If you can be that certain, you should be just as certain as to who will be the nominee.
Who?
That is a bit silly on your part.
I think we can agree for certain that George Pataki won't be the nominee, right? I mean, we both know that a lot of candidates run for President for reasons other than winning. Often they simply do it to boost their name ID to get a TV or radio gig. Heck, Hermain Cain did it last cycle to promote his book (for free on supporters donations). Remember old Hermain? He was sky high in the polls this time last cycle and had a lot of naive people believing he was a serious candidate. He wasn't, and anyone who understands politics even reasonably well knew that. Yet, there was a time, even right here on FR, if you pointed out that Cain was not a serious candidate you'd get blasted as some establishment RINO.
I can only guess as to who the nominee will be, but winnowing down the field isn't too difficult. I'd say Cruz and Rubio are the two most likely nominees at this point. It won't be Trump or Carson and probably not Fiorini either (though she might get a VP nod).