Donald Trump's wild claim: Unemployment is 42%

CNN Money ^ | September 28, 2015 | Heather Long

[2ndDivisionVet]

The official U.S. unemployment rate is 5.1% -- the lowest in seven years -- but Donald Trump calls that a "joke."

On Monday, he claimed he'd seen numbers that show America's real unemployment rate is as high as 42%.

How does he arrive at such a wild figure?

Trump appears to be looking at the number of American adults not working. Period.

Out of about 251 million American adults, roughly 102 million -- or 40.6% -- aren't working.

But, of course, there are a lot of reasons people don't work. They could be disabled, in college, at home raising kids or retired.

And you wouldn't include those groups in the unemployment rate, which tries to capture how many people are actively looking for work and can't find it....

[BobL]

The unemployment rate is actually somewhere between 5.1% and 40.6%.

It is DEFINITELY not the full 40.6%, as my wife isn’t working and does not care to work. It is also DEFINITELY not 5.1%, as that number is very subjective (based in large part on judgement calls made by federal contractors during telephone surveys) and clearly has been manipulated by Obama.

But what has done here, just like Immigration, is PUT THE ISSUE ON THE TABLE, as the other Republicans seem TOTALLY INCAPABLE of campaigning against the Dems, at this point.

[LongWayHome]

We all know it’s not 5%. It’s between 12%-15%....and perhaps slightly more if you count the underemployed.

[jwalsh07]

Well, it took 35 posts but you hit the salient point. Employment among old folks is increasing because ZIRP has sucked them dry. Young folks continue to play video games in Mom’s basement.

[volunbeer]

I realize numbers (and charts) can be manipulated, but that is an excellent graphic that shows what many of us believe to be true - what in the hell are we doing to our children?

Sad.

[kevao]

The BLS still calculates the unemployment rate which includes discouraged and marginally attached workers. It’s the U-6 number, as opposed to the U-3 number, which is the official rate. See here:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

The U-6 in August 2015 was 10.3%.

I hadn’t checked the U-6 number in a while, and am surprised it is so low. However, with 99 weeks of unemployment insurance, the disability fraud game, and the ease with which you can get food stamps these days, perhaps far more people than I realized have left the workforce for good, willingly, and thus are no longer considered “marginally attached.”

[Chickensoup]

I remember you saying it. I agreed.

[Lopeover]

Ooooooooo, wild!!! You mean honest! 😆

[Chickensoup]

Remembering the high unemployment in the late seventies which hit about 9% and the higher unemployment in the mid eighties which hit 10% and looking at today I would have to say at least double those rates. I do not recall all the people out and around back then. I see young men and women out and about without a job to go to.

[Chickensoup]

Remembering the high unemployment in the late seventies which hit about 9% and the higher unemployment in the mid eighties which hit 10% and looking at today I would have to say at least double those rates. I do not recall all the people out and around back then. I see young men and women out and about without a job to go to.

[oincobx]

Interesting to see folks apparently longing for the last days of the Clinton administration when the unemployment rate reached its all time low point of about 32.5% (based on this measure of labor force particpation).

[Stand Watch Listen]

David Stockman Shock Blog: The Real Unemployment Rate Is 42.9% (Jun 30,2015)

If you have 212 million Americans of working age(16 and 68) and you have 93 million out of work so the math is easy. At 44.2 % its worse than the Great Depression of 1932. When unemployment was 25% in 1932-33, there were not any federal welfare/entitlement funds provided. The populace experienced true unemployment and did without means of most government support. Charitable organizations provided some meals, some shelters, some relief. Nowadays with all the welfare/entitlements provided in various ways, it’s believable we have 42% unemployment as the food stamps/Section 8housing/Income Tax/child care/disability programs remove any incentives to work for sustenance.

And the ones still working, feel like fools for working hard to enable the takers, the moochers to exist in their present lifestyle.

[roadcat]

In college and grad school: about 20 million
Housewives: about 20 million
Retired, under 65: about 10 million
In jail: about 2.5 million

That "Housewives" needs to be updated to include "House husbands" who stay at home while the wife works. Quite a few of them, and acceptable to young people nowadays. (Not in my day, but things have changed.)

[Stand Watch Listen]

David Stockman Shock Blog: The Real Unemployment Rate Is 42.9% (Jun 30,2015)

Stockman:It’s true, the BLS data is made up (Feb 7, 2012)

If you have 212 million Americans of working age(16 and 68) and you have 93 million out of work so the math is easy. At 44.2 % its worse than the Great Depression of 1932. When unemployment was 25% in 1932-33, there were not any federal welfare/entitlement funds provided. The populace experienced true unemployment and did without means of most government support. Charitable organizations provided some meals, some shelters, some relief. Nowadays with all the welfare/entitlements provided in various ways, it’s believable we have over 40% unemployment as the food stamps/Section 8housing/Income Tax/child care/disability programs remove any incentives to work for sustenance.

And the ones still working, feel like fools for working hard to enable the takers, the moochers to exist in their present lifestyle.

[terycarl]

Anyone who believes that the unemployment rate in this country is anywhere near 5% is either sadly misinformed, totally naive, or both.....42% a little too high but 25% is about accurate.

[luvbach1]

Ignores the significant number who have given up looking for work.

[faithhopecharity]

Ttump is much closer to the correct figure than the administration’s ridiculous lies. Alas, the Great Obama Depression grinds on relentlessly as ( except for a few specialized situations/locations ) there are few, if any jobs for even very highly qualified people who want to work. No amount of Obama Big Lies changes this most unfortunate reality for millions and millions and millions of unemployed Americans.

[2ndDivisionVet]

We’re one of the few exceptions.

[4rcane]

If labor participation rate is 60%. Why isn’t unemployment rate 40%

[4rcane]

I feel like this is a Emperor have no Clothes moment, where Trump is that little kid who points out the obvious.

Gawd, he’s so damn right. It should be 40%, not the insane 5% that seem to exclude so many people to make it low

[4rcane]

For a long time I used the U6 number, which is 10-16%, but even this number exclude lots of working age people, so I want to thank Trump for pointing out the obvious mistake of using the official numbers