off their asses and vote for president chose to vote for a communist.
Barry Hussein was elected TWICE by a majority of those who could be bothered to get off their asses and vote.
Wow. You’d think dems took the house and senate last year if you go by this article.
The pro-Hitlery media, also, sucks at the teat of their goddess. That helps her tremendously.
This article is a class A exhibit.
In "country" logic terms, that's called shucking it down to the cob. I think you're right on point and the Pubbie candidate that understands that earliest will be able to counter it best. I think Cruz has already figured that out and struck early blows.
“It’s the media’s election, and they don’t intend to lose.”
What you said.
For the record:
1) I support Ted Cruz for President.
2) Hillary is thoroughly beatable ... but only by a conservative/constitutionalist. One who actually believes and can easily, comfortably, convincingly articulate conservative and constitutional thought and policies.
3) A squish like Jeb Bush WILL LOSE. Squishy moderate Republicans are not electable, as President Romney can assure you.
Not all of those states are locks for Hillary.
More here.
al political BS aside ; if ANY American can put aside and not consider how Hillary LIED to the faces of the relatives of those who were killed in Benghazi , intentionally and knowingly lied , then that American voter should NOT have the right to vote . F them . It’s not their right to choose to apply a ‘willing suspension of disbelief’. Allowing vast numbers of stupid uninformed people is killing our country . And we are allowing it . Is our country really so little that we continue to tolerate the intolerable ?
Democrats start with that every election. By the time a Republican wins their first state, the Democrat already has over 200 electoral votes.
Why is this any different than last time? And Obama won Virginia and Florida last election. Everything will be the same and it will come down to how many votes are stolen in Cuyohuga County....
What the rats are counting on is the candidate is anyone but Walker or Cruz. You get Cruz, all those hispanic “legal” votes go bye bye. And if you get Walker, you have a chance of picking up Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
AMEN!!
Reagan did not give up, neither should we.
Regarding the hispanics, do not assume all are automatic lefty voters. Many, just like past European immigrants, are looking for a better future for themselves and their families. They need to be educated in Conservatism and its ideals. Yes, many are are illegal yet if they are to vote because of the left’s disregard for the law, we might as well make a run for them. Not with the short term lived Santa Claus offers like the left does but with lifelong and generational ideals of freedom and liberty brought on by Conservative ideals.
Regards.
The same bunch of low info Democrat voters who twice elected a homosexual Kenyan Muslim to the Presidency will faithfully turn out for Hillary, and the same bunch of highly informed Republican voters who said, “Ewwww, I’m not voting for some damn Mormon,” and stayed home on election day will say, “Ewwww, I’m not voting for some damn Mexican/hillbilly/Cuban/Canadian/etc.,” and will stay home on election day 2016.
As has been said by wiser men than I could ever hope to be, “In a Democracy, a people will have the government they deserve.”
The electoral math is simply daunting and there is no argument against that condition.
As has been said plenty of times, the GOP has to run the table to win. To think that a thoroughly lackluster and zero-appeal candidate like Jeb Bush, not even possessing the miniscule personal appeal of McCain or Romney begs the question, does the GOP actually want to guarantee a Hillary win? Between Rove, McConnell, and Linda, enough doubt and election indifference can certainly be sown among potential GOP voters.
“Sobering” is the least I would call it.
Apparently the author knows more than the voters in this country. I have no doubt there will be criminal issues related to the election as the demodumies continue on their merry way of rigging elections. There is still a long way to go before Nov. 2016 and a whole lot can happen before then.
The Presidency does not matter. Special interest groups control Washington.
Yes, the media are the enemy, and the GOP candidate has to act like he knows that. There’s no sense trying to get them to treat him fairly, so the only option is to declare war on them and hope that voters catch the vision.
You're right. Committed liberals don't like her. Mainstream democrats don't like her. Left-leaning moderates don't like her.
But all of the above will vote for her! Their reasoning will go something like this: I don't like Hillary, but I will vote for her because the GOP candidate is worse/I liked Bill Clinton (it will be one of those two reasons).
It's going to be a landslide win for Republicans if we have a nominee like Cruz who will obliterate the “Obama coalition” that Democrats mistakenly believe in the new normal.
Every candidate is unique, and will attract and/or repel completely different voters from his predecessor regardless of whether they have the same letter after their name on the ballot.
Okay, but look what our illustrious Senate and House leadership did with that victory? Republicans have a knack for losing. As a former Northern Virginia resident, it is very much like the Redskins, play great up until the end and then throw it away.
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