Posted on 11/18/2015 2:52:56 PM PST by ek_hornbeck
In a few months, after Iowa and New Hampshire begin to winnow the field, the GOP nomination race could boil down to an epic final between a candidate with a more pragmatic image, such as Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina or Jeb Bush, and a more conservative one, such as Ted Cruz, Ben Carson or Donald Trump.1
If that happens, the moderate finalist — like Mitt Romney and John McCain before him or her — will have a hidden structural advantage: the party’s delegate math and geography.
There are plenty of reasons to be cautious of national polls that show Trump and Carson leading. They may fail to screen out casual voters, for instance, and leaders at this point in past years have eventually tanked. But perhaps the biggest reason to ditch stock in these polls is that they’re simulating a national vote that will never take place.
In reality, the GOP nominating contest will be decided by an intricate, state-by-state slog for the 2,472 delegates at stake between February and June. And thanks to the Republican National Committee’s allocation rules, the votes of “Blue Zone†Republicans — the more moderate GOP primary voters who live in Democratic-leaning states and congressional districts — could weigh more than those of more conservative voters who live in deeply red zones. Put another way: The Republican voters who will have little to no sway in the general election could have some of the most sway in the primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at cookpolitical.com ...
This basically sums up why the GOP gets stuck with candidates like Bush, McCain, Romney and others with little grassroots appeal. Their delegates all come from populous, left-leaning states that almost never vote Republican in the general election.
Sounds like someone’s wet dream.
Unfortunately, the analysis is spot-on as to why we wound up with losers like Romney and McCain in the last two Presidential election cycles, and why we may be stuck with Rubio or Jeb this time around in spite of their low poll numbers. I don't like it any more than you do, but the delegate math means that we have an uphill battle in what's basically a rigged game.
It would just mean the end of the Republican party. I can’t be the only one waiting to see if they finally nominate someone decent to decide if I remain a registered Republican. I am fed up and ready to walk. This is their last chance.
It would just mean the end of the Republican party. I can’t be the only one waiting to see if they finally nominate someone decent to decide if I remain a registered Republican. I am fed up and ready to walk. This is their last chance.
Sorry for the system hiccup.
But actually, there are bonus delegates rewarded to the states that have elected Republican governors, senators, congressman, and state legislatures or that have given their votes to the GOP presidential candidate in the last election.
Either way, the article is BS. They aren't going to throw out the votes from states Republicans don't carry, and do their best to provide bonus delegates to states Republicans do win.
Simple solution, Trump wins every primary.
YES
Simple solution, Trump wins every primary.
*******************************************************
Trump OR Cruz. Their delegates at the national convention can support either candidate as needed to prevent GOPe/RINO/Rubio chicanery.
The Cheap Labor Express still expects to get their amnesty candidate.
If I recall, blue is always used for the democrat party. Is the GOPe now an arm of the democrat party? Yes!
Realistically I don’t see Cruz winning. I like him, but his poll numbers just aren’t there. If he doesn’t win IA, NH or SC he should drop out and endorse Trump, IMHO.
I’d join you and walk arm and arm out the door.
Oldplayer
I guess you’ve been missing the polls where Trump is dominating those blue states? He’s not just leading, he’s leading by 20 points all over the place.
Bush or similiar will get people the excuse to cast their vote for history — the first female prez.
[That assumes that Clinton’s health holds up. Per some articles, she is very ill. Per some recent threads, Huma cautions that Hillary is easily confused and needs ‘direction’.]
The Repube-icans aren’t going anywhere. They will survive, if only to provide a convenient doofus to stand up in each election to make the Dems look better to the libs.
We will be stuck with the McLames and Rmoneys forever. They’d rather lose to Clinton than win with a proud conservative. They would have to grow a pair if a conservative took over and I believe they will fight to stay what they are. Fight like a bunch of hair-pulling teenage girls.
If we nominate someone who has already sworn to bring in several hundred thousand “Syrians” then there is no point in voting. There is no point to a GOP. There is only a national government that has turned on its citizens and would prefer to replace them with someone, anyone, even your worst nightmare.
In such an instance GOP is finished, but then so is everything you care about. Time to humble ourselves before God and beat plowshares into swords.
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