Posted on 05/19/2015 11:06:32 AM PDT by Zhang Fei
You think South Korea could absorb North Korea that easily?
South Korea isn’t West Germany, and North Korea is a nightmare compared to East Germany’s development.
Part of the reason China and Seoul aren’t eager for the regime to collapse is because millions of uneducated, starved peasants will flood into their countries.
Personally, I think North Korea would need a lot of foreign humanitarian aid.
Norks launch a Nuke—even if they could knock out our electrical grid—Our subs at sea would fire all the rockets they have—that would be the END of North Korea. If Obama didn’t order it—the people would pull him from the thrown and replace him with another—General Petrauis? Sarah Palin? Even Mittens—all would counter attack.
The PRC *absolutely* prefers a hobbled DPRK as compared with a strong and re-unified single Korea physically abutting the Chinese border.
Why, many ask, does SK continue to cough up dough, rice, and costly capital, keeping DPRK limping along..?
Cuz SK examined the costs of German re-unification and were shocked —the price tag was sky high. But high as that was, they estimated that SK/DPRK integration would cost FOUR TIMES as high..!
I like SK, but the cynical view of the SK leadership is that paying this periodic blood money to the kooky Norks is CHEAP compared to the costs of re-unification.
They can trundle out on TV all the crying Korean families, separated by the border, loudly longing to be one again, and it doesn’t mean a thing, really:
The SK leadership has decided it’s just cheaper and easier having those bark-soup sipping kooks spouting off about Dear Leader hitting holes-in-one every other stroke and hanging out with Dennis Rodman than paying to unwash the propaganda-addled brains of their “northern brothers”.
As long as DPRK limps along juuuuust well enough that there’s no refugee crush on China’s border, well China, too, is okay with kicking into the kook kitty every now and then to keep their nostrils one nanometer above the flood.
But JUST IN CASE things go south in Kookville and the regime starts to violently dissolve, China does have an entire China-friendly substitute NK cabinet waiting on standby, ready to take over.
I’m serious.
You.....are saying a collapse of the NK regime would not occasion an IMMENSE increase in DPRK refugees, fleeing into China..?
That is the very first time I have ever heard that.
You also think the PRC would not feel threatened in, say, 25 years after the two Koreas had become one and lay directly to her south..?
You are saying this...?
This would be my very first time reading that.
Why would they run to China when they can go south and be with people who speak their language? That would be like the East Germans fleeing into Poland rather than turning to their West German brethren back in '89.
You also think the PRC would not feel threatened in, say, 25 years after the two Koreas had become one and lay directly to her south..?
My knowledge of Korean history is nowhere near that of Japanese history, but I can't remember a time when Korea ever attempted to invade China--and if nothing else, the Koreans, even if they were thinking about it, would have learned from the Japanese experience in WWII that China is just as hard to conquer from the east as, say, Russia is from the west.
People who trade with each other generally aren't desiring to shoot at each other, and China has about 2,000 years of experience trading with the Koreans. If anything, the one country that would hate to see the DRPK go would be Japan, because with a peaceful and prosperous mainland there would be no way Japan could establish economic hegemony, much less political hegemony.
I think they have very different reasons for fearing NK's collapse. Education isn't all that big a deal - these are pretty sharp people, who will improve tremendously with proper nutrition and instruction. NK is not a garden variety basket case country - notice that Zimbabwe doesn't have working nukes or ICBM's, and has to import its weaponry. For China, NK's fall will remove a buffer state, and bring US troops all the way to the Yalu river - something they fought a war in 1950 to prevent. For SK, NK's fall could bring about a Chinese intervention and an attempt to annex North Korea - which would bring about war with China and the Chinese confiscation of SK's plants in China as well as an interruption in its lucrative trade with China.
The backlash against Japan in the postwar era has distorted Korean views about Japan, but the principal threat to Korean independence for most of Korea's history has been China rather than Japan. If it weren't for Japan's annexation of Korea in 1895, Korea would probably be a Chinese province today.
Thing is, that the Chinese view Korea as a tributary state, a country they have a kind of ambiguous claim to over-lordship, in exchange, they do business and protect the country from foreign invasion. So predictably, they would feel obligated to protect Korea at all costs.
As for the collapse of Kim Jong-Un and the rest of his dynasty, it’s iffy since they view him as a client king, in position by the amused tolerance of China, with the occasional push-back if Kim gets too aggressive. Now if the Japanese would attack NK, then of course, the Chinese might believe they are honor bound to defend NK, since NK is viewed as part of a whole Korea that would require their protection.
Throw in the fact that the Chinese hate the Japanese and then it would be a perfect diplomatic mixture for another world war.
China's current provinces were tributary states before they were incorporated into the empire. This kind of thing wasn't unique to China - the Romans had something similar, but the Chinese empire remains in control of these provinces, whereas the former Roman provinces are now over a dozen independent countries. The average Chinese *knows* that if the West hadn't ventured into the Orient, Mongolia, Burma, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Korea would all be Chinese provinces today. And perhaps even all of Southeast Asia, in an arc running through the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia through Thailand. IMO, Chinese irredentism over the the South China Sea is just the tip of the iceberg.
Another way of putting it - Chinese irredentism is like an onion - peel away one layer, and there’s another one just below it.
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