You need to check Apple history in the past four years. You're out of date. . . But then you said you don't follow it. Apple has been pretty spot on. They are guiding conservative now because of the China situation and really cannot guess what's happening there. No one can.
That’s true about china..
You are correct, I have not followed it in several years, back when I was trading tech...
Today I just look for any sort of unusual chart activity and then do DD on options and news. If it looks like a bouncer I will start a position.
I presently am only 20% in the market...I see nothing but bad...