Posted on 07/30/2015 3:34:09 AM PDT by expat_panama
To understand the economy, you've got to resort to psychology. Throughout the recovery, forecasters — including those at the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund — have repeatedly overestimated the economy's strength. They've predicted faster economic growth than has occurred.
The main reason for the errors, I have argued, is that the forecasters have underestimated the influence of the financial crisis and Great Recession on people's confidence. Lower confidence reduced Americans' willingness to spend. My argument has applied to the United States. Some new figures now suggest that the same phenomenon operates globally.
The figures come from the Pew Research Center, which interviewed 45,435 adults in 40 countries about their economic outlook. Almost seven years after Lehman's collapse, attitudes remain remarkably downbeat.
[snip]
What we have is a global funk. It's a hangover from the financial crisis and Great Recession, not gloom so much as worry and restraint. Because the economic damage — lost jobs, lower profits, foreclosed mortgages, depressed trade — exceeded anything experienced since the Great Depression, people now prepare for the unknown more than before. In practice, they save more and spend less.
The shifting psychology confounds economic models, based (as most are) on earlier business cycles. Instead of a vigorous recovery, we get the opposite.
[snip]
The Pew data convince me that this vicious circle, long at work in the United States, has its international counterpart.
Of course, countries' feeble confidence also reflects local circumstances. Only 13% of Brazilians rate their economy good; the causes surely include high inflation and a host of scandals that have rocked the country.
By contrast, confidence in China remains high (90% rate the economy good), even though growth has recently slowed. One possible explanation is that the Chinese still give more weight to past experience.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
In the event of a civil war, a U.S. manufacturing system that is no longer capable of producing anything in large quantities might offer the best chance of success for the side I would want to win the war.
China. That may be why they say they're happy.
The gloBULList slugs that run industry want a “free” market to set prices (high hopefully) for their manufactured goods and unfettered ( i.e. no tariffs) to sell anywhere to anyone. Then paradoxically these “captains of industry” they want to fix labor rates at a low price to maximize profits. When that fixed price doesn’t attract any takers they call Americans lazy and worthless and demand importation of both skilled ( h-1B visa ) and unskilled ( wetbacks) to fulfill their slavish wet dreams. F em all.
Very true, machines must be built thus providing higher quality jobs than the menial labor they replaced.
Oppressive government stifles innovation, innovation that would be creating new jobs in high demand.
Several of us old FReepers lived well off the computer revolution - let's hope we can regain our economic freedom so our children don't have to try to low-bid labor.
No, the state is not nearly as all powerful as the moron left likes to believe it is. The Chinese population is not stupid and they know how to find out what's happening. Their reported 'happiness' may either be that they see themselves as being a lot better off than before because of the huge shift there toward freedom, or they're not in the habit of being honest w/ foreign pollsters. Either way, info is like the economy. It can not be managed by the State for long.
Two words: GOVERNMENT SPENDING
“What we have is a global funk. It’s a hangover from the financial crisis and Great Recession, not gloom so much as worry and restraint. Because the economic damage — lost jobs, lower profits, foreclosed mortgages, depressed trade — exceeded anything experienced since the Great Depression, people now prepare for the unknown more than before. In practice, they save more and spend less.”
Having heard the stories of Grandparents that made it safely through The Great Depression, and taking their advice to heart, and myself, having made it through the 1970’s and Carter - *SPIT* - I’m well prepared to handle anything that Life or Mother Government throws my way.
I’m not HAPPY about it; I wish things were better for others, but d@mmit - as long as we’re not nuking one another, I feel fine. And when that starts, all bets are off, anyways.
Not to sound like Pollyanna, but Gee-Whiz! One can STILL make their way here in America. One can still thrive and get ahead with only the basics of Economics under their belt; i.e., live below your means, or at a minimum don’t spend more than you make.
There is no way in hell that those IN the wagon are going to suddenly jump out and start PULLING the wagon with the rest of us! So, for me and my house, we’re making sure Mother Government doesn’t get one thin dime more than we’re already paying through confiscatory taxes and fees. (Which are also taxes, BTW.)
There is PLENTY you can do to improve your lot in life. I am not giving up or giving in to the @sshats running the show! :)
*Steps Off Soapbox*
In a few simple words - greedy, selfish, incompetent, corrupt, self-serving, ignorant, stupid and evil politicians.
My meaning was CONUS-centric and not global nor of the entire universe.
But, yes, learn Mandarin.
Not everyone... But obviously too many...
The real evil is people voting for someone else to pay more taxes for more goodies for themselves.
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