[LS]

No, we learned all these myths about polling were just that---myths in 2008 and 2012. There were NO "4 million conservatives" who stayed home in 2012. That myth is all based on a single article about a single district in IN. If you look at the data, Romney had MORE voters in 2012 than McCain. I have pored through these numbers, and I can't even find a small fraction who "stayed home."

But a good test of whether OH would go for Cruz is is poll number in OH. (Quinnipiac) He is at a pretty respectable 11%, but 6% say they would definitely not vote for him. But Q is really high: PPP has Cruz at 5 in OH, down one from his previous 6.

[JediJones]

Bush had 62,040,610 votes in 2004. Romney had a bit more than McCain, but still only 60,933,500. So the difference between 2004 and 2012 is either explained by people staying home, switching to Obama, going to jail or dying.

Still, that difference would not have been enough to make McCain or Romney beat Obama. Obama’s victories have been based not on Republicans staying home, but on Barry accumulating 5 to 9 million voters who seem to have never voted before.

If the Democrats hold on to at least Obama’s 2012 number, there is no way for Republicans to win without doing the same, finding voters who probably have never voted before. If they’re out there, then they have been staying home for a long time.

The only other possible strategy is to make the Democrat voters stay home or switch parties.

[JediJones]

There was some bad analysis early on after the 2012 election that claimed Romney got less votes than McCain. But it eventually proved false and only looked that way at the time because all of the vote counts hadn’t officially come in yet and the total recorded counts were a lot lower.