Posted on 07/27/2015 6:29:46 PM PDT by Kaslin
This should answer the question of why Donald Trump resonates with the Republican base. Despite having criticized Mitt Romney for being too hardline on immigration in 2012, Trump has until very recently embraced the hardline positions — and those turn out to be very popular among GOP voters. A new poll from CNN shows that normalizing the illegals who have been living here gets 55% support from the general public, but 64% of Republicans prefer deportation:
The poll also finds Trump’s positions on immigration are at odds with those of most Americans, but may be providing him a boost in the Republican nomination contest. Overall, 56 percent say that U.S. policies on immigration should largely focus on developing a plan that would allow illegal immigrants with jobs to become legal residents, while 42 percent prioritize stopping the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S. and deporting those already here. That’s a significant increase on the side of allowing immigrants living the U.S. illegally to become legal residents, up from 49 percent in February.
Among the majority who say U.S. policy should focus on a path to legal residency, 72 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, that dips to 41 percent among those who think the focus ought to be on border security. …
The CNN/ORC poll reveals massive partisan divides in opinions on immigration, however, with Trump’s campaign capitalizing on the imbalance in his bid for the Republican nomination. Nearly three quarters of Democratic registered voters (72 percent) say the country’s immigration policies should focus on allowing immigrants in the country illegally to become legal residents, while just 38 percent of Republican registered voters agree.
This issue sharply divides Republican preferences in the race for the party’s nomination. Among those Republican registered voters who say that the focus of immigration policy should be helping illegal residents become legal ones, 19 percent back Jeb Bush for the party’s presidential nomination, 13 percent support Trump. Among those who say the focus should be border security and deportation, 23 percent support Trump, 13 percent Bush.
This is why snarky shots at Trump and his celebrity status don’t really address the reality of his attraction to the base. Certainly some of this is driven by the nativist-and-worse fringes of the political spectrum, but at 64%, the hardline position obviously appeals across a broad spectrum of the electorate, or at least in the superficial and odd construction of the question from CNN. The poll doesn’t ask about sequencing and it conflates border security with deportation, so the question is quite a bit tilted. The stark difference between Republicans and nearly every other demographic in the poll still cannot be entirely explained away by claims of push-polling.
The problem for those who want the 2016 cycle to be all about immigration is that they’re much more marginalized than this number shows — even among Republicans. The same poll puts immigration second-to-last among issues specified for the entire sample at 10%, barely edging out foreign policy (!) at 9%. The largest issue for voters in 2016 will be the economy — at 43%, almost doubling the runner-up, health care (22%).
But what about Republicans? Immigration actually comes in dead last among Republicans in this survey at 9%. The economy gets 44%, with terrorism a very distant second at 17%. Among self-identified conservative voters, it comes in … second-to-last, at 14%. Three times as many conservative voters cited the economy as the most important issue, 42%, and even health care manages to edge immigration at 16%. There are no demos in this poll where immigration scores more than 14% in the general public. Among registered voters, the numbers shift slightly but the ranking stays the same. Immigration simply isn’t a priority to anyone in this election, not even among non-white voters (13%, with 45% citing the economy).
Greg Sargent writes that the GOP/Dem divide on immigration reflects an “intractable divide” between voters in both parties:
Now, it’s certainly possible that GOP support for deportation is inflated somewhat by the inclusion of securing the border on that side of the question. But even when the question is framed a bit less starkly, as a recent Post/ABC News poll did, a majority of Republicans does not think the undocumented should be allowed to live and work here even if they pay a fine and meet other requirements. This should not obscure the fact that a substantial number of Republicans are, in fact, open to legalization; it’s just that more of them apparently aren’t.
And as such, what the CNN numbers again confirm is that there is a deep and intractable divide between the two parties on what to do about the undocumented population. This fundamental underlying difference matters far more than Donald Trump’s vicious rhetoric, which (assuming he doesn’t run as a third party candidate) will likely prove ephemeral.
Actually, what this poll shows is that while Republicans and Democrats have a wide gap on policy, there’s a large consensus that this isn’t the most pressing issue facing the US at the moment. Voters are probably tired of the rancor around this subject and would like to see it resolved in some manner, but they’re a lot more anxious about the economy than anything else — and that doesn’t bode well for the party that’s been in the White House for the last six-plus years.
Only 64%????????
Enforce the law!
Secure the borders!
Deport the illegals!!
Jail to the chief!!
Right on
That’s why GOP leaders will do exactly the opposite.
It’s CNN so it’s either rigged or the real number is 84%. I prefer landmines at the border but I;m not a republican..
Those Repubs must have a death wish for their own party, the Hispanic vote usually goes about 70% Democrat.
I think the ones in favor of legalization have a vested interest in the issue, usually financial.
Freeloading illegal alien invaders should only be allowed to live in SOLID BLUE states. Only a lowlife commie pig scumbag from Kenya would send them to RED states in order to change the demographics of that state.
The simple reason is that both parties have been complicit in flooding the country with foreigners and refusing to enforce our laws and borders.
The Democrats represent the illegal aliens.
The GOP represents the employers of illegal aliens.
No one represents the citizens.
Trump stepped into that vacuum.
We have been screaming for years for enforcement.
The feckless politicians refuse until we accept amnesty for the illegals and their employers.
Time for many more to be Cantorized.
Who knew, I’m a nativist or worse.
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25% of Mexico is in the U.S.
20% of El Salvador is in the U.S.
The Catholic bishops don’t think it’s enough.
That means the invaders vote about 70% pro-abortion, which is why the leading pro-abortion Catholic bishops want more and more and more invaders.
90% of Americans want to see CNN liars hanging from lampposts.
Let me up the ante. The priority must be that no matter how we decide the legal status of those who came here in violation of federal law and who stayed here in violation of federal law, we must NOT under any circumstances all allow any of these people the right to vote, NOT NOW, not in the FUTURE. Never.
I just wanted to chime in with a tangent. We have heard Jeb and a few others saying we can’t deport X million people, and that it would cost X number of dollars.
The thing they never talk about is, once a serious, concerted effort to deport illegal aliens begins, others will begin to “self-deport.” We know this can happen, because it has been done before. Eisenhower’s administration implemented a horribly-named, but very effective, deportation program. That program deported roughly 1 million people here illegally using less than 1,000 immigration agents over the span of a decade. It’s estimated another 500,000 self-deported in the wake of the crackdown. That’s one person leaving for every two made to leave.
If even 500,000 illegal aliens could be sent home each year at that ratio, that’s 750k per year including self-deportation. In 8 years, assuming the borders are secured, the problem could be cut basically in half.
As far as the cost of deporting the non-self deporters...what price tag is too great to pay for the rule of law, rewarding legal immigrants, and protecting American workers? There’s an old famous quote (that I can’t remember exactly), that is along the lines of “cost should not be thought of here, and success is the only measure worth considering”, or something like that.
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