Posted on 10/08/2015 12:47:48 PM PDT by VinL
Will Ted Cruz pick up Trump’s supporters if the mogul starts to fade? Many, if not most, reporters seem to think so. Cruz himself may think so. The data, however, strongly suggest this a fool’s errand.
As I’ve written elsewhere (here, most recently), Trump supporters come from all factions of the GOP. Indeed, most polls show that Trump runs better among self-described moderates than among very conservative voters. Cruz, however, has always been a candidate of the Tea Party/very conservative base. Virtually every poll shows that he is best thought of by very conservative voters, who number about a third of the party nationwide.
Moreover, so far he draws almost all of his support from self-described Tea Party voters who are an even smaller number. Despite what the media tell you, the polls are clear that Tea Partiers and very conservative voters are a minority within the GOP by a large margin.
Cruz’s troubles can best be seen in the PPP national poll of GOP primary voters released this morning. While this is only one poll, it shows what every other poll to date has shown regarding the huge differences between Cruz’s and Trump’s support. Cruz is favored by 7 percent of PPP poll respondents. That number jumps to 15 percent among Tea Partiers, good enough to put him in third place. But that’s only 18 percent of the sample.
Sixty-eight percent say they are not Tea Party supporters, and Cruz’s support slumps to a mere five percent among them. This distinction is seen even more starkly in a question only PPP asks. PPP asks GOP voters which they prefer in a nominee, a candidate who is the most conservative on the issues or one with the best chance of beating the Democrat.
Thirty-six percent say they want the most conservative candidate, and Cruz polls a respectable 14 percent among them. Fifty-one percent choose electability, however, and only an anemic two percent of these voters choose Cruz. This pattern – Cruz only appeals to the very conservative voter – holds no matter how you slice the electorate. He gets 15 percent among very conservative voters, again good enough for third. But that’s only thirty percent of the national GOP electorate. His support drops to 5 percent among the largest ideological faction, somewhat conservatives, and plummets to a mere three percent among moderates and liberals....
Cruz has based his entire career on the premise that very conservative voters are the ignored majority among Republicans. That may be true in the Republican South, but it is not true nationally. The very image that draws many Republicans to him repels or annoys a larger number.
To put it in terms he might understand, a majority of Republican voters have more in common with Mitch McConnell than with him. Until he realizes that and does something to make those voters like him, Cruz will remain a polarizing figure who has no chance to become the nominee, let alone President.
Trump supporters are the base, not the moderates. This guy is not paying attention. Moderates don’t scream like banshees like Trumps supporters do. The moderates are still busy pontificating and expostulating and carefully discussing everything.
The thrill is gone, moderates. Trump will be the next president unless forcefully removed from the scene by something or someone.
They say Maxwell Perkins could tell if a book was great literature by reading one page. If these pundits would watch 5 minutes of Trump with open eyes and ears, they would see what’s happening. Basically, they care more about themselves and extending their petty little undeserved careers than they do about the country.
Yes I know
Any in 1986 you were crying about Reagan selling out the Conservative movement.
No one but God is perfect. If you demand perfection in politics prepare to die frustrated and angry.
That is brilliant.
whats your point? You don’t think the media is obnoxious in its attempted takedown of trump?
Hey, I have said that often. I was simply responding to the post saying Cruz is very principled. I know he is, but he can not ignore his rich donors if he wants to stay in the race. Just want to make clear even Cruz is not perfect. Reagan? I only voted for him 2 times, and regret could'nt do it 3 times or more.
BUMP!
And of course you have no problem increasing H1-B visa’s five fold. It only hurts the middle class, so no biggie!
Henry is wrong. Cruz would get much of Trumps supporters. But since he wouldn’t also get all that crossover dem and indy support, it won’t help him much.
okay, fair enough, who do you call credible?
It was a long time ago, but in 1999, Trump openly supported nationalized health care.
Not so long ago, in 2008, he enthusiastically supported Barack Obama.
TWO years ago Trump donated $25,000 to help put former DNC Chairman and campaign director for both Clintons Terry McAuliffe, in the Virginia Governor's mansion. Only two years ago.
And you guys are hoping and wishing that he'd do something like appoint Cruz to the SC if he's president.
In 1999, 2008, and 2013, Cruz held the same convictions he does today because he is guided by a political compass.
It's anybody's guess as to where Trump will stand on any issue in 2018, or 2020. Folks willing to vote for Trump are voting for what they hope Trump will be.
Two years ago he was instrumental in putting a DNC toadie in a governorship.
People can't know what they're voting for in Trump, any more than the man in the moon. You can know what you're voting for in Cruz. 1999, 2008, and 2013. Same principle, same stance.
You should only be willing to vote for what you want to win. There's way too much evidence that a lot of the things Trump likes are things I want to lose.
And I only vote for what I want to win.
Yeah?
Is that why 72% of Republican voters disapprove of Boehner and Mitch McConnell? Say, how is Linda Graham, who is lockstep with Mitch McConnell, doing in the polls these days?
What a silly article.
Cruz isn’t going to pick up Trump supporters, because Trump is not going anywhere.
He is in this race to the end, and he is running to win.
He just reiterated that, about 15 minutes ago on of all places MSNBC. Which has a very good interview of him, by all five or so hosts.
He said that he is in this race to win it, and he is never going to stand down. He said it was media bias, it even came up.
I completely agree with him.
He said clearly, and Joe Scarborough repeated, he is in this to win this.
He is leading in very single poll. All of them.
He is not going to stand down. He’s going to the the next president.
The outsiders, mostly. Trump, Carson, Fiorina. Anybody that’s made a career in politics runs into the credibility problem in 2016. And that’s just about the rest of the field.
I would say being a long time crony in business is a career in politics.
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