Posted on 06/13/2015 6:27:29 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
On the eve of Bush’s official campaign launch, Republicans are confident he can defeat the Democratic front-runner. But New Hampshire is dicey for him and Iowa is looking like a lost cause.
Despite a spell of rough headlines and a recent campaign shake-up, 70 percent of early-state Republicans think Jeb Bush could win their state in a general election contest against Hillary Clinton. But they’re not confident he‘ll make it out of the primary.
That’s the assessment of this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our bipartisan survey of top operatives, activists and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire.
On the eve of Bush’s expected presidential announcement Monday, only 32 percent of Iowa Republicans said he could win there if the caucuses were held today. His numbers were much stronger in New Hampshire — 86 percent of both Republicans and Democrats said he would win the primary as of now — yet many caution that his frontrunner status there is precarious.
“He could win but so could several other candidates,” said one New Hampshire Republican who — like all 61 respondents this week — completed the questionnaire anonymously in order to speak candidly. “It’s going to be a horse race and Bush is no American Pharoah right now.”
“Operative word is ‘could,’” added another Granite State Republican, speaking of the former Florida governor’s ability to win the New Hampshire primary. “He has all the advantages he brought to the race — he has performed very well in visits here and his staff is strong — but R voters are liking a race with no frontrunner. That will change but for now for R voters it is like Black Friday for shopping deals.”
Iowa, with its socially conservative GOP base, has never been considered a natural fit for Bush and his brand of establishment conservatism. His travel schedule to the state reflects that: Bush has visited just twice in 2015, though he plans to return next week.
Some Hawkeye State Republicans doubt it will make a difference.
“Not a chance,” said one Iowa Republican aligned with another candidate, when asked whether Bush could win the caucuses today. “He has shown little regard for Iowa or for what Iowans are looking for. Just not going to do well here unless he changes his game.”
But several noted that Bush doesn’t need to win Iowa — he just needs to avoid an embarrassing finish.
“Believe it or not, he could [effectively win], because everyone forgets what a win is in the Iowa Caucuses,” an uncommitted Iowa Republican argued. “A win is a slot in top three — and arguably the top prize is not the first place finish, but the one in the top three that exceeded expectations the most. Bush is in a tight grouping behind [Scott] Walker. If he was to finish in the top three — a very doable task — it would turn heads. And likely help a great deal in New Hampshire. Remember, too, that New Hampshire never votes for the top finishing Republican in Iowa. Who is on top in New Hampshire? Bush. Pretty early to write him off.”
As for general election match-ups in Iowa and New Hampshire — smaller states, but swing states nonetheless — 70 percent of Republicans said Bush could beat Clinton and just 30 percent said he couldn’t; those numbers were exactly reversed among early-state Democrats.
“NH is a swing state, and not any Republican can carry it. Several current candidates cannot but Bush could,” a New Hampshire Republican said.
“Jeb Bush enjoys campaigning; Hillary Clinton endures campaigning,” an Iowa Republican said. “That difference is becoming more clear by the week.”
But, argued a New Hampshire Republican who thinks Bush would lose to Clinton, “Bush’s primary flaw in attempting to attract independent women against Clinton is that he does not have an issue that would cause this critical demographic to break away from their natural inclination to support Clinton.”
On the other side of the aisle, more than two-thirds of Democrats said Clinton would beat Bush in their states.
“The GOP will hype their chances here, but ultimately this state (both sides of the aisle) has had a checkered history with the Bush family, and Hillary is too strong,” a Granite State Democrat said.
“Silent ‘time for a woman’ Republican women outnumber silent sexist Democratic men,” said an Iowa Democrat.
Republicans who didn’t see Bush beating Clinton — and Democrats who could envision Clinton losing to Bush — largely pointed to concerns about low turnout in another Bush-Clinton match-up, citing fatigue with both families.
The responses come as Bush nears the end of a nearly week-long European tour and the beginning of his official campaign on Monday. While his fundraising juggernaut continues to roll on, his standing has suffered in the run-up to his campaign launch — his struggles to articulate his position on the U.S. decision to invade Iraq alarmed donors and supporters who expected more from such a mature and polished officeholder — and for weeks Marco Rubio has sucked up a lot of Bush’s oxygen.
In the most recent POLITICO Caucus survey, 29 of the 61 respondents called the Florida senator the biggest threat to Bush (though some named Rubio and another candidate, like Scott Walker).
Still, Caucus insiders brushed aside the rough stretch — especially news about a staff shuffle — saying it doesn’t resonate outside the Beltway. The focus for Bush and his reconfigured team now, they said, needs to be on spending time in the early states.
“They need to come up with an early state strategy,” an Iowa Republican said. “It’s clear their strategy to raise as much money as possible to ward off opponents and freeze the field didn’t work. Now they need to do what it takes to actually win and that’s meet voters.”
Here are three other takeaways from this week’s POLITICO Caucus:
Jeb’s announcement day is an opportunity to break away from the Bush brand
Bush has been an all-but-declared candidate for months, but when he makes it official on Monday, he should use the chance to distinguish himself from the family name, insiders say.
“Show he’s his own man, different from his father and brother,” said one New Hampshire Republican.
“Show those who don’t know him that he is a thoughtful, detail-oriented, reform-minded governor with a record of remarkable accomplishment, not the legacy politico his detractors portray him as,” added another.
As with Clinton’s first major rally, which will happen on Saturday, insiders said Bush’s announcement is a time to spell out his campaign rationale, and to make clear he’s not running out of a sense of entitlement.
“Show that he really wants this, that it’s not a family destiny endeavor,” urged an Iowa Republican.
Bush has a clear strength — and an obvious weakness
Caucus insiders, from both states and on both sides of the aisle, were in agreement on Bush’s biggest political asset — and his biggest challenge. For most respondents, fundraising was cited as Bush’s strongest attribute of the options given. About 7o percent of Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans, as well as New Hampshire Democrats, pointed to his ability to raise money as his biggest strength. Forty percent of Iowa Democrats said the same.
Other options included his electability, his ability to broaden the base and his executive experience. About a quarter of both Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats named electability as his biggest strength.
“If Jeb Bush can make it out of the primary, he’s going to be a very tough general election candidate,” an Iowa Democrat said. “He’s not going to appeal to hardcore Democrats, but there are plenty of moderate Democrats in Iowa and elsewhere who are not threatened by the idea of a Jeb Bush presidency like they are about a Scott Walker or Ted Cruz presidency.”
As for weaknesses, more than half of respondents in each category pointed to “Bush fatigue.” Seventy percent of Iowa Republicans called that Bush’s biggest problem, while more than half of Iowa Democrats and New Hampshire respondents overall said the same. His next biggest flaw, according to respondents from all of the blocs represented, is that he turns off the conservative base. Roughly a quarter of New Hampshire Republicans and Iowa Democrats offered that answer; 20 percent of Iowa Republicans and 26 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said the same.
“The national network he and his family have built are indeed impressive. It will have to wait to be seen if $100 million can inoculate him from the weaknesses of his campaign,” an Iowa Republican said.
There’s no Republican groundswell for John Kasich
The Ohio governor continues to signal serious interest in a presidential bid, swiping at Bush and hiring prominent GOP staffers for his political team. But 61 percent of Republican POLITICO Caucus insiders say there’s no opening for him.
“Who’s looking for a curmudgeonly moderate to support?” said one Iowa Republican.
Another, more diplomatically, added, “Plenty of others to choose from already — don’t need another.”
Nearly 70 percent of Iowa Republicans said there was no space for Kasich.
Kasich fared better overall in New Hampshire, where Republicans were evenly divided over where there is appetite for his potential candidacy.
“For Republicans looking for a moderate to liberal Republican, John Kasich is a strong option,” a Granite State Republican said. “That probably is part of the Jeb Bush base as well.”
But several said that the more moderate conservative lane in which he would run is already too crowded, and he would be late to the game.
“Big field and he cannot differentiate himself adequately to make a difference,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “We are going to have a half a dozen establishment candidates running against a half a dozen conservatives.”
Several Granite State Democrats, however, noted that Kasich might appeal to independents, who could vote in the New Hampshire primary.
“His name recognition is nil but he’s a straight talker which has lots of appeal in NH — especially as all the NH “undeclared” voters will be voting in the Republican primary,” said one, echoing another Democrat who asserted that Kasich is best-positioned, aside from Bush, to make the “electability” argument.
These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):
Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young
New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams
Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.
If he ca’t get his own party to vote for him in the primaries, who is he going to get to vote for him in the general?
SunkenCiv: I like your choices for running mates for Walker. Several of them are governors. I believe Walker is on record saying the nominee and his running mate should be governors.
America desperately needs a whole lot less political bookies and a whole lot more principled leaders.
Jones wouldn’t have won, either (witness his disastrous run in 2004 against Sen. Boxer). As it was, he barely beat (and by a plurality) the flaky moonbat leftist Michela Alioto in 1998.
Simon shouldn’t have rested on his laurels after the primary victory. The fact that CA holds its primary a shocking 8 months before the general is ludicrous. The time from primary to general should be no longer than 2, 3 months tops. It’s difficult to be in perpetual campaign mode like that for so long (especially when it’s non-Presidential). Had the primary been held in August (2002), I think Simon could’ve pulled it off, and he’d have been a better Governor than the Austrian Socialist.
Cruz-LePage is the best choice.
It WAS ludicrous, yes. The CA “primary” is in May now.
We have an early primary here in IL.
If I ever watched NBC, I’m afraid I would have another heart attack….
It’s much easier on the old ticker to read it on FR—and be able to vent when necessary
Still far too early at 6 months. Ours in TN is in August.
Cruz/Lepage might be a good choice but not the best to win, and losing means Shrillary. I helped reelect LePage by sending him several small donations, and I am not a Mainer. He won by a 48% plurality in a three way race. I would be very surprised if a Cruz/Lepage ticket could drag Maine into the GOP column. I love Ted Cruz but I don’t think he could carry a New England state. Walker might carry NH and Maine’s 2nd congressional district but I don’t believe he would need either to win.
I wouldn’t put LePage on the ticket to necessarily carry Maine, but because he is arguably the ballsiest and most no bull$hit Governor in the country. You need a pit bull VP and he fits the bill to a “T.”
NY Peter King?????
Who called Ted Cruz a "carnival barker" and said if Cruz was the GOP's presidential candidate he'd "jump off a bridge."
The guy who said the Tea Party was "hijacking" the GOP.
The liberal media's go to Republican for quotes in favor of more gun control and amnesty.
Only if Jeb starts wearing brightly colored pantsuits like Hillary does he have a chance of beating her. It’s a mystery why he is still wearing the dull grey suits.
I dont think Bush can beat the beast. Others in the field could. A fresh “face” could energize voters.
What are these GOP People smoking?
Have they moved the GOP Headquarters to Colorado?
Amsterdam.
I agree he was a nutcase when he identified himself as Republican and decided to run, IN THE PRIMARY, as a party reformer.
But, as a big city mayor, he was about as clean and as good as any city can hope for - the guy before him, Tom Bradley, was Coleman Young level corrupt - they had to force a newspaper to shut down because it was getting too close to exposing Bradley. Rudy, and like it or not, Bloomberg, are the only other decent big city mayors that I can think of.
How many times will it take to learn? McCain, Romney...if Bush gets the nomination, I’m taking a pass for the first time in my life. So I hope they aren’t counting on my vote in this fictional piece.
Jeb is pro-Amnesty, and Hillary is pro-Amnesty. Jeb is pro-Common Core, and Hillary is pro-Common Core. Jeb is personally profiting from Obamacare, and Hillary is personally profiting from Obamacare. There are differences between the two, but those differences are not big enough to make me care whether we get stuck with a big government liberal who adopted Florida as his home state or a big government liberal who adopted New York as her home state.
If he could beat Hillary but probably can’t win the Republican nomination, what does that tell us about him?
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