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Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 14 -
Institute For The Study of War ^ | 14 October 2015 | Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Posted on 10/16/2015 6:10:14 PM PDT by Lorianne

Key Takeaway: Russia’s involvement in Syria is facilitating ISIS’s territorial gains, while also strengthening Assad. Russia is supporting the Syrian regime’s offensives in Latakia, the al-Ghab Plain, and northern Hama. Russia also intensified strikes on rebel-held northwestern Aleppo, likely to set conditions for an imminent Russian-Iranian-Syrian regime offensive in the area. U.S. defense officials and local Syrian activists reported the arrival of hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Quds Force fighters and other Iranian proxy forces in Aleppo over the past few days. Russian strikes largely concentrated along the rebel-held supply route leading to the besieged regime enclaves of Nubl and Zahraa northwest of Aleppo City. If the regime can link with these enclaves, they will successfully sever the rebel-held supply route from Aleppo City to the Turkish border. Simultaneous regime offensives in both Hama and Aleppo Provinces will likely fix rebel forces along multiple fronts and prevent them from reinforcing their positions across northwestern Syria, resulting in a loss of terrain for the Syrian opposition.

ISIS is benefiting from Russia’s strikes on the Syrian opposition. On October 9, ISIS advanced 10 kilometers against rebels in northeastern Aleppo, the largest advance by ISIS in the province since August 2015. ISIS continued to conduct probing attacks against rebels northeast of Aleppo City from October 10-14. The Syrian regime and ISIS have historically leveraged one another’s offensives in order to advance against rebel forces in the northern Aleppo countryside. Both ISIS and the regime will likely capitalize on the effects of Russian airstrikes on rebels. Russian airstrikes have thus far failed to deter ISIS from launching new offensives and rather have facilitated ISIS’s seizure of new terrain.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; Russia; Syria; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; iraq; israel; jihad; kgb; kurdistan; lebanon; patricelumumbaschool; russia; russiasyria; sryac; syria; turkey; waronterror

1 posted on 10/16/2015 6:10:15 PM PDT by Lorianne
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To: Lorianne

Any islamo target is a good one. ISIS by any other name is an islamo and needs dispatched. Ivan trumps zero at this time.


2 posted on 10/16/2015 6:23:53 PM PDT by soycd
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To: Lorianne

yeah, but when all the rebels are gone and it’s Russia and ISIS, i’d put my money on the one with at least 1 jet in the air.

That would be 1 more than ISIS has.


3 posted on 10/16/2015 6:27:15 PM PDT by dp0622
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To: Lorianne
Elizabeth O'Bagy worked for the Institute for the Study of War(2013). At the same time she was affiliated with the Syrian Emergency Task Force.

It became known that she had padded her resume so she was fired from her job after which John McCain hired her as a legislative assistant.

4 posted on 10/16/2015 6:30:05 PM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: Lorianne

On another thread, someone said that Putin could be eliminating everyone bar Assad and ISIS.

Then he’ll say to Obama here’s your choice: Assad or ISIS, pick one.

I agreed with the person who commented this.


5 posted on 10/16/2015 6:38:45 PM PDT by Lucy Hamilton (Lucy from Occupied Europa)
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To: Lorianne

One might upset at this news but the liars are lying so one can not believe anything the SOBs say.


6 posted on 10/16/2015 8:53:01 PM PDT by Lion Den Dan
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To: Lorianne
Latest news I've heard is that the Soviets (yes, I'm callin' em that!) have called in the Cubans to Syria.

Just like old times! :)

7 posted on 10/16/2015 10:53:49 PM PDT by sauron ("Truth is hate to those who hate Truth" --unknown)
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To: Lorianne; sauron; SunkenCiv

Crowdsourced Geolocation and Analysis of Russian MoD Airstrike Videos from Syria
https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/articles/2015/10/05/crowdsourced-geolocation-and-analysis-of-russian-mod-airstrike-videos-from-syria/

Russia ‘reducing air strikes against Syrian rebels’ as intervention fails. The air strikes appear to have failed to give an advantage to pro-Assad military forces despite daily launches

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11934564/Russia-reducing-air-strikes-against-Syrian-rebels-as-intervention-fails.html

Russia jets accidentally target Syria regime troops: Regime positions north of Homs were mistakenly bombed.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566065-russia-jets-accidentally-target-syria-regime-troops-activists


8 posted on 10/17/2015 12:46:50 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: Lorianne

Bottom line:In support of Assad Russia is attacking more immediate goegraphical threat to Assad al qaeda terrorist force al Nusra, before turning to ISIS.Works for me.


9 posted on 10/17/2015 1:58:44 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: sauron

The Cubans will be manning the tanks, also just like last time when they fought Israel.


10 posted on 10/17/2015 3:52:40 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: chuckee

Think Putin wants to eliminate all opposition except ISIS for now - attacking ISIS would cause more unrest at home, sending even more Chechens to ISIS. Best to get the guys on the edges first, even if that ticks off our Dear Leader and his Media. Once the edges are cleaned up, wipe the others (ISIS), without having to deal with AQ et al at the same time.


11 posted on 10/17/2015 3:59:13 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Key Takeaway: Russia's involvement in Syria is facilitating ISIS's territorial gains, while also strengthening Assad.
Gosh, it's allmost as if all three are on the same side.


12 posted on 10/17/2015 11:25:38 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Weird, ain’t it?


13 posted on 10/17/2015 11:36:09 AM PDT by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (The greatest trick the Soviets ever pulled was convincing the world they didn't exist.)
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To: Lorianne

Russia remains ISIS air force.


14 posted on 10/17/2015 3:53:59 PM PDT by BeadCounter (,)
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